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Upper-ocean dynamical features and prediction of the super El Niño in 2015/16: A comparison with the cases in 1982/83 and 1997/98

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Abstract

The 2015/16 super El Niño event has been widely recognized as comparable to the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events. This study examines the main features of upper-ocean dynamics in this new super event, contrasts them to those in the two historical super events, and quantitatively compares the major oceanic dynamical feedbacks based on a mixed-layer heat budget analysis of the tropical Pacific. During the early stage, this new event is characterized by an eastward propagation of SST anomalies and a weak warm-pool El Niño; whereas during its mature phase, it is characterized by a weak westward propagation and a westward-shifted SST anomaly center, mainly due to the strong easterly wind and cold upwelling anomalies in the far eastern Pacific, as well as the westward anomalies of equatorial zonal current and subsurface ocean temperature. The heat budget analysis shows that the thermocline feedback is the most crucial process inducing the SST anomaly growth and phase transition of all the super events, and particularly for this new event, the zonal advective feedback also exerts an important impact on the formation of the strong warming and westward-shifted pattern of SST anomalies. During this event, several westerly wind burst events occur, and oceanic Kelvin waves propagate eastwards before being maintained over eastern Pacific in the mature stage. Mean-while, there is no evidence for westward propagation of the off-equatorial oceanic Rossby waves though the discharging process of equatorial heat during the development and mature stages. The second generation El Niño prediction system of the Beijing Climate Center produced reasonable event real-time operational prediction during 2014–16, wherein the statistical prediction model that considers the preceding oceanic precursors plays an important role in the multi-method ensemble prediction of this super.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to the three anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments, which helped improve the quality of this paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China

    Hong-Li Ren, Run Wang, Yihui Ding & Bo Lu

  2. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China

    Run Wang & Panmao Zhai

  3. CMA–NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China

    Hong-Li Ren & Bo Lu

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  1. Hong-Li Ren
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Correspondence to Hong-Li Ren.

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Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY201506013), National Natural Science Foundation of China (41606019, 41605116, and 41405080), and Project for Development of Key Techniques in Meteorological Operation Forecasting (YBGJXM201705).

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Ren, HL., Wang, R., Zhai, P. et al. Upper-ocean dynamical features and prediction of the super El Niño in 2015/16: A comparison with the cases in 1982/83 and 1997/98. J Meteorol Res 31, 278–294 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-017-6194-3

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