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Linear and Nonlinear Causal Linkages Between Exports and Growth in Next Eleven Economies

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Abstract

Although a plethora of literature has shed light on the export-growth nexus over the past few decades, most studies have maintained the assumption of linear symmetric causal linkages. The current research contributes to the existing literature by investigating the export-growth linear and nonlinear causal relationships in Next Eleven emerging economies during the period 1960–2020. The empirical analysis is based on the Toda-Yamamoto linear causality test and the Kyrtsou-Labys nonlinear symmetric and asymmetric causality tests. The Toda-Yamamoto linear causality test suggests little evidence of significant causal relationships between exports and growth. According to the symmetric version of the Kyrtsou-Labys nonlinear causality test, the export-led growth hypothesis holds for only four countries, while the growth-led exports hypothesis is valid for five countries. When using the asymmetric version of the Kyrtsou-Labys nonlinear causality test, the obtained findings, albeit mixed, provide fresh insights into the relationship between exports and growth. The analysis particularly reveals that exports and growth are more sensitive to negative than positive shocks.

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Notes

  1. The same group introduced BRICs in 2001.

  2. Zhu and Li (2017) focused on a sample of 126 countries between 1995 and 2010, while Chrid et al. (2021) analyzed the case of 51 countries during the period 1984–2015.

  3. Only studies investigating the causal relationships between exports and output are summarized in the table. Those estimating the impact of one variable on the other have been consequently excluded.

  4. The maximum lag order is set to be 10.

  5. Awokuse and Christopoulos (2009) also developed a nonlinear causality analysis, but for a sample of industrialized economies, namely Canada, Italy, Japan, UK, and the US.

  6. Table 9 summarizes results of the three causality tests.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Northern Border University, Arar, Saudi Arabia

    Ousama Ben-Salha

  2. University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia

    Ousama Ben-Salha

  3. Economic Research Forum, Giza, Egypt

    Ousama Ben-Salha

  4. EGEI – Éthique et Gouvernance des Entreprises et des Institutions, Université Catholique de L’Ouest, Angers, France

    Abir Abid

  5. LEO, Université d’Orléans (CNRS, FRE 2014), Rue de Blois-B.P.6739 CEDEX 2, 45067, Orléans, France

    Abir Abid

  6. LR. MACMA, ISG, University of Tunis, Tunis, Tunisia

    Abir Abid

  7. ESC School of Tunis, University of Manouba, Manouba, Tunisia

    Ghassen El Montasser

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  1. Ousama Ben-Salha
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Ben-Salha, O., Abid, A. & El Montasser, G. Linear and Nonlinear Causal Linkages Between Exports and Growth in Next Eleven Economies. J Knowl Econ 14, 1194–1226 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-022-00958-3

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