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Statistical modeling of factors associated with human deaths per road traffic accident of Jimma town, Ethiopia

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Abstract

Road traffic accidents increase at an alarming rate from time to time due to the increasing human population, and it is a severe problem worldwide. Road traffic accidents (RTAs) are prominent causes of death for the economically active population of the world. Therefore, the purpose of this study is predictions to RTA-associated risk causes and identify the spatial distribution of RTAs in the hotspot area. The traffic data were collected from the Jimma City Administration traffic police office, which documented it on a daily basis from September 2019 to September 2022. A regression model was employed to examine the variables linked to fatalities in humans. According to the Poison Regression Model, drivers between the ages of 30 and 50 had a 71% (AOR = 0.289; 95%, CI 0.175, 0.479) lower risk of a human death per accident, while drivers between the ages of 18 and 30 had a 31.6% (AOR = 1.316; 95% CI 1.03, 1.68) higher risk of a human death when compared to those who were at least 50 years old. Drivers with six to ten years of experience had a 56.1% lower risk of human fatality per RTA (AOR = 0.439; 95% CI 0.227, 0.651). Similarly, compared to driving for at least ten years, there was an 89.9% (AOR = 2.639; 95% CI 1.268, 5.497) increase in human death from traffic accidents among those with 0–5 years of experience. RTA occurrence generally varies over time and is related to pavement, human behavior, vehicle quality, and weather conditions. It is advised that policy-making government bodies who are involved in the matter pay especial attention to young drivers. The selected hotspot areas shall be taken into consideration for interventions that focus on reducing the likelihood of traffic accidents.

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Acknowledgements

The author would like to thank the Jimma University, Jimma city Administration for providing the data.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Jimma University, Institute of Technology, Jimma, Ethiopia

    Damtew Melese, Lucy Nigusie, Kabtamu Hailu, Jemal Muhammed & Dawd Ahmed

  2. Department of Mathematics, Jimma University, Collage of Natural Sciences, Jimma, Ethiopia

    Alemayehu Kibret

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  1. Damtew Melese
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  2. Lucy Nigusie
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  3. Alemayehu Kibret
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  4. Kabtamu Hailu
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  5. Jemal Muhammed
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Contributions

D.M. and L.N. were responsible for research conception and design, data collection, analysis and discussion of results A.K., K.H.1, J.M.1, D.A.1 were responsible for draft manuscript writing. All authors approved the final version of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Damtew Melese.

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Melese, D., Nigusie, L., Kibret, A. et al. Statistical modeling of factors associated with human deaths per road traffic accident of Jimma town, Ethiopia. Innov. Infrastruct. Solut. 9, 86 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41062-024-01364-1

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