Abstract
Climate feedbacks have been usually estimated using changes in radiative effects associated with increased global-mean surface temperature. Feedback uncertainties, however, are not only functions of global-mean surface temperature increase. In projections by global climate models, it has been demonstrated that the geographical variation of sea surface temperature change brings significant uncertainties into atmospheric circulation and precipitation responses at regional scales. Here we show that the spatial pattern of surface warming is a major contributor to uncertainty in the combined water vapour-lapse rate feedback. This is demonstrated by computing the global-mean radiative effects of changes in air temperature and relative humidity simulated by 31 climate models using a methodology based on radiative kernels. Our results highlight the important contribution of regional climate change to the uncertainty in climate feedbacks, and identify the regions of the world where constraining surface warming patterns would be most effective for higher skill of climate projections.
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Acknowledgements
We thank B. J. Soden for developing and providing the data of radiative kernels. We acknowledge various modeling groups for producing and providing output, the PCMDI for collecting and archiving CMIP5 dataset, the WGCM for organizing analysis activity, and the DOE of USA for supporting this dataset with the GO-ESSP. Helpful comments from C. R. Mechoso, G. R. Foltz, S.-P. Xie, W. Cai, and R. Zhang are gratefully appreciated. The Matlab and Ferret programs were used for computations, analyses, and graphics.
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Zhang, J., Ma, J., Che, J. et al. Surface warming patterns dominate the uncertainty in global water vapor plus lapse rate feedback. Acta Oceanol. Sin. 39, 81–89 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13131-019-1531-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13131-019-1531-2