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Evaluation of Vegetation-Fire Dynamics in the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge, Georgia, USA, with Bayesian Belief Networks

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Abstract

Vegetation response to wildfire has been studied extensively in upland ecosystems, but fire effects on temperate wetlands are less understood. We evaluated vegetation response to extensive wildfire in wetlands of Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge (ONWR), USA, with a spatially explicit Bayesian belief network model informed with data recorded during 1990–2012. We assessed model accuracy and effects of fire frequency on vegetation composition with predictive scenarios of fire absence or a fire return interval (FRI) every 5 or 10 years during 2012–2032. In fire absence, shrubs increased 100%, primarily in the northern half of the Refuge, while the herbaceous class that was widespread in 2012 was eliminated. Areas dominated by forest during the past ~65 years were maintained with the 5- and 10-year FRI. Herbaceous-dominated areas maintained with the 5-year FRI decreased (90%) with the 10-year FRI. Shrub coverage increased with fire (17%, 5-year FRI; 20%, 10-year FRI), while scrub/shrub decreased (12%; 5-year FRI) or increased (6%; 10-year FRI). A 5-year FRI during conditions promoting severe fire may maintain the distribution of herbaceous and forested areas that followed an extensive drought and fires in 2011, and may limit scrub/shrub expansion that previously occurred with longer FRIs in the ONWR.

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Acknowledgements

Funding was provided by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the University of Maine though the Cooperative Agreement with the U.S. Geological Survey Maine Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit. We thank staff members at the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge for their assistance and generosity. The 2001 vegetation map was developed in collaboration with J. McCloskey. The manuscript was improved with a review provided by A. Calhoun and the comments of two anonymous reviewers. The datasets used in this analysis are available from the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Government.

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  1. Margaret Q. Guyette

    Present address: St. Johns River Water Management District, Bureau of Water Resource Information, P.O. Box 1429, Palatka, FL, 32178-1429, USA

Authors and Affiliations

  1. U.S. Geological Survey, Maine Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, 5755 Nutting Hall, Orono, ME, 04469-5755, USA

    Cynthia S. Loftin

  2. Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Conservation Biology, 5755 Nutting Hall, University of Maine, Orono, ME, 04469-5755, USA

    Margaret Q. Guyette

  3. Center for the Environment, Ecological Design, and Sustainability, Wright Hall, Smith College, Northampton, MA, 01063, USA

    Paul R. Wetzel

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  1. Cynthia S. Loftin
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Correspondence to Cynthia S. Loftin.

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Loftin, C.S., Guyette, M.Q. & Wetzel, P.R. Evaluation of Vegetation-Fire Dynamics in the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge, Georgia, USA, with Bayesian Belief Networks. Wetlands 38, 819–834 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13157-018-1033-6

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