Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Reliability analysis and risk assessment of a landfill slope failure in spatially variable municipal solid waste

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Quantitative assessment of landfill slope failure risk provides valuable information about slope design and risk reduction. This study presents a reliability-based analysis in which an accurate method is applied to assess slope failure risk using the stochastic finite difference method. This method incorporates the spatial variability of municipal solid waste properties due to anisotropic autocorrelation structures and evaluates the consequence associated with each failure separately. This method was evaluated using the data of the Saravan landfill (Rasht, Iran) and presenting a parametric analysis. Several Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to indicate the heterogeneity of the municipal solid waste, taking into account the shear strength and the unit weight of the municipal solid waste randomly. Finally, the safety factor, probability of failure, and risk were assessed using different analysis cases. Deterministic analysis was also performed for all modes using mean values for various municipal solid waste properties. The results show that spatial variability of municipal solid waste parameters and autocorrelation structures significantly affect the safety factor, probability of failure, and risk. Also, comparing the obtained results revealed that for the given slope, the safety factor values in deterministic analyses are overestimated compared to those of the probabilistic analyses. However, risk shows the opposite behavior.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10

Similar content being viewed by others

Abbreviations

c :

Cohesion

C :

The consequence associated with that failure

C i :

Consequence associated with every failure

COV:

Coefficient of variation

COVFS :

Coefficient of variation of the safety factor

COVP :

Coefficient of variation of properties of MSW

COVP(f) :

Coefficient of variation of probability of failure

F :

Reduction factor

FS:

Safety factor

FSdet :

Deterministic safety factor

FSst :

Stochastic safety factor

G(x i):

A random field with a standard normal distribution

k(x i):

A geotechnical property at location xi

N f :

The number of landfill slope failures

N f :

The number of realizations in which the slope is failed

N sim :

The total number of realizations

P f :

Probability of failure

R :

Risk

γ :

Unit weight

δ :

Autocorrelation distance

δ x :

Auto-correlation distance in the horizontal directions

δ y :

Auto-correlation distance in the vertical directions

μ :

Mean

σ :

Standard deviation

τ :

Shear strength

τ x :

The relative distances of two points in the horizontal direction

τ z :

The relative distances of two points in the vertical direction

ϕ :

Internal friction angle

References

  • Abd Aziz MA, Md Isa K, Ab Rashid R (2017) Pneumatic jigging: Influence of operating parameters on separation efficiency of solid waste materials. Waste Manage Res 35(6):647–655

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aziz MA, Isa KM, Miles NJ, Rashid RA (2019) Pneumatic jig: effect of airflow, time and pulse rates on solid particle separation. Int J Environ Sci Technol 16:11–22

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Babu GLS, Reddy KR, Srivastava A (2014) Influence of spatially variable geotechnical properties of msw on stability of landfill slopes. J Hazard Toxic Radioact Waste 18(1):27–37

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Babu GS, Lakshmikanthan P, Santhosh L (2015) Shear strength characteristics of mechanically biologically treated municipal solid waste (MBT-MSW) from Bangalore. Waste Manage 39:63–70

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baecher GB, Christian JT (2003) Reliability and statistics in geotechnical engineering. Wiley, Chichester

    Google Scholar 

  • Blight G (2008) Slope failures in municipal solid waste dumps and landfills: a review. Waste Manage Res 26(5):448–463

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chang M (2005) Three-dimensional stability analysis of the Kettleman Hills landfill slope failure based on observed sliding-block mechanism. Comput Geotech 32(8):587–599

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cheng H, Chen J, Chen R, Chen G, Zhong Y (2018) Risk assessment of slope failure considering the variability in soil properties. Comput Geotech 103:61–72

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chugh AK, Stark TD, DeJong KA (2007) Reanalysis of a municipal landfill slope failure near Cincinnati, Ohio, USA. Can Geotech J 44(1):33–53

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De Stefano M, Gharabaghi B, Clemmer R, Jahanfar MA (2016) Berm design to reduce risks of catastrophic slope failures at solid waste disposal sites. Waste Manage Res 34(11):1117–1125

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eid HT, Stark TD, Evans WD, Sherry PE (2000) Municipal solid waste slope failure. I: waste and foundation soil properties. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 126(5):397–407

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ering P, Babu GLS (2015) Slope stability and deformation analysis of Bangalore MSW landfills using constitutive model. Int J Geomech 16(4):04015092

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eskandari M, Homaee M, Falamaki A (2016) Landfill site selection for municipal solid wastes in mountainous areas with landslide susceptibility. Environ Sci Pollut Res 23(12):12423–12434

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Falamaki A, Shafiee A, Shafiee AH (2021) Under and post-construction probabilistic static and seismic slope stability analysis of Barmshour Landfill, Shiraz City Iran. Bull Eng Geol Environ 80(7):5451–5465

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feng S-J, Chen Z-W, Chen H-X, Zheng Q-T, Liu R (2018) Slope stability of landfills considering leachate recirculation using vertical wells. Eng Geol 241:76–85

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gharabaghi B, Singh MK, Inkratas C, Fleming IR, McBean E (2008) Comparison of slope stability in two Brazilian municipal landfills. Waste Manage 28(9):1509–1517

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Hicks MA, Nuttall JD, Chen J (2014) Influence of heterogeneity on 3D slope reliability and failure consequence. Comput Geotech 61:198–208

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang J, Lyamin AV, Griffiths DV, Krabbenhoft K, Sloan SW (2013) Quantitative risk assessment of landslide by limit analysis and random fields. Comput Geotech 53:60–67

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Itasca consulting group I (2015) FLAC fast lagrangian analysis of continua and FLAC/Slope—User’s Manual

  • Jahanfar A, Gharabaghi B, McBean EA, Dubey BK (2017) Municipal solid waste slope stability modeling: a probabilistic approach. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 143(8):04017035

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jamshidi Chenari R, Alaie R (2015) Effects of anisotropy in correlation structure on the stability of an undrained clay slope. Georisk Assess Manag Risk Eng Syst Geohazards 9(2):109–123

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Japar NSA, Aziz MAA, Razali MN (2019) Formulation of fumed silica grease from waste transformer oil as base oil. Egypt J Pet 28(1):91–96

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jiang SH, Huang J (2018) Modeling of non-stationary random field of undrained shear strength of soil for slope reliability analysis. Soils Found 58(1):185–198

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karimpour-Fard M (2019) Rehabilitation of Saravan dumpsite in Rasht, Iran: geotechnical characterization of municipal solid waste. Int J Environ Sci Technol 16(8):4419–4436

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Karimpour-Fard M, Machado SL, Shariatmadari N, Noorzad A (2011) A laboratory study on the MSW mechanical behavior in triaxial apparatus. Waste Manage 31(8):1807–1819

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karimpour-Fard M, Alaie R, Rezaie Soufi G, Machado SL, Rezaei Foumani E, Rezaei R (2021) Laboratory study on dynamic properties of municipal solid waste in saravan landfill Iran. Int J Civ Eng 19(8):861–879

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koerner RM, Soong TY (2000) Stability assessment of ten large landfill failures. Advances in transportation and geoenvironmental systems using geosynthetics. Am Soc Civ Eng. https://doi.org/10.1061/40515(291)1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Machado SL, Karimpour-Fard M, Shariatmadari N, Carvalho MF, Nascimento JC (2010) Evaluation of the geotechnical properties of MSW in two Brazilian landfills. Waste Manage 30(12):2579–2591

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mehdizadeh MJ, Shariatmadari N, Karimpour-Fard M (2020) Probabilistic slope stability analysis in Kahrizak landfill: effect of spatial variation of MSW’s geotechnical properties. Bull Eng Geol Env 79(5):2679–2695

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mehdizadeh MJ, Shariatmadari N, Karimpour-Fard M (2021) Effects of anisotropy in correlation structure on reliability-based slope stability analysis of a landfill. Waste Manage Res 39(6):795–805

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Rajesh S, Babel K, Mishra SK (2016) Reliability-based assessment of municipal solid waste landfill slope. J Hazard Toxic Radioact Waste 21(2):04016016

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Raviteja KVNS, Basha BM (2021) Characterization of variability of unit weight and shear parameters of municipal solid waste. J Hazard Toxic Radioact Waste 25(2):04020077

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Razali MN, Isa SNEM, Salehan NAM, Musa M, Abd Aziz MA, Nour AH, Yunus RM (2018b) Formulation of emulsified modification bitumen from industrial wastes. Indones J Chem 20(1):96–104

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Razali MN, Aziz MAA, Jamin NFM, Salehan NAM (2018) Modification of bitumen using polyacrylic wig waste. In: AIP Conference Proceedings, 1930(1). AIP Publishing

  • Reddy KR, Kulkarni HS, Srivastava A, Babu GLS (2013) Influence of spatial variation of hydraulic conductivity of municipal solid waste on performance of bioreactor landfill. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 139(11):1968–1972

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reddy KR, Kumar G, Giri RK, Basha BM (2018) Reliability assessment of bioreactor landfills using Monte Carlo simulation and coupled hydro-bio-mechanical model. Waste Manage 72:329–338

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sia AHI, Dixon N (2012) Numerical modelling of landfill lining system-waste interaction: implications of parameter variability. Geosynth Int 19(5):393–408

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) (1997) Engineering and design: introduction to probability and reliability methods for use in geotechnical engineering. Eng Circ 1110-2-547. US Department of the Army, Washington

  • Vanmarke EH (1983) Random fields: analysis and synthesis. MIT Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Zekkos D, Bray JD, Riemer MF (2012) Drained response of municipal solid waste in large-scale triaxial shear testing. Waste Manage 32(10):1873–1885

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhan, T. L., Chen, Y., & Ling, W. (2008) Shear strength characterization of municipal solid waste

  • Zhang Z, Wang Y, Fang Y (2020) Global study on slope instability modes based on 62 municipal solid waste landfills. Waste Manage Res 38:1389–1404

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhu H, Griffiths DV, Fenton GA, Zhang LM (2015) Undrained failure mechanisms of slopes in random soil. Eng Geol 191:31–35

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to appreciate the support and permissions received from Rasht Municipality during this research.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran

    A. Ghasemian & B. Nadi

  2. School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran

    M. Karimpour-Fard

Authors
  1. A. Ghasemian
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. M. Karimpour-Fard
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. B. Nadi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to M. Karimpour-Fard.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

There is no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Editorial responsibility: B.Thomas.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Ghasemian, A., Karimpour-Fard, M. & Nadi, B. Reliability analysis and risk assessment of a landfill slope failure in spatially variable municipal solid waste. Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol. 21, 5543–5556 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-023-05451-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-023-05451-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation