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The effect of meteorological variables on salmonellosis incidence in Kermanshah, West of Iran: a generalized linear model with negative binomial approach

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Abstract

Purpose

Salmonella is one of the main causes of gastroenteritis, and its incidence may be affected by meteorological variables. This is the first study about the effect of climatic factors on salmonella incidence in Kermanshah, Iran.

Methods

Data about salmonellosis cases in Kermanshah were inquired from Center for Communicable Disease Control, at the Ministry of Health and Medical Education of Iran, for the 2008 to 2018 time-frame. Meteorological variables including maximum, minimum and mean of temperature and humidity, sunshine hours and rainfall were inquired for the same time frame. Negative binomial generalized linear models (GLM) were used to assess the effect of meteorological variables on the weekly incidence of salmonellosis.

Results

During the years under study, 569 confirmed cases were registered in Kermanshah province. Study results showed a 3 % increase in salmonellosis incidence, after 1 % increase in minimum humidity in the week before (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.03; 95 % confidence interval (CI):1.02–1.05) and also a 4 % increase in incidence for 1 °C increase in mean temperature in the same week (IRR: 1.04; 95 % CI:1.02–1.06).

Conclusions

Increase in minimum humidity and mean temperature may have a role in increasing the incidence of salmonellosis in Iran.

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Funding

This study was supported by Grant No.97–429, from Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Public Health, Faculty of Health, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran

    Sairan Nili

  2. Neurology Research Center, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran

    Narges Khanjani

  3. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, 76169-13555, Kerman, Iran

    Narges Khanjani

  4. Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran

    Bahram Bakhtiari

  5. Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran

    Yunes Jahani

  6. Research Deputy of Iranian Meteorological Organization (IRIMO), Tehran, Iran

    Hamideh Dalaei

Authors
  1. Sairan Nili
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  2. Narges Khanjani
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  4. Yunes Jahani
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Contributions

NK suggested the topic, was the main supervisor, and helped in writing and editing the final manuscript. SN acquired the data, cleaned the data, analyzed the data and prepared the initial draft. BB provided scientific advice and edited the final article. YJ supervised data analysis, provided statistical consultation and edited the final manuscript. HD helped in inquiring meteorological data, cleaning the data, and writing the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Narges Khanjani.

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Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Ethics approval

The study proposal was approved by the Ethics Committee of Kerman University of Medical Science. Ethics Code: IR.KMU.REC.1397.231.

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Not applicable.

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Nili, S., Khanjani, N., Bakhtiari, B. et al. The effect of meteorological variables on salmonellosis incidence in Kermanshah, West of Iran: a generalized linear model with negative binomial approach. J Environ Health Sci Engineer 19, 1171–1177 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40201-021-00684-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40201-021-00684-z

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