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Projecting Changes in Russian Northern River Runoff due to Possible Climate Change during the 21st Century: A Case Study of the Northern Dvina, Taz and Indigirka Rivers

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Abstract

Projected changes in river runoff due to possible climate change during the 21st century were simulated with making use of a physically-based land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections simulated by five Global Climate Models (GCMs) for each of four RCP scenarios. The Northern Dvina, Indigirka, and Taz river basins were used in the study. For each basin, 20 projections of changes in climatic river runoff were obtained for three climatic periods of the 21st century. The projected changes in climatic river runoff were analyzed together with the projected changes in climatic precipitation, incoming shortwave and longwave radiation, and evapotranspiration. The obtained hydrological projections were used to estimate their uncertainties resulting from the application of different GCMs and RCP scenarios.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We are grateful to ISI-MIP regional-scale water sector organizers for providing with data and materials. River runoff data were kindly provided by the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC), D–56068 Koblenz, Germany.

Funding

The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (project no. 16-17-10 039).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, 119333, Moscow, Russia

    O. N. Nasonova, Ye. M. Gusev, E. E. Kovalev, G. V. Ayzel & K. M. Panysheva

  2. Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography, 119991, Moscow, Russia

    K. M. Panysheva

Authors
  1. O. N. Nasonova
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  2. Ye. M. Gusev
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  3. E. E. Kovalev
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  4. G. V. Ayzel
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  5. K. M. Panysheva
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to O. N. Nasonova.

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Nasonova, O.N., Gusev, Y.M., Kovalev, E.E. et al. Projecting Changes in Russian Northern River Runoff due to Possible Climate Change during the 21st Century: A Case Study of the Northern Dvina, Taz and Indigirka Rivers. Water Resour 46 (Suppl 1), S145–S154 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807819070145

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807819070145

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