Abstract
The present overview is the second part of the article “Runoff of Russian Rivers Under Current and Projected Climate Change: A Review,” which focuses on modern assessment of possible changes in the runoff characteristics of Russian rivers in the XXI century under projected global climate change. The article considers two assessment groups: based on (1) climate models and (2) hydrological models, using data of climate model simulations. The review mainly presents works that have been published over the last 7−8 years, since the release of the previous IPCC Assessment Report and the National Assessment Report of Roshydromet. It is noted that, in recent years, there has been a shift regarding the methodology of assessment of hydrological consequences of projected climate change—from simulations based on climate models to simulations based on regional hydrological models that allow one to simulate characteristics of the water regime of rivers over a historical period more accurately and to assess their possible changes in the future with lower uncertainty than climate models.
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INTRODUCTION
Existing assessments of possible changes in the water regime of rivers under projected climate change can be divided into two groups (for example, [34, 45]): (1) assessments based on results of modeling hydrological processes directly from climate models; (2) assessments based on simulations using hydrological models—global or regional (basin-scale models), in which data of climate model simulations are set at the input.
The advantage of the first approach is related to the fact that, when simulating the water regime of rivers in climate models, it takes into account feedbacks between hydrological terrestrial systems and other components of the climate system. These feedbacks can play an important role at climatic time scales and large spatial scales. At the same time, characteristics of the water regime of separate river basins are evaluated using climate models with significant errors and high uncertainty, which is primarily due to the errors and uncertainty of precipitation assessments at the regional and local scales, as well as considerable simplifications accepted when describing hydrological processes in climate models [45]. Improving climate models and their computational efficiency, as well as developing methods for parametrization of processes of the terrestrial hydrological cycle partly mitigate the problem. However, it still remains unsolved, which is stated in the previous Assessment Report of the IPCC Working Group I: “Owing to the simplified hydrological models in many CMIP5 climate models, the projections of runoff have large model uncertainties” [39, p. 988]. This considerably limits application of hydrological assessments carried out with climate models in engineering practices of water resources and flood risk management [46, 47, 60].
The second group of assessments is based on hydrological models, with data of simulations performed on an ensemble of climate models at the input (for example, in [44]). This scheme of successive simulations does not contain feedbacks between models of hydrological processes and models of other components of the climate system. At the same time, there is an opportunity to correct systematic errors (“bias-correction”) in the climate models-based estimates of, in particular, precipitation data, and to take into account the differences between characteristic spatial scales of hydrological and atmospheric processes with a greater degree of detail. Finally, hydrological models allow one to consider more fully the variety of physical mechanisms of the reaction of a hydrological system to climate impact, and due to this, characteristics of water regime of rivers are reproduced using an ensemble of hydrological models more accurately than with an ensemble of climate models [43, 45].
One of the fundamental scientific problems related to using hydrological models for projections of climate change impact consists in the adequate assessment of uncertainty of estimated water regime characteristics and finding ways of reducing the uncertainty. Uncertainty sources of these characteristics are connected with spread of calculated trajectories (projections) of future climate change, as well as with the uncertainty that is inherent in the hydrological model—its structure, parameters, setting of boundary conditions. It was shown in [37, 45, 57, 58] that the uncertainty in climate projections normally exceeds the uncertainty of hydrological modeling itself, although the latter should not be underestimated [26, 37]. The problem of reducing the uncertainty in climate projections and its epistemic components (model and scenario uncertainties [35]) is solved in the process of improving climate models and deepening the understanding of anthropogenic and natural factors of global warming. For hydrological models, the prospects of reducing uncertainty are related to, apart from intensifying their physical content, developing methods of testing models based on observation data over a historical period [31, 45]. Global hydrological models are not calibrated and verified against observation data due to the peculiarities of their structure, which significantly increases the uncertainty of estimates [34]. By contrast, for more physically based regional hydrological models advanced testing procedures have been developed and applied [40, 43], which drastically decreases the uncertainty of estimates of current [34] and future [31] changes in comparison with global models.
The following sections of the article provide an overview of the results of modern studies that focus on possible changes in the water regime of Russian rivers in the XXI century, obtained with the help of both approaches considered above. The thematic chapters of the previous Assessment Report of IPCC [36, 54] present these results for Russia rather poorly. The Roshydromet National Reports [1, 17] do reflect the corresponding results, but even these detailed reports pay little attention to the problems of future changes in river runoff, compared with the description of changes in other components of the climate system (for instance, the Second Roshydromet Assessment Report [1] devotes less than one page out of over 1000 pages of the report to projections of future river runoff changes, while [17] devotes to it less than one page out of 100). The authors of the present article tried to bridge this gap, first of all emphasizing the results published after the release of the international and national assessment reports.
ASSESSMENTS OF POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE RIVER RUNOFF OF RUSSIAN RIVERS IN THE XXI CENTURY CARRIED OUT FROM GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS
According to the data from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report [36, 54], the results of simulations performed with global climate models—participants of the CMIP5 experiment (hereafter referred to as CMIP5 GCMs)—consistently and with high confidence demonstrate precipitation growth in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and a corresponding increase in the mean annual runoff of large rivers, including rivers of the Russian part of the Arctic Ocean basin, by the end of the XXI century. Later publications confirm the conclusions of the report. Thus, papers [28, 41] show that under a “moderate” (RCP4.5) scenario of anthropogenic radiation impact the runoff of Russian rivers in Northern Eurasia can rise by 5–20%. Under a more “rigid” scenario RCP8.5, which describes the consequences of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the absence of adaptive measures, the direction of changes remains, but they become more extensive [29, 53]. Models within the CMIP5 GCMs ensemble demonstrate the greatest agreement of the results in terms of an increase in the runoff of Arctic rivers compared to other regions of the world [27].
The publications listed above, as a rule, generalize data of global calculations without specifying the information for the basins of certain rivers in Russia. Assessment of possible changes in the annual runoff for major river basins of Russia and the total runoff for large regions of the country are provided in [11, 18, 24], whose results formed the thematic section [8] of the Second Roshydromet Assessment Report [1].
V.Yu. Georgievsky and A.L. Shalygin [11] estimated possible changes in the mean annual and seasonal runoff of unregulated rivers in the Volga River basin based on data of an ensemble of nine global climate models—participants of the CMIP3 project. They assessed changes (anomalies) in river runoff for the period of 2011–2040 in comparison with the corresponding changes for the period of 1946–1999. The authors used climate projections under the SRES-А1В scenario of greenhouse gases emission and confirmed significant uncertainty of assessment of possible future changes in the unregulated mean annual runoff in the Volga River basin: the cross-model variation of calculated anomalies of the total annual runoff made up from –14 to +27%, with the ensemble average value of approximately +3%. One can also see considerable (tens of percent) errors in calculations of the mean annual runoff over the historical period in comparison with actual data for most models.
The authors of [24] evaluated changes in the mean annual runoff of five major rives of Eurasia (the Volga River, the Ob River, the Yenisey River, the Lena River and the Amur River) in 2080–2100 in relation to the mean annual runoff for the period of 1981–2000, also using simulation data of an ensemble of 21 GCMs-CMIP3 models under the SRES-А1В scenario of greenhouse gases emission. The authors noted that, by the end of the century, the annual runoff of the Ob River, the Yenisey River and the Lena River, averaged over the ensemble of models, will grow by 15, 20 and 25%, respectively. At the same time, the cross-model variation of the results turns out to be significant: for the Ob River, for example, the mean annual runoff anomalies vary in the range of –15 to +20%. Changes in the annual runoff of the Volga River and the Amur River, averaged over the ensemble of models, are assessed as statistically insignificant.
The study [11] used simulation data of 11 CMIP3 global climate models in order to assess possible changes in the annual runoff in the middle of the XXI century (2046–2065), compared to the average runoff over the period of 1961–1990. The assessment was carried out for the total runoff within the East European Plain and Western Siberia under the SRES-A2 scenario of anthropogenic impact. The authors note considerable errors in runoff simulations over the historical period, also when averaging over the ensemble of models. Annual runoff anomalies in Western Siberia and in the central and northern parts of the East European Plain are estimated as insignificant. At the same time, negative anomalies of the annual runoff in southern regions of the East European Plain can reach –40…–60%, according to projections based on the used global climate models.
The articles published after the release of [1] confirm the conclusions contained in the National Report about insignificant positive anomalies of the annual runoff for most of Russian territory under moderate scenarios of anthropogenic warming in the XXI century, and about great cross-model variation of the runoff values simulated using global climate models.
The article [25] uses so-called climatic runoff (multi-year averages of the difference between precipitation and evaporation), calculated on an ensemble of 26 CMIP5 GCMs, as a characteristic of the annual runoff on the territory of Russia. The authors estimated changes in the mean annual runoff for three 20-year periods of the XXI century: 2011–2030, 2041–2060 and 2080–2099 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios of anthropogenic impact in relation to the mean annual runoff over the period of 1981–2000. The study considers the basins of five major rivers of Russia (the Volga River, the Yenisey River, the Lena River, the Ob River and the Amur River), as well as the total runoff of the northern rivers (the Mezen River, the Northern Dvina River, the Onega River and the Pechora River) and the southern rivers (the Dnieper River, the Don River, the Dniester River and the Kuban River) of European Russia and rivers of North-Eastern Siberia (the Indigirka River, the Yana River, the Kolyma River and the Anadyr River). Positive anomalies of the mean annual runoff are obtained for almost all the rivers, except those of Southern Russia. The greatest positive anomalies at the end of the XXI century are obtained under the most unfavorable RCP8.5 scenario for the Lena River (34%), the Yenisey River (27%) and the total runoff of the rivers of North-Eastern Siberia (42%). At the same time, for most of the basins, ensemble average runoff changes turned out much less than the standard deviation of the cross-model variation.
S.G. Dobrovolsky [16] analyzed the available hydrologic simulation data until the end of the XXI century using 37 CMIP5 GCMs. It is shown that no model has an advantage over the rest in terms of accuracy of annual runoff calculation. Averaging over an ensemble of climate models makes it possible to decrease model uncertainty, although in general it remains high.
Annual runoff estimates simulated for 34 major rivers of Russia based on an ensemble of 24 CMIP5 GCMs for the periods of 2011–2030 and 2041–2060 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are provided in [9]. It is demonstrated that positive anomalies of the mean annual runoff are possible for most part of Russia, more significant of them occurring in North-Eastern Siberia. Negative anomalies can occur in the south of Russia (the basins of the Don River, the Kuban River, the Terek River, etc.). The simulation results for the middle of the century are provided in Fig. 1. The authors note that for most of the basins the cross-model variation significantly exceeds average anomalies over the ensemble.
Possible changes in the mean annual river runoff for the territory of Russia (from [9]).
Assessment of the impact of future climate change on water security in some Russian regions and possibilities of adaptation of water management to these changes are discussed in [17]. Based on the assessment of hydrological characteristics obtained with 24 CMIP5 GCMs, it is shown that in the XXI century significant changes in water supply in most of the countries are unlikely, but it is likely that water scarcity will increase in the basins of the Don River and the Kuban River, which may require planning measures for adaptation to these changes.
The research conducted in [56] takes an intermediate position between the methods of river runoff projections using the climate models considered above and the methods that use the regional hydrological models described below. This research presents assessments of possible changes in the high flow of Russian rivers in the XXI century. The authors used the regional climate model [55] developed at Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory in combination with the simplified global hydrodynamic model CaMa-Flood [61]. The regional climate model with a resolution of 25 km helped to simulate processes of runoff formation on major river catchments, while the CaMa-Flood model, which has a closer resolution, allows simulating flow along the channel network and flooding areas. The anomalies of maximum flow discharges were assessed for the period of 2050–2059 compared to the period of 1990–1999 for 43 gauging stations on major rivers of Russia under the RCP8.5 scenario of anthropogenic radiation impact. It is demonstrated that the most significant (up to 80%) rise in the peak snowmelt flood discharges, as well as growth of maximum inundation area (by 3–5%) can happen at the outlet gauging stations of major Siberian rivers. The south-western regions of Russia may see a decrease in the maximum snowmelt flood peak by 10–30%. Positive anomalies of maximum rainfall floods can reach 70% in the regions of Central Siberia, whereas the western regions (for instance, the Volga River basin) may see a reduction in the peak rainfall runoff by 10–20%. For approximately a half of the river basins discussed in the study, the calculated anomalies of maximum discharge are assessed as significant (in terms of the signal-to-noise ratio). The authors also demonstrated that in the middle of the XXI century one may expect an increase in the recurrence interval of flood peaks for the sites of hydroelectric facilities on the rivers of Siberia and the Far East: on average, by 20% for the floods of the recurrence intervals between 50 years and 100 years.
ASSESSMENTS OF POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE RUNOFF OF RUSSIAN RIVERS IN THE XXI CENTURY CARRIED OUT WITH REGIONAL HYDROLOGICAL MODELS
An overview of possible changes in the runoff of Russian rivers in the XXI century, simulated with regional hydrological models using climate models data, is presented below, based on publications of Russian scientific schools leading in this field: Roshydromet State Hydrological Institute (SHI), Institute of Geography of the RAS (IG RAS), Water Problems Institute of the RAS (WPI RAS).
In comparison with global climate models, regional hydrological models allow one to take better account of the variety of mechanisms of river runoff formation, the character of spatial distribution of the topography, soils, vegetation, specificity of available observational data used for model testing and other characteristics of a concrete river basin. As noted above, this implies that regional hydrological models are a more reliable tool for assessing future changes in the water regime of river basins. At the same time, application of sophisticated physically based hydrological models was constrained for a long time by the methodological complexity of numerical experiments with climate models data and insufficient computing capacity. Therefore, assessments of the hydrological consequences of climate change in Russian river basins with simple water balance models became quite widespread since they are less demanding in terms of initial information and computing resources than physically based models and describe hydrological processes with a decade or monthly time steps of calculation.
The authors of the above mentioned article [11] applied the water balance model of SHI [10] in order to assess possible changes in the water regime of unregulated rivers of the Volga River basin in the XXI century. Simulation data of two global climate models selected with a special procedure under the scenarios SRES-A2 and B1 were set at the input to the hydrological model. It was shown that in the first third of the XXI century the mean annual runoff anomaly in the Volga River basin may increase by 5–25% compared to the historical period (1946–1977), while the greatest relative increase in the runoff is likely in the southern (steppe) part of the basin.
The water balance model of IG RAS [4] was applied to assess possible changes in the river runoff in the basins of the the Volga River, the Don River [7] and the Lena River [5]. For the Volga River and the Don River, runoff changes were evaluated with climate projections simulated on two ensembles of climate models (10 and 30 models) under two pairs of scenarios of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere: CMIP3 (SRES-В1 and SRES-A2) and CMIP5 (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). It was demonstrated that in the first third of the XXI century mean annual runoff of both rivers may slight increase compared with the period of 1960–1990: by 2–10% for the Volga and 1–5% for the Don River, depending on the scenario. In combination with possible scenarios of future water consumption in the studied basins, runoff change during the indicated period of the XXI century may vary in a wider range [17]. Changes in the mean annual runoff turned out to be significantly less than its natural year-to-year changes, as well as changes due to anthropogenic impact in catchments and river channel [6]. For the Lena River, possible runoff changes were assessed using estimates on two global climate models under the SRES-A2 scenario of greenhouse gases emission [5]. Assessments were performed for the periods of 2010–2039 and 2040–2069. It was shown that changes in the mean annual runoff in the indicated periods will be insignificant, however, considerable changes in the seasonal runoff are likely to take place.
In the last decade, with the development of methods of numerical modeling in river basin hydrology, modernization of measurement technologies and accumulation of data about the specificities of hydrological processes in different natural conditions, creation of global and regional databases about the characteristics of catchments, growth of computational resources, it becomes more common to use methods of assessing hydrological consequences of climate change based on ensemble experiments with regional physically based models of river runoff formation. For the first time, the prospects of using physically based models in order to assess climate impact are formulated in the monograph of L.S. Kuchment with co-authors [20]. The large-scale international experiment ISI-MIP (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) on modeling climate change impact on natural systems, initiated by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK, Germany), gave a major impulse to the development of this direction in recent years. Below, one can see the results of assessing the water regime characteristics of Russian rivers in the XXI century obtained with the help of the physically based models developed in WPI RAS, within the ISI-MIP project.
The studies [13–15, 23, 50–52] generalize the results of application of the SWAP model for assessing climate change impact on the runoff of the following rivers of the Arctic Ocean basin: the Lena River, the Kolyma River, the Indigirka River, the Olenyok River, the Ob River, the Taz River and the Northern Dvina River.
SWAP is a Land Surface Model (LSM), which became known worldwide as a participant of a large number of major international experiments [12] and is successfully applied for describing river runoff formation.
The estimates of possible runoff changes in the Indigirka and the Olenyok River [14], the Lena River [13] and the Ob River [15], calculated with the SWAP model, are based on climate scenarios of the SRES family (A1, A2, B1, B2), averaged over the calculation data of an ensemble consisting of 16 climate models and constructed with the climate scenario generator MAGICC/SCENGEN. The Indigirka River mean annual runoff, calculated for all scenarios, can grow monotonously during the XXI century, slightly increasing by the beginning of the 2060s by 8–9%, while the Olenyok River mean annual runoff will remain relatively the same. On average, by the middle of the XXI century, the Lena River basin may see an increase in precipitation and total evaporation, whereas the river runoff may reduce, although rather slightly. Quantitative differences among the obtained results of simulations under four climate scenarios are relatively small. For the Ob-Irtysh River basin on the whole and for its separate parts, the calculated climate changes in the water balance components are relatively close. Negative anomalies of mean annual runoff in the Ob-Irtysh River basin for different scenarios can make up –11…–17% by the middle of the XXI century. The flood peak of the Ob River during summer months (June, July) may considerably decrease (by ~23%) and shift towards the beginning of summer (by 20–25 days).
The article [52] assessed changes in the water regime of the Northern Dvina River, the Kolyma River and the Indigirka River with the SWAP model and data calculated on the climate model of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the RAS [59]—the only Russian climate participating the modern climate experiments CMIP5 and CMIP6. Anomalies of the mean annual runoff for the river basins under study were calculated using the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for two periods: 2026–2045 and 2081–2100. Climate model data were corrected using five different procedures of bias-correction, which made it possible to study the sensitivity of hydrological assessments to the given source of uncertainty. Averaged over five procedures, positive anomalies of the Northern Dvina River mean annual runoff for the end of the XXI century accounted for 16 and 23% (compared to the period of 1972–2003), for the Kolyma River — 16 and 28% (compared to the period of 1978–1998), for the Indigirka River — 12 and 26% (compared to the period of 1972–1994) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. It was demonstrated that the uncertainty driven by application of various procedures of bias-correction to be used by the LSM model does not exceed 10%.
Data of climate scenarios prepared within the IS-I-MIP project were used for SWAP-based calculations of possible changes in the runoff of the Northern Dvina River, the Taz River, the Indigirka River and the Lena River in the studies [50, 51], as well as for assessment of runoff changes on the global scale and for the whole territory of the Russian Federation [23]. The simulations were carried out on the data from five global climate models obtained for four scenarios of anthropogenic impact: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. Figure 2 illustrates changes in the mean annual runoff, averaged over an ensemble of climate models and scenarios, for different periods of the XXI century compared with the historical (1971–2005) period.
Relative changes in the mean annual runoff of the Northern Dvina River, the Taz River, the Lena River and the Indigirka River, calculated with the SWAP model and averaged over an ensemble of five GCMs and four RCP scenarios, with assessment of general uncertainty of calculations for three prognostic periods. The general uncertainty here is shown by vertical segments—the intervals M ± 1.96 STD (M is the ensemble average, STD is standard deviation) (from the articles [50, 51]).
Figure 2 demonstrates that according to the obtained estimates, one may expect growth of the runoff in all the four indicated basins during the XXI century. Positive anomalies of the runoff (compared to 1971–2005) can account for 10, 11, 20, and 34% by the end of the century (which corresponds to 44, 42, 59, and 67 mm/year) for the Taz River, the Northern Dvina River, the Lena River and the Indigirka River, respectively. The general (model and scenario) uncertainty of the obtained estimates turned out to be considerably more than their averages. As mentioned in [51], the contribution of climate scenarios into the general uncertainty is half as much as the contribution of climate models for the first two projected periods. Further on, the contribution of scenario uncertainty slightly increases, but nevertheless, does not exceed model uncertainty.
Figure 3 illustrates the distribution of possible changes in the runoff, simulated with the SWAP model and averaged over an ensemble of five climate models and four RCP scenarios, on the territory of the Russian Federation. As can be seen from Fig. 3, by the end of the XXI century, one may expect an increase in the mean annual runoff on most of the territory, while a decrease is mainly possible in a number of southern regions. On average, the runoff rate in the whole territory can rise by ~48 mm/year.
Changes in the mean annual runoff on Russian territory in 2067−2099 calculated with the SWAP model, compared with the historical period (1971–2005) (estimates averaged over an ensemble of five GCMs and four RCP scenarios): (a) mm/year, (b) % (from the article [23]).
Comparison of Figs. 1 and 3a, which present absolute changes in runoff in Russia in the middle and last third of the XXI century, respectively, demonstrates that simulations based on an ensemble of climate models (Fig. 1) and simulations based on the SWAP model (Fig. 3) agree in their assessment of the general trend of river runoff changes, however, in the second case these changes are assessed as more significant.
Possibilities of the physically based model ECOMAG in terms of assessing hydrological consequences of climate change are discussed in the works [2, 3, 19, 21, 30, 38, 42, 48] on the example of the basins of Russian rivers in various natural conditions (the Lena River, the Amur River, the Selenga River, the Oka River, the Northern Dvina River, etc.).
ECOMAG is a physically based model of river runoff formation, developed by Yu.G. Motovilov [49] and widely known in the hydrological community due to participation in large-scale international experiments. For many years, it has been successfully applied by Russian scientists for hydrological predictions and forecasts [22].
ECOMAG-based assessments of possible changes in the annual and maximum runoff of the Lena River in the XXI century are considered in the articles [2, 30]. Climate change projections in the XXI century were based on the results of calculations performed on an ensemble of five CMIP5 GCMs and four scenarios of anthropogenic radiation impact (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). Changes in the Lena River annual runoff were assessed for 30-year periods: 2006–2035, 2036–2065 and 2070–2099. Data of all the climate models helped to obtain positive anomalies of the mean annual runoff in relation to the corresponding values for the period of 1971–2005. The corresponding anomalies for the end of the XXI century (2070–2099) for different climate models and RCP scenarios are in the range from 14 to 30%, those averaged over five models—from 19% for the RCP2.6 scenario to 26% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The results of numerical experiments allowed assessing the uncertainty of the assessed mean annual runoff anomalies due to the uncertainty of climate projections (Fig. 4).
Average values and 95% confidence intervals of the mean annual runoff anomalies in the Lena River, as the cumulative effect of model and scenario uncertainties of climate projections for the XXI century (based on [2]).
Numerical experiments showed a possible considerable increase in the maximum runoff of the Lena River in the XXI century. For the more “rigid” climate scenario RCP8.5, changes in the maximum runoff volume of the Lena River, which exceeds the average daily discharge of the 10-yrs recurrence interval, may increase up to 70% by the end of the XXI century (2070–2099). Averaging over five climate models lowers this growth: 15% for the 2006–2035 period, 51% for the end of the XXI century. Spring-summer snowmelt flood is projected to shift to an earlier date, which leads to increased runoff in May and growth of the total flood volume.
Regarding the basin of the Amur River, the experiments with ECOMAG and data of an ensemble of nine CMIP5 GCMs for four RCP scenarios are described in [3]. It was demonstrated that the anomalies of the Amur River mean annual runoff in the XXI century (with regard to the base period of 1986–2005), projected with a hydrological model on the data of various global climate models, differ noticeably (up to ±20–25%) under the same scenario of future radiation impact (model uncertainty). Reduction of the uncertainty of this kind can be achieved by averaging the estimates obtained using a hydrological model for the given scenario over an ensemble of climate models. The anomalies of the Amur River mean annual runoff during the XXI century, calculated with ECOMAG and averaged over the GCMs ensemble, proved insignificant in relation to runoff natural variability (Fig. 5).
Anomalies of the Amur River mean annual runoff (with reference to the base period of 1986–2005), calculated using the ECOMAG model and data of an ensemble of climate models under various RCP scenarios (based on [3]).
The authors of [21] used the ECOMAG model in order to assess possible changes in the XXI century in the water regime of the Selenga River—Baikal Lake major tributary. Such assessment became especially relevant due to the long-term low-flow period that began in this basin in 1996 and lasted for more than 20 years—which is the longest during the period of monitoring. The data of an ensemble of six CMIP5 GCMs for four RCP scenarios demonstrated that by the end of the XXI century in the Selenga River basin temperature may rise by a 1–6°С and precipitation may increase by 5–12%, depending on future scenarios of anthropogenic impact. Similar possible changes in the climate characteristics in the Selenga River basin in the XXI century can cause decreased river runoff throughout practically the whole century under each of the scenarios of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The decrease is especially fast in the second half of the century under the RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios, under which projected reduction by 20–40% with regard to the base period (1991–2005) exceed the variability of the projections over a global climate models ensemble (Fig. 6).
Anomalies of the Selenga River mean annual runoff (with reference to the base period of 1991–2005), calculated using the ECOMAG model and data of an ensemble of climate models under various RCP scenarios (based on [21]).
In [48], the role of various sources of uncertainty in the scenario projections of Selenga River runoff was investigated. It was shown that model uncertainty (differences in the data of climate models under the same RCP scenario) makes a much greater contribution into the general spread of estimated anomalies of the Selenga annual runoff in the first half of the XXI century than scenario uncertainty (difference in the data of one model under various RCP scenarios), however, the contribution of the latter increases by the end of the century.
The research conducted in [38], based on numerical experiments with ECOMAG for the Oka River and data of an ensemble of four CMIP5 GCMs for two RCP scenarios, demonstrates that possible statistically significant increase in the annual runoff by the end of the XXI century will make up 18–22% with regard to the base period (1986–2005), depending on realization of one or another scenario of anthropogenic impact. The study analyzed mechanisms of such a decrease and showed that it can occur primarily due to reduction in overland flow during the spring-summer-autumn seasons and groundwater flow during spring snowmelt (Fig. 7). Thus, winter runoff of the Oka River will increase by 5 and 3% by the middle of the XXI century, while by the end of the century it will rise by 17 and 37% under the RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 scenarios, respectively. At the same time, spring runoff will decrease by 30–50%, and summer-autumn runoff will decrease by 40–50%, depending on the RCP scenario and the period of the XXI century. On the whole, seasonal variability of the Oka runoff is characterized by earlier and lower spring floods, increased winter runoff due to soil thawing and reduced groundwater contribution to river runoff during the summer-autumn period.
Anomalies of the surface and groundwater runoff of the Oka River at the end of the XXI century with reference to the base period of 1986–2005, calculated using the ECOMAG model and data of an ensemble of climate models under the RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 scenarios (based on [38]).
In [42], hydrological modeling of changes in the Northern Dvina River runoff was performed using ECOMAG and data of 11 GCMs-CMIP3 global climate models, calculated for the SRES-А2 greenhouse gas emission scenario. The same climate model data were used in [18] mentioned above. The authors showed a possible increase in the annual runoff in the Northern Dvina River basin by 14%, which is due to the anticipated 11% rise in precipitation, while temperature rise caused a shift in floods to earlier dates.
The results of scenario calculations based on EC-OMAG and an ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs demonstrated that in the end of the XXI century in the basins of the Northern Dvina River and the Onega River the annual runoff, averaged over the ensemble of models, does not vary greatly, and at the same time, one can observe a considerable cross-model variation. Thus, under the most “rigid” RCP8.5 scenario the Onega River annual runoff volume, averaged over the ensemble of models, may decrease by 2.7% with a cross-model variation from +6 to –21%, whereas the Northern Dvina River runoff may reduce by 0.5% with a cross-model variation from +10 to –18% [19]. More pronounced changes are expected in the intra-annual runoff distribution, and manifest themselves in decreased flood maximums, shifting of floods to earlier dates by 15–35 days, and an increase in low-water discharge during the year. According to the results of calculations based on the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate model data, both basins see a prolonged winter flood period (Fig. 8).
Multi-year average hydrographs calculated with ECOMAG driven by (1) data of the meteorological reanalysis WATCH for the period of 1971–2001 and (2) data of an ensemble of 5 climate models under the RCP8.5 scenario for the period of 2070–2099 (2–6). The Northern Dvina River (above), the Onega River (below) (based on [19]).
Figure 9 summarizes assessments of possible changes in the mean annual runoff of ten major rivers of Russia in the XXI century, projected with regional hydrological models and using data from global climate models under various RCP scenarios of changes in the greenhouse gases concentration in the atmosphere. The assessments are adopted from studies [3, 7, 21, 30, 38, 50–52], published after the release of the latest climate change national reports of Roshydromet [1, 17]. Figure 9 illustrates that for most rivers changes in the mean annual runoff retain the sign throughout the XXI century and grow in absolute value by the end of the century under all the considered scenarios. The only exceptions are the Amur River and the Selenga River—predominantly rain-fed rivers, for which mean annual runoff changes under certain scenarios (except RCP8.5) change the sign during the XXI century [3, 21, 48], although these changes, as a rule, are rather small.
Anomalies (as % with reference to the base period) of the mean annual runoff of Russian rivers, calculated with hydrological models and data of an ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs under RCP scenarios of changes in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere in the XXI century (based on publications from 2017–2021).
The biggest runoff changes for all the rivers under study are projected under the worst-case RCP8.5 scenario of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in the XXI century.
For most rivers, hydrological models project positive anomalies of the mean annual runoff, most notable by the end of the XXI century for the major rivers of Eastern Siberia: the Lena River, the Indigirka River, the Kolyma River. Negative anomalies of the mean annual runoff by the end of the XXI century are projected for the the Oka River, the Selenga River and the Amur River, while with a high increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere the mean annual runoff of the the Selenga River and the Oka River may reduce by more than 20% in comparison with the historical period.
Assessments of runoff changes in the given rivers obtained with one hydrological model but data of various climate models (see, for example, the results for the Indigirka River described in [51, 52]) differ, which implies that hydrological assessments are sensitive to the ways of setting climate information. One can also observe the difference between assessments obtained with different versions of the same hydrological model (see the results for the Selenga River in [21, 48]), as well as with different hydrological models that use data of one climate models ensemble (see the results for the Lena River in [30, 50]). There is enough evidence to suggest that more stable results can be obtained with an ensemble of hydrological models, although the problems of generalization of ensemble modeling results, including the problems of hydrograph averaging, accounting for “outliers,” and other issues, which are still not studied enough in river basin hydrology, comparing to similar problems in climatology.
CONCLUSIONS
In recent years, there has been a shift regarding the methodology of assessment of hydrological consequences of projected climate change—from assessments based on climate models to ones based on regional hydrological models. Modern studies demonstrate (see, for example, overviews in [43, 45]) that regional hydrological models allow one to simulate characteristics of the water regime of rivers over a historical period more accurately and to assess their possible changes in the future with lower uncertainty than climate models. Changes in the research methodology were largely motivated by the public demand for more reliable assessments of possible changes in river runoff at the regional and local scales – spatial scales of decision making for managing water resources systems, mitigating water scarcity and flood risk. Possibilities of obtaining reliable hydrological assessment at the indicated spatial scales with climate models are not yet realized [45–47].
The article summarizes the results of works published in recent years and focusing on assessments of changes in the annual runoff and water regime of Russian rivers. Most of the overview concerns the results obtained on the data of ensemble climate experiments within the CMIP5 international project (i.e. directly from global climate models) [9, 16, 17, 25, 56] and with regional hydrological models that use data of climate models as inputs [2–4, 19, 21, 23, 30, 38, 42, 48, 50–52].
Global climate models for most river basins of Russia demonstrate an increase in the mean annual runoff by the end of the XXI century, which is especially noticeable for the rivers of the north-eastern Asian part of Russia (the Indigirka River, the Yana River, the Kolyma River, the Anadyr River), where the runoff increase, averaged over an ensemble of climate models, may reach first tens of percent under the most “rigid” (“business as usual”) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. A reduction in the mean annual runoff is projected on the rivers of Southern Russia, including the Don River, the Kuban River, the Terek River, etc. The direction of changes in the high flow coincides with the annual runoff changes, but the former prove bigger in absolute value. One can note significant model uncertainty in the river runoff assessments (their high intra-ensemble variability), which frequently exceeds runoff changes averaged over a global models ensemble.
Assessments of river runoff changes by the end of the XXI century calculated with regional hydrological models using ensemble data of global climate models demonstrate less ensemble variability. This can be explained by smoothing of inter-annual variations of external hydrometeorological impact by hydrological river basin systems. According to projections with hydrological models, most of the rivers under study will see positive anomalies in the annual runoff, which will be more pronounced by the end of the XXI century for major rivers of Eastern Siberia: the Lena River, the Indigirka River and the Kolyma River. Negative anomalies in the annual runoff by the end of the XXI century are projected for the the Oka River, the Selenga River and the Amur River. Interestingly, with a high increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere the runoff of the Selenga River and the Oka River may decrease by more than 20% compared to the historical period.
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Funding
The results for the rivers of the European part of Russia based on ECOMAG are obtained with the financial support from the Russian Science Foundation (project no. 20-77-00077). The other results are obtained within the Government order to Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, subject no FMWZ-2022-0001.
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Gelfan, A.N., Gusev, E.M., Kalugin, A.S. et al. Runoff of Russian Rivers under Current and Projected Climate Change: a Review 2. Climate Change Impact on the Water Regime of Russian Rivers in the XXI Century. Water Resour 49, 351–365 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807822030058
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807822030058