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Impact of LULC changes on hydrological flow regimes and runoff coefficient in Upper Jhelum Basin, India

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Abstract

The increase in population has rapidly changed the land use, and signs of climate change are quite visible nowadays. The objective of this paper is to understand the impact of land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes on the hydrological flow regime and runoff coefficient in the Upper Jhelum Basin in India. LULC change analysis was done for three different catchments: one the upstream (Sangam), one in the middle (Ram Munshi Bagh), and a third one the downstream (Asham). Considering these three outlet points, the catchment was delineated, and LULC changes were analysed for different periods for all the catchments. The discharge data for each gauge station was utilised for Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) analysis. The analysis was done by taking pre- and post-impact flow to analyse the impact due to change in the corresponding period from 1960 to 2022. Flow duration curve, greatest hydraulic alteration factors, 30-day maximum, and 30-day minimum were selected as IHA for evaluation of historical trends in streamflow by considering LULC change in the corresponding period. The results of this study have shown that the frequency and duration of extremely low floods have increased with changing LULC. It has also altered the flow duration curve and changed the water availability pattern. There is a decrease in trend for 30-day minimum and 30-day maximum with changing LULC, and this trend is more significant when there is a rapid increase in build-up area. Annual runoff coefficients (C) were determined to determine the Correlation coefficient for different LULC classes for different periods. The results showed that with the increased built-up area, there is a positive correlation with runoff and C for all three catchments and a negative correlation with vegetation and Water/Snow/Ice. This study will be a foundation for further studies in the data-scare region of Jhelum. Policymakers have been devising the policy for decades, but with the LULC change, there is a need to design the hydraulic structure, and water management should consider the LULC change factor.

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Data availability

Data can be made available on request from the corresponding author and with permission from IFC, Kashmir Division, India.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110016, India

    Shahid Ul Islam & Sumedha Chakma

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Baba Ghulam Shah Badshah University, Rajouri, J&K, 185234, India

    Shahid Ul Islam

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  1. Shahid Ul Islam
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  2. Sumedha Chakma
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Ul Islam, S., Chakma, S. Impact of LULC changes on hydrological flow regimes and runoff coefficient in Upper Jhelum Basin, India. Sustain. Water Resour. Manag. 10, 12 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-023-00987-z

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