Skip to main content
Log in

The Impact of Cumulative Risk on Criminal Behavior Across the Life Course

  • ORIGINAL ARTICLE
  • Published:
Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Individuals are differentially exposed to risk factors and the causes of criminal behavior vary from person to person. Evidence supports the idea that we should track exposure to individual risks. There is, however, less research examining whether risk factors converge to produce a cumulative effect. The current study uses Add Health data to examine both the distinct and cumulative effects of myriad theoretically informed risk factors on criminal behavior. Results reveal that certain risk factors such as drug/alcohol use, victimization, as well as prior delinquency are consistent predictors of criminal behavior across the life course. But when risks are considered cumulatively, a nonlinear association emerges wherein the predicted rate of delinquency increases dramatically when going from one to two standard deviations above the mean. We propose that it may be time to consider taking a “risk-factor-wide” approach to the study of criminal behavior.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Akers, R. L. (1977). Deviant behavior: A social learning approach. Wadsworth.

  • Anderson, E. (1999). Code of the street: Decency, violence, and the moral life of the inner city. Norton.

    Google Scholar 

  • Andershed, A. K., Gibson, C. L., & Andershed, H. (2016). The role of cumulative risk and protection for violent offending. Journal of Criminal Justice, 45, 78–84.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anderson, J. W., Johnstone, B. M., & Remley, D. T. (1999). Breast-feeding and cognitive development: A meta-analysis. The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 70, 525–535.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Appleyard, K., Egeland, B., van Dulmen, M. H., & Alan Sroufe, L. (2005). When more is not better: The role of cumulative risk in child behavior outcomes. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, 46, 235–245.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barnes, J. C. (2013). Analyzing the Origins of Life-Course-Persistent Offending: A Consideration of Environmental and Genetic Influences. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 40, 519–540.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barnes, J. C., & TenEyck, M. (2017). Pre-natal and peri-natal risk factors for delinquency. In Chrisopher J. Schreck (Ed.), Encyclopedia of juvenile delinquency and justice. Wiley-Blackwell.

  • Barnes, J. C., TenEyck, M. F., Pratt, T. C., & Cullen, F. T. (2020). How powerful is the evidence in Criminology? On whether we should fear a coming crisis of confidence. Justice Quarterly, 37, 383–409.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barnes, J. C., Jorgensen, C., Pacheco, D., & TenEyck, M., (2015). The biosocial explanation: The puzzling relationship between age and criminal behavior: A biosocial critique of the criminological status quo. In Kevin Beaver, J. C. Barnes, and Brian Boutwell (Eds.), The Nurture versus Biosocial Debate in Criminology. Sage.

  • Beaver, K. M. (2008). Nonshared environmental influences on adolescent delinquent involvement and adult criminal behavior. Criminology, 46, 341–369.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beaver, K. M. (2011). Environmental moderators of genetic influences on adolescent delinquent involvement and victimization. Journal of Adolescent Research, 26, 84–114.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beaver, K. M., Boutwell, B. B., & Barnes, J. C. (2014). Social support or biosocial support? A genetically informative analysis of social support and its relation to self-control. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 41, 453–470.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beaver, K. M., Nedelec, J. L., Barnes, J. C., Boutwell, B. B., & Boccio, C. (2016). The association between intelligence and personal victimization in adolescence and adulthood. Personality and Individual Differences, 98, 355–360.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beaver, K. M., Schutt, J. E., Boutwell, B. B., Ratchford, M., Roberts, K., & Barnes, J. C. (2009). Genetic and environmental influences on levels of self-control and delinquent peer affiliation: Results from a longitudinal sample of adolescent twins. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 36, 41–60.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beaver, K. M., Wright, J. P., & DeLisi, M. (2007). Self-control as executive function: Reformulating Gottfredson and Hirschi’s parental socialization thesis. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 34, 1345–1361.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beaver, K. M., Wright, J. P., DeLisi, M., & Vaughn, M. G. (2008). Genetic influences on the stability of low self-control: Results from a longitudinal sample of twins. Journal of Criminal Justice, 36, 478–485.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bellair, P. E., Roscigno, V. J., & McNulty, T. L. (2003). Linking local labor market opportunity to violent adolescent delinquency. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 40, 6–33.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boisvert, D., Boutwell, B. B., Barnes, J. C., & Vaske, J. (2013). Genetic and environmental influences underlying the relationship between low self-control and substance use. Journal of Criminal Justice, 41, 262–272.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bonta, J., & Andrews, D. A. (2017).The psychology of criminal conduct (6th ed.). Taylor & Francis.

  • Bronfenbrenner, U. (1979). The ecology of human development: Experiments by nature and design. Harvard University Press.

  • Cohen, L. E., & Felson, M. (1979). Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach. American Sociological Review, 44, 588–608.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cullen, F. T. (1994). Social support as an organizing concept for criminology: Presidential address to the Academy of Criminal Justice Sciences. Justice Quarterly, 11, 527–559.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cullen, F. T., Unnever, J. D., Wright, J. P., & Beaver, K. M. (2008). Parenting and self-control. In E. Goode (Ed.), Out of control: Assessing the general theory of crime (pp. 61–74). Stanford University Press.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Daigle, L. E., Beaver, K. M., & Turner, M. G. (2010). Resiliency against victimization: Results from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Journal of Criminal Justice, 38, 329–337.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deater–Deckard, K. I. R. B. Y., Dodge, K. A., Bates, J. E., & Pettit, G. S. (1998). Multiple risk factors in the development of externalizing behavior problems: Group and individual differences. Development and Psychopathology, 10, 469-493

  • Dupre, M. E. (2008). Educational differences in health risks and illness over the life course: A test of cumulative disadvantage theory. Social Science Research, 37, 1253–1266.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Evans, G. W., Li, D., & Whipple, S. S. (2013). Cumulative risk and child development. Psychological Bulletin, 139, 1342.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Farrington, D. P. (2000). Explaining and preventing crime: The globalization of knowledge—The American Society of Criminology 1999 Presidential Address. Criminology, 38, 1–24.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Farrington, D. P., Piquero, A. R., & Jennings, W. G. (2013). Offending from childhood to late middle age: Results from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development. Springer Science and Business Media.

  • Gibson, C. L., Ward, J. T., Wright, J. P., Beaver, K. M., & DeLisi, M. (2010). Where does gender fit in the measurement of self-control? Criminal Justice and Behavior, 37, 883–903.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goel, S., Shroff, R., Skeem, J., & Slobogin, C. (2021). The accuracy, equity, and jurisprudence of criminal risk assessment. Research Handbook on Big Data Law, 9–28.

  • Gottfredson, M., & Hirschi, T. (1990). A general theory of crime. Stanford University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Glueck, S., & Glueck, (1952). Delinquents in the making: Paths to prevention. Harper & Brothers.

  • Hannerz, Ulf. (1969). Soulside: Inquiries into ghetto culture and community. Columbia University Press.

  • Harris, K. M. (2009). The national longitudinal study of adolescent health (Add Health), Waves I & II, 1994–1996; Wave III, 2001–2002; Wave IV, 2007–2009. University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

    Google Scholar 

  • Harris, K. M., Halpern, C. T., Whitsel, E. A., Hussey, J. M., Killeya-Jones, L. A., Tabor, J., & Dean, S. C. (2019). Cohort profile: The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health). International Journal of Epidemiology, 48, 1415–1415k.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hawkins, J. D., Herrenkohl, T. I., Farrington, D. P., Brewer, D., Catalano, R. F., Harachi., T. W., & Cothern, L. (2000). Predictors of youth violence. U.S. Department of Justice.

  • Haynie, D. L., & Osgood, D. W. (2005). Reconsidering peers and delinquency: How do peers matter? Social Forces, 84, 1109–1130.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haynie, D. L., & Piquero, A. R. (2006). Pubertal development and physical victimization in adolescence. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 43, 3–35.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hirschi, T. (1969). Causes of delinquency. University of California Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hirschi, T., & Hindelang, M. J. (1977). Intelligence and delinquency: A revisionist review. American Sociological Review, 42, 571–587.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jacobs, B. A. (1999). Dealing crack: The social world of streetcorner selling. Northeastern University Press.

  • Jacobs, B. A., & Wright, R. (2006). Street justice: Retaliation in the criminal underworld. Cambridge University Press.

  • Jennings, W. G., Higgins, G. E., Tewksbury, R., Gover, A. R., & Piquero, A. R. (2010). A longitudinal assessment of the victim-offender overlap. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 25, 2147–2174.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kempf, K. (1993). The empirical status of Hirschi’s control theory. In F. Adler and W. S. (Eds.) New directions in criminological theory: Advances in criminological theory Vol. 4 (pp. 143–185). Transaction.

  • Knox, K. N., TenEyck, M. F., & El Sayed, S. A. (2023). The relationship between father absence and intimate partner violence victimization and perpetration: Does timing matter? Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology, 9, 71–92.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Larson, K., Russ, S. A., Crall, J. J., & Halfon, N. (2008). Influence of multiple social risks on children’s health. Pediatrics, 121, 337–344.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leist, A. K., Klee, M., Kim, J. H., Rehkopf, D. H., Bordas, S. P., Muniz-Terrera, G., & Wade, S. (2022). Mapping of machine learning approaches for description, prediction, and causal inference in the social and health sciences. Science Advances, 8, eabk1942.

  • Loeber, R., & Farrington, D. P. (2012). From juvenile delinquency to adult crime: Criminal careers, justice policy, and prevention. Oxford University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Loeber, R., Farrington, D. P., Stouthamer-Loeber, M., & Van Kammen, W. B. (1998). Antisocial behavior and mental health problems: Explanatory factors in childhood and adolescence. Psychology Press.

  • Lombroso, C. (2006). Criminal Man. Translated by Mary Gibson and Nicole Hahn Rafter. Duke University Press. (Originally published in 1876).

  • Long, J. S. (1997). Regression Models for Categorical and Limited Dependent Variables. Advanced Quantitative Techniques in the Social Sciences Number 7. Sage.

  • Makarios, M. D., & Sams, T. (2012). Social support and crime. In F. T. Cullen & P. Wilcox (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Criminological Theory (pp. 160–185). Oxford University Press.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • McGloin, J. M., Pratt, T. C., & Maahs, J. (2004). Rethinking the IQ-delinquency relationship: A longitudinal analysis of multiple theoretical models. Justice Quarterly, 21, 601–631.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McGloin, J. M., Sullivan, C. J., Piquero, A. R., & Bacon, S. (2008). Investigating the stability of co-offending and co-offenders among a sample of youthful offenders. Criminology, 46, 155–188.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McNulty, T. L., & Bellair, P. E. (2003). Explaining racial and ethnic differences in adolescent violence: Structural disadvantage, family well-being, and social capital. Justice Quarterly, 20, 1–31.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meldrum, R. C., & Barnes, J. C. (2016). Prenatel exposure to secondhand smoke and the development of self-control. Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology, 3, 243–265.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meldrum, R. C., Young, J. T., & Weerman, F. T. (2012). Changes in self-control during adolescence: Investigating the influence of the adolescent peer network. Journal of Criminal Justice, 40, 452–462.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moffitt, T. E. (1990). The neuropsychology of juvenile delinquency: A critical review. Crime and Justice: An Annual Review of Research, 12, 99–169.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moffitt, T. E. (1993). Adolescence-limited and life-course persistent antisocial behavior: A developmental taxonomy. Psychological Review, 100, 674–701.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Murray, J., & Farrington, D. P. (2010). Risk factors for conduct disorder and delinquency: Key findings for longitudinal studies. Canadian Journal of Psychiatry, 55, 633–642.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Murray, J., Shenderovich, Y., Gardner, F., Mikton, C., Derzon, J. H., Liu, J., & Eisner, M. (2018). Risk factors for antisocial behavior in low-and middle-income countries: A systematic review of longitudinal studies. Crime and Justice, 47, 255–364.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Olds, D. L., Henderson, C. R., Eckenrode, J., Kitzman, H., Luckey, D., Pettitt, L., Sidora, L., Morris, P., & Powers, J. (1998). Long-term effects of nurse home visitation on children’s criminal and antisocial behavior. JAMA, 280, 1238–1244.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Piquero, A. R., Farrington, D. P., Welsh, B. C., Tremblay, R., & Jennings, W. (2009). Effects of early family/parent training programs on antisocial behavior and delinquency. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 5, 83–120.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pratt, T. C. (2016). A self-control/life-course theory of criminal behavior. European Journal of Criminology, 13, 129–146.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pratt, T. C., & Cullen, F. T. (2000). The empirical status of Gottfredson and Hirschi’s general theory of crime: A meta-analysis. Criminology, 38, 931–964.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pratt, T. C., Cullen, F. T., Sellers, C. S., Winfree, T., Madensen, T. D., Daigle, L. E., Fearn, N. E., & Gau, J. M. (2010). The empirical status of social learning theory: A meta-analysis. Justice Quarterly, 27, 765–802.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pratt, T. C., Turanovic, J. J., Fox, K. A., & Wright, K. A. (2014). Self-control and victimization: A meta-analysis. Criminology, 52, 87–116.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robins, L. N. (1978). Sturdy childhood predictors of adult antisocial behaviour: Replications from longitudinal studies. Psychological Medicine, 8, 611–622.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rothman, K. J., & Greenland, S. (2005). Causation and causal inference in epidemiology. American Journal of Public Health, 95, S144–S150.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rowe, D. C., Jacobson, K. C., & van den Oord, E. J. C. G. (1999). Genetic and environmental influences on vocabulary IQ: Parental education level as a moderator. Child Development, 70, 1151–1162.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sampson, R. J., & Laub, J. H. (1993). Crime in the making: Pathways and turning points through life. Harvard University Press.

  • Schroeder, R. D., Giordano, P. C., & Cernkovich, S. A. (2010). Adult child-parent bonds and life course criminality. Journal of Criminal Justice, 38, 562–571.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shader, M. (2001). Risk factors for delinquency: An overview. Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention.

  • Tanner-Smith, E. E., Wilson, S. J., & Lipsey, M. W. (2013). Risk factors and crime. In Francis T. Cullen and Pamela Wilcox (Eds.), The Oxford handbook of criminological theory. Oxford University Press.

  • TenEyck, M., & Barnes, J. C. (2015). Examining the impact of peer group selection on self-reported delinquency: A consideration of active gene-environment correlation. Criminal Justice Behavior, 42, 741–762.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • TenEyck, M., & Barnes, J. C. (2018). Exploring the social and individual differences among victims, offenders, victim-offenders, and total abstainers. Victims & Offenders, 13, 66–83.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • TenEyck, M. F., El Sayed, S. A., & Barnes, J. C. (2019). The effect of absent biological father on female biological maturity: Results from a nationally representative sample of adolescents. Journal of Con- Temporary Criminal Justice, 35, 36–51.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • TenEyck, M. F., Knox, K. N., & El Sayed, S. (2023). Absent father timing and its impact on adolescent and adult criminal behavior. American Journal of Criminal Justice, 48, 193–217.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ttofi, M. M., Farrington, D. P., Piquero, A. P., & DeLisi, M. (2016). Protective factors against offending and violence: Results from a prospective longitudinal studies. Journal of Criminal Justice, 45, 1–3.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • VanderWeele, T. J., & Robinson, W. R. (2014). On the causal interpretation of race. Epidemiology, 25, 937–938.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Warr, M. (2002). Companions in crime: The social aspects of criminal conduct. Cambridge University Press.

  • Wasserman, G. A., Keenan, K., Tremblay, R. E., Coie, J. D., Herrenkohl, T. I., Lober, R., & Petechuk, D. (2003). Risk and protective factors of childhood delinquency. Child Delinquency Bulletin Series, U.S. Department of Justice, April, 1–14.

  • Wilson, W. J. (1987). The truly disadvantaged: The inner city, the underclass, and public policy. University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Winfree, L. T., & Bernat, F. P. (1998). Social learning, self-control, and substance abuse by eighth grade students: A tale of two cities. Journal of Drug Issues, 28, 539–558.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wolfgang, M. E., & Ferracuti, F. (1967). The subculture of violence: Towards an integrated theory in criminology. Tavistock.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wright, J., Beaver, K. M., DeLisi, M., & Vaughn, M. (2008a). Evidence of negligible parenting influences on self-control, delinquent peers, and delinquency in a sample of twins. Justice Quarterly, 25, 544–569.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wright, J. P., & Cullen, F. T. (2001). Parental efficacy and delinquent behavior: Do control and support matter? Criminology, 39, 677–706.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wright, J. P., Dietrich, K. N., Ris, M. D., Hornung, R. W., Wessel, S. D., Lanphear, B. P., Ho, M., & Rae, M. N. (2008b). Association of prenatal and childhood blood lead concentrations with criminal arrests in early adulthood. PLoS Medicine, 5, 732–740.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Young, B., Collier, N. L., Siennick, S. E., & Mears, D. P. (2020). Incarceration and the life course: Age-graded effects of the first parental incarceration experience. Journal of Developmental and Life- Course Criminology, 6, 256–279.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Sarah A. El Sayed.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

On behalf of all authors, the corresponding author states that there is no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

TenEyck, M.F., Barnes, J.C. & El Sayed, S.A. The Impact of Cumulative Risk on Criminal Behavior Across the Life Course. J Dev Life Course Criminology 9, 555–589 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40865-023-00243-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40865-023-00243-0

Keywords

Navigation