Skip to main content
Log in

Applying Data Science to Behavioral Analysis of Online Gambling

  • Gambling (L Clark, Section Editor)
  • Published:
Current Addiction Reports Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Purpose of Review

Gambling operators’ capacity to track gamblers in the online environment may enable identification of those users experiencing gambling harm. This review provides an update on research testing behavioral variables against indicators of disordered gambling. We consider the utility of machine learning algorithms in risk prediction, and challenges to be overcome.

Recent Findings

Disordered online gambling is associated with a range of behavioral variables, as well as other predictors including demographic and payment-related information. Machine learning is ideally suited to the task of combining these predictors in risk identification, although current research has yielded mixed success. Recent work enhancing the temporal resolution of behavioral analysis to characterize bet-by-bet changes may identify novel predictors of loss chasing.

Summary

Data science has considerable potential to identify high-risk online gambling, informed by principles of behavioral analysis. Identification may enable targeting of interventions to users who are most at risk.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

Papers of particular interest, published recently, have been highlighted as: • Of importance •• Of major importance

  1. Clark L. Disordered gambling: the evolving concept of behavioral addiction. Ann N Y Acad Sci. 2014;1327(1):46–61.

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  2. Gainsbury SM. Online gambling addiction: the relationship between internet gambling and disordered gambling. Curr Addict Rep. 2015;2:185–93.

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  3. Philander KS, MacKay T-L. Online gambling participation and problem gambling severity: is there a causal relationship? Int Gambl Stud. 2014;14:214–27.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. LaPlante DA, Nelson SE, Gray HM. Breadth and depth involvement: understanding internet gambling involvement and its relationship to gambling problems. Psychol Addict Behav. 2014;28(2):396–403.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  5. Griffiths MD. Internet gambling, player protection, and social responsibility. In: Williams RJ, Wood RT, Parke J, editors. The Routledge international handbook of internet gambling. London: Routledge; 2012. p. 227–49.

    Google Scholar 

  6. Chekroud AM, Zotti RJ, Shehzad Z, Gueorguieva R, Johnson MK, Trivedi MH, et al. Cross-trial prediction of treatment outcome in depression: a machine learning approach. Lancet Psychiatry. 2016;3(3):243–50.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  7. • Dwyer DB, Falkai P, Koutsouleris N. Machine Learning Approaches for Clinical Psychology and Psychiatry. Annu Rev Clin Psychol. 2018;14(1):91–118 Excellent primer on the history and application of machine learning in psychiatry and clinical psychology, including methodological decisions such as feature selection and cross-validation.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  8. Shaffer HJ, Peller AJ, LaPlante DA, Nelson SE, LaBrie RA. Toward a paradigm shift in internet gambling research: from opinion and self-report to actual behavior. Addict Res Theory. 2010;18(3):270–83.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Adami N, Benini S, Boschetti A, Canini L, Maione F, Temporin M. Markers of unsustainable gambling for early detection of at-risk online gamblers. Int Gambl Stud. 2013;13(2):188–204.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Ma X, Kim SH, Kim SS. Online gambling behavior: the impacts of cumulative outcomes, recent outcomes, and prior use. Inf Syst Res. 2014;25:511–27.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Philander KS. Identifying high-risk online gamblers: a comparison of data mining procedures. Int Gambl Stud. 2014;14(1):53–63.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Braverman J, Shaffer HJ. How do gamblers start gambling: identifying behavioural markers for high-risk internet gambling. Eur J Pub Health. 2012;22(2):273–8.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Dragicevic S, Percy C, Kudic A, Parke J. A descriptive analysis of demographic and behavioral data from Internet gamblers and those who self-exclude from online gambling platforms. J Gambl Stud. 2015;31(1):105–32.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  14. •• Percy C, França M, Dragičević S, d’Avila Garcez A. Predicting online gambling self-exclusion: an analysis of the performance of supervised machine learning models. Int Gambl Stud. 2016;16(2):193–210. Machine learning analysis of self-exclusion in the European GTECH dataset. Compared multiple techniques including logistic regression. A random forest model achieved highest performance (AUROC = 79%) in predicting problematic gambling.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. •• Haeusler J. Follow the money: using payment behaviour as predictor for future self-exclusion. Int Gambl Stud. 2016;16(2):246–62 The first study to consider online financial behaviours (e.g., amount and number of deposits and withdrawals) in predicting self exclusion. Used artificial neural networks as a form of machine learning to show that payment behaviours achieve a classfication rate of 72%.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. •• Luquiens A, Vendryes D, Aubin HJ, Benyamina A, Gaiffas S, Bacry E. Description and assessment of trustability of motives for self-exclusion reported by online poker gamblers in a cohort using account-based gambling data. BMJ Open. 2018;8(12):1–8 Reports behavioral tracking over a 6-year period of 1,996 online poker players who self-excluded from the winamax platform. Four machine learning models displayed modest performance differentiating gamblers by their stated reason for self-exclusion (gambling problems versus commercial reasons).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  17. Hayer T, Meyer G. Internet self-exclusion: characteristics of self-excluded gamblers and preliminary evidence for its effectiveness. Int J Ment Health Addict. 2011;9(3):296–307.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. McCormick AV, Cohen IM, Davies G. Differential effects of formal and informal gambling on symptoms of problem gambling during voluntary self-exclusion. J Gambl Stud. 2018;34:1013–31.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  19. Braverman J, LaPlante DA, Nelson SE, Shaffer HJ. Using cross-game behavioral markers for early identification of high-risk internet gamblers. Psychol Addict Behav. 2013;27(3):868–77.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  20. Gray HM, LaPlante DA, Shaffer HJ. Behavioral characteristics of Internet gamblers who trigger corporate responsible gambling interventions. Psychol Addict Behav. 2012;26(3):527–35.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  21. Tom MA, LaPlante DA, Shaffer HJ. Does Pareto rule Internet gambling? Problems among the “vital few” & “trivial many”. J Gambl Bus Econ. 2014;8(1):73–100.

    Google Scholar 

  22. • Ivanova E, Magnusson K, Carlbring P. Deposit limit prompt in online gambling for reducing gambling intensity: a randomized controlled trial. Front Psychol. 2019;10:1–11. Randomized controlled trial in online slots gamblers, comparing gambling losses in groups who received a limit-setting prompt upon registration, before or after their first deposit, or no prompt (> 1000 per group). Prompted groups were more likely to set limits but did not differ in subsequent losses over 90-day follow-up.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  23. Xuan Z, Shaffer H. How do gamblers end gambling: longitudinal analysis of Internet gambling behaviors prior to account closure due to gambling related problems. J Gambl Stud. 2009;25(2):239–52.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  24. Ahn WY, Vassileva J. Machine-learning identifies substance-specific behavioral markers for opiate and stimulant dependence. Drug Alcohol Depend. 2016;161:247–57.

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  25. • Cerasa A, Lofaro D, Cavedini P, Martino I, Bruni A, Sarica A, et al. Personality biomarkers of pathological gambling: a machine learning study. J Neurosci Methods. 2018;294:7–14 One of the first studies to apply machine learning to classifying pathological gamblers versus healthy controls, showing 77% overall accuracy using the Big Five personality variables.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  26. Haefeli J, Lischer S, Haeusler J. Communications-based early detection of gambling-related problems in online gambling. Int Gambl Stud. 2015;15(1):23–38.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Gainsbury SM, Russell A, Hing N, Wood R, Blaszczynski A. The impact of internet gambling on gambling problems: a comparison of moderate-risk and problem Internet and non-Internet gamblers. Psychol Addict Behav. 2013;27(4):1092–101.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  28. Temcheff CE, Paskus TS, Potenza MN, Derevensky JL. Which diagnostic criteria are most useful in discriminating between social gamblers and individuals with gambling problems? An examination of DSM-IV and DSM-5 criteria. J Gambl Stud. 2016;32:957–68.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  29. Smith G, Levere M, Kurtzman R. Poker player behavior after big wins and big losses. Manag Sci. 2009;55:1547–55.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Xu J, Harvey N. Carry on winning: the gamblers’ fallacy creates hot hand effects in online gambling. Cognition. 2014;131(2):173–80.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  31. •• Leino T, Torsheim T, Pallesen S, Blaszczynski A, Sagoe D, Molde H. An empirical real-world study of losses disguised as wins in electronic gaming machines. Int Gambl Stud. 2016;16(3):470–80 A Norwegian study looking at trial-by-trial behaviour following “Losses Disguised as Wins” in land-based electronic gaming machines (EGMs). LDWs increased the likelihood of continuing betting compared with full losses.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Dixon MJ, Harrigan KA, Sandhu R, Collins K, Fugelsang JA. Losses disguised as wins in modern multi-line video slot machines. Addiction. 2010;105:1819–24.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  33. Chekroud AM, Foster D, Zheutlin AB, Gerhard DM, Roy B, Koutsouleris N, et al. Predicting barriers to treatment for depression in a U.S. national sample: a cross-sectional, proof-of-concept study. Psychiatr Serv. 2018;69(9):927–34.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  34. Auer M, Malischnig D, Griffiths M. Is “pop-up” messaging in online slot machine gambling effective as a responsible gambling strategy? J Gambl Issues. 2014;(29):1–10.

  35. Auer MM, Griffiths MD. Personalized behavioral feedback for online gamblers: a real world empirical study. Front Psychol. 2016;7(NOV):1–13.

    Google Scholar 

  36. • Wohl MJA, Davis CG, Hollingshead SJ. How much have you won or lost? Personalized behavioral feedback about gambling expenditures regulates play. Comput Human Behav. 2017;70:437–45. Intervention study in casino gamblers playing on a loyalty card, who received personalized expenditure feedback. Those gamblers who underestimated their losses showed reduced gambling over 3 month monitoring.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Wood RTA, Wohl MJA. Assessing the effectiveness of a responsible gambling behavioural feedback tool for reducing the gambling expenditure of at-risk players. Int Gambl Stud. 2015;15(2):1–16.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Wohl MJA. Loyalty programmes in the gambling industry: potentials for harm and possibilities for harm-minimization. Int Gambl Stud. 2018;18(3):495–511.

    Google Scholar 

  39. Forsstrom D, Jansson-Frijmark M, Hesser H, Carlbring P. Experiences of Playscan: interviews with users of a responsible gambling tool. Internet Interv. 2017;8:53–62.

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  40. Auer M, Reiestad SH, Griffiths MD. Global limit setting as a responsible gambling tool: what do players think? Int J Ment Health Addict. 2018:1–13. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11469-018-9892-x

  41. Hollingshead SJ, Wohl MJA, Santesso D. Do you read me? Including personalized behavioral feedback in pop-up messages does not enhance limit adherence among gamblers. Comput Human Behav. 2019;94:122–30.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. PricewaterhouseCoopers. Remote Gambling Research Interim report on Phase II [Internet]. 2017. Available from: https://about.gambleaware.org/media/1549/gamble-aware_remote-gambling-research_phase-2_pwc-report_august-2017-final.pdf. Accessed 8 July 2019.

  43. Rakow T, Heard CL, Newell BR. Meeting three challenges in risk communication. Policy Insights from Behav Brain Sci. 2015;2(1):147–56.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Funding

This work was supported by the Centre for Gambling Research at UBC core funding from the Province of British Columbia and the British Columbia Lottery Corporation (BCLC), as well as a research grant from BC Ministry of Finance to LC. XD is supported by a 4-year fellowship funding from UBC. LC receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (Canada).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Luke Clark.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of Interest

Luke Clark is the Director of the Centre for Gambling Research at UBC, which is supported by funding from the Province of British Columbia and the British Columbia Lottery Corporation (BCLC), a Canadian Crown Corporation. The BCLC and BC Government has no constraints on publishing. LC has received speaking or reviewing honoraria from Svenska Spel (Sweden), National Association for Gambling Studies (Australia), National Center for Responsible Gaming (US), and Gambling Research Exchange Ontario (Canada). He has not received any further direct or indirect payments from the gambling industry or groups substantially funded by gambling. He has received royalties from Cambridge Cognition Ltd. relating to neurocognitive testing. XD and TL report no conflicts of interest.

Human and Animal Rights and Informed Consent

This article does not contain any studies with human or animal subjects performed by any of the authors.

Additional information

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

This article is part of the Topical Collection on Gambling

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Deng, X., Lesch, T. & Clark, L. Applying Data Science to Behavioral Analysis of Online Gambling. Curr Addict Rep 6, 159–164 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40429-019-00269-9

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40429-019-00269-9

Keywords

Navigation