Abstract
Sustainable water resource management has become increasingly challenging due to the limited availability of hydrometeorological data in remote mountainous areas, making it difficult to assess water balance and simulate runoff at various spatiotemporal scales. This study aims to assess the 30-year (1990–2019) water balance of the Chameliya Watershed in the Mahakali River Basin, Nepal, with a focus on glacier dynamics, utilizing the Spatial Process in Hydrology (SPHY) modeling tool. The data analysis disclosed that the watershed experienced positive water balance for 6 months, primarily during the monsoon season, while the remaining months exhibited negative values. Additionally, a comparison between the recent decade (2010–2019) and the late 1990s revealed an increase in hydrological components, such as discharge and precipitation, alongside a decrease in evapotranspiration and glacier melt. The dynamics of discharge disclose fluctuations among multiple contributors, with rainfall taking precedence, followed by baseflow, snowmelt, and glacier melt in descending sequence. Overall, the study offers a profound understanding of water availability in the Chameliya Watershed and highlights its dynamic changes over the study period. This knowledge holds great significance, especially in remote, inaccessible, and high-altitude regions. It also underscores the necessity of understanding Himalayan hydrological dynamics for precise flood prediction, climate risk assessment, and sustainable resource management amid global climate change.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ageta Y, Kadota T (1992) Predictions of changes of glacier mass balance in the Nepal Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau: a case study of air temperature increase for three glaciers. Ann Glaciol 16:89–94
Aieb A, Madani K, Scarpa M, Bonaccorso B, Lefsih K (2019) A new approach for processing climate missing databases applied to daily rainfall data in Soummam watershed, Algeria. Heliyon 5:e01247
Akhtar M, Ahmad NNN, Booij MJ (2008) The impact of climate change on the water resources of Hindukush Karakorum Himalaya region under different glacier coverage scenarios. J Hydrol 355:148–163
Arnold JG, Moriasi DN, Gassman PW, Abbaspour KC, White MJ, Srinivasan R, Santhi C, Harmel RD, Griensven AV, Liew M, Kannan N, Jha MK (2012) SWAT: model use, calibration, and validation. Trans ASABE 55:1491–1508
Awasthi MP (2023) Mapping and analyzing temporal variability of spectral indices in the lowland region of Far western Nepal. Water Sci Technol 00:1–18. https://doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2023.180
Awotwi A, Anornu GK, Quaye-Ballard JA, Annor T, Forkuo EK, Harris E, Agyekum J, Terlabie JL (2019) Water balance responses to land-use/land-cover changes in the Pra River Basin of Ghana, 1986–2025. CATENA 182:104129
Bajracharya AR, Bajracharya SR, Shrestha AB, Maharjan SB (2018) Climate change impact assessment on the hydrological regime of the Kaligandaki Basin, Nepal. Sci Total Environ 625:837–848
Bharati L, Gurung P, Jayakody P (2012) Hydrologic characterization of the Koshi Basin and the impact of climate change. Hydro Nepal J Water Energy Environ 11:18–22
Bookhagen B, Burbank DW (2010) Toward a complete Himalayan hydrological budget: spatiotemporal distribution of snowmelt and rainfall and their impact on river discharge. J Geophys Res 115:F03019
Cavalcante RBL, Pontes PRM, Souza-Filho PWM, Souza EBd (2019) Opposite effects of climate and land use changes on the annual water balance in the Amazon arc of deforestation. Water Resour Res 55:3092–3106
Chen J, Brissette FP, Chaumont D, Braun M (2013) Finding appropriate bias correction methods in downscaling precipitation for hydrologic impact studies over North America. Water Resour Res 49:4187–4205
Dahal P, Shrestha ML, Panthi J, Pradhananga D (2020) Modeling the future impacts of climate change on water availability in the Karnali River Basin of Nepal Himalaya. Environ Res 185:109430
Deng X, Shi Q, Zhang Q, Shi C, Yin F (2015) Impacts of land use and land cover changes on surface energy and water balance in the Heihe River Basin of China, 2000–2010. Phys Chem Earth 79:2–10
Dhital YP, Dawadi B, Kattel DB, Devkota KC (2021) Rainfall-runoff simulation of Bagmati River Basin, Nepal. Jalawaayu 1(1):61–71
Dhital YP, Jia S, Tang J, Liu X, Zhang X, Pant RR, Dawadi B (2023) Recent warming and its ecological and societal implications in Nepal. Environ Res Commun 5(3):031010
Elbeltagi A, Aslam MR, Malik A, Mehdinejadiani B, Srivastava A, Bhatia AS, Deng J (2020) The impact of climate changes on the water footprint of wheat and maize production in the Nile Delta, Egypt. Sci Total Environ 743:140770
Engelhardt M, Schuler TV, Andreassen LM (2013) Contribution of snow and glacier melt to discharge for highly glacierised catchments in Norway. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18:511–523
Guiamel IA, Lee HS (2020) Watershed modelling of the Mindanao river basin in the Philippines using the SWAT for water resource management. Civil Eng J 6:626–648
Gupta HV, Sorooshian S, Yapo PO (1999) Status of automatic calibration for hydrologic models: comparison with multilevel expert calibration. J Hydrol Eng 4:135–143
Han P, Long D, Han Z, Du M, Dai L, Hao X (2019) Improved understanding of snowmelt runoff from the headwaters of China’s Yangtze River using remotely sensed snow products and hydrological modeling. Remote Sens Environ 224(2018):44–59
Immerzeel WW, van Beek LPH, Bierkens MFP (2010) Climate change will affect the Asian water towers. Science 328:1382–1385
Immerzeel WW, van Beek LPH, Konz M, Shrestha AB, Bierkens MFP (2011) Hydrological response to climate change in a glacierized catchment in the Himalayas. Clim Change 110:721–736
Immerzeel WW, Pellicciotti F, Bierkens MFP (2013) Rising river flows throughout the twenty-first century in two Himalayan glacierized watersheds. Nat Geosci 6:742–745
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007) In: Parry ML et al (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability—contribution of working group II to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK
Karki R, Talchabhadel R, Aalto J, Baidya SK (2016) New climatic classification of Nepal. Theoret Appl Climatol 125:799–808
Kebede A, Diekkrüger B, Edossa DC (2017) Dry spell, onset and cessation of the wet season rainfall in the Upper Baro-Akobo Basin, Ethiopia. Theoret Appl Climatol 129:849–858
Khadka D, Babel MS, Shrestha S, Tripathi NK (2014) Climate change impact on glacier and snow melt and runoff in Tamakoshi basin in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. J Hydrol 511:49–60
Kim U, Kaluarachchi JJ (2009) Climate change impacts on water resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia. J Am Water Resour Assoc 45:1361–1378
Konapala G, Kao SC, Painter SL, Lu D (2020) Machine learning assisted hybrid models can improve streamflow simulation in diverse catchments across the conterminous US. Environ Res Lett 15(10):104022
Kumar P, Joshi V (2019) Modelling surface run-off response using hydrological model SWAT in the upper watershed of river Subarnarekha India. Earth Sci Malay 3:9–15
Kumari N, Srivastava A, Sahoo B, Raghuwanshi NS, Bretreger D (2021) Identification of suitable hydrological models for streamflow assessment in the Kangsabati River Basin, India, by using different model selection scores. Nat Resour Res 30(6):4187–4205
Kundu S, Khare D, Mondal A (2017) Past, present and future land use changes and their impact on water balance. J Environ Manage 197:582–596
Kure S, Jang S, Ohara N, Kavvas ML, Chen ZQR (2013) Hydrologic impact of regional climate change for the snowfed and glacierfed river basins in the Republic of Tajikistan: hydrological response of flow to climate change. Hydrol Process 27:4057–4070
Leta OT, El-Kadi AI, Dulai H, Ghazal KA (2016) Assessment of climate change impacts on water balance components of Heeia watershed in Hawaii. J Hydrol Region Stud 8:182–197
Litt M, Shea JM, Wagnon P, Steiner JF, Koch I, Stigter EE, Immerzeel WW (2019) Glacier ablation and temperature indexed melt models in the Nepalese Himalaya. Sci Rep 9:5264
Liu Y, Xinyu L, Liancheng Z, Yang L, Chunrong J, Ni W, Juan Z (2021) Quantifying rain, snow and glacier meltwater in river discharge during flood events in the Manas River Basin, China. Nat Hazards 108:1137–1158
Lutz AF, Immerzeel WW, Shrestha AB, Bierkens MFP (2014) Consistent increase in High Asia’s runoff due to increasing glacier melt and precipitation. Nat Clim Change 4(7):587–592
Manandhar S, Pandey VP, Ishidaira H, Kazama F (2013) Perturbation study of climate change impacts in a snow-fed river basin. Hydrol Process 27:3461
Moriasi DN, Arnold JG, Liew M, Bingner RL, Harmel RD, Veith TL (2007) Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Trans ASABE 50:885–900
Nash JE, Sutcliffe JV (1970) River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I—a discussion of principles. J Hydrol 10:282–290
Nepal S (2016) Impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime of the Koshi river basin in the Himalayan region. J Hydro-Environ Res 10:76–89
Nepal S, Shrestha AB (2015) Impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins: a review of the literature. Int J Water Resour Dev 31:201–218
Nepal S, Krause P, Flügel W-A, Fink M, Fischer C (2014) Understanding the hydrological system dynamics of a glaciated alpine catchment in the Himalayan region using the J2000 hydrological model. Hydrol Process 28:1329–1344
Neupane RP, Yao J, White JD (2014) Estimating the effects of climate change on the intensification of monsoonal-driven stream discharge in a Himalayan watershed. Hydrol Process 28:6236–6250
Normand S, Konz M, Merz JK (2011) An application of the HBV model to the Tamor Basin in Eastern Nepal. J Hydrol Meteorol 7(1):49–58
Ogou FK, Ojeh VN, Naabil E, Mbah CI (2022) Hydro-climatic and water availability changes and its relationship with NDVI in Northern Sub-Saharan Africa. Earth Syst Environ 6(3):681–696
Osuch M, Wawrzyniak T, Nawrot A (2019) Diagnosis of the hydrology of a small Arctic permafrost catchment using HBV conceptual rainfall-runoff model. Hydrol Res 50(1–2):459–478
Ougahi JH, Saeed S, Hasan K (2023) Assessment of hydro-climatic variables and its impact on river flow regime in the sub-basins of the upper Indus Basin. Earth Syst Environ 7(1):307–320
Panday P, Williams CA, Frey KE, Brown ME (2014) Application and evaluation of a snowmelt runoff model in the Tamor River basin, Eastern Himalaya using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) data assimilation approach. Hydrol Process 28:5337–5353
Pandey VP, Dhaubanjar S, Bharati L, Thapa BR (2019) Hydrological response of Chamelia watershed in Mahakali Basin to climate change. Sci Total Environ 650(Pt 1):365–383
Pandey VP, Dhaubanjar S, Bharati L, Thapa BR (2020) Spatio-temporal distribution of water availability in Karnali-Mohana Basin Western Nepal: hydrological model development using multi-site calibration approach (part A). J Hydrol Region Stud 29:100690
Pant RR, Zhang F, Rehman FU, Wang G, Ye M, Zeng C, Tang H (2018) Spatiotemporal variations of hydrogeochemistry and its controlling factors in the Gandaki River Basin, Central Himalaya Nepal. Sci Total Environ 622:770–782
Parajuli A, Chand MB, Kayastha RB, Shea JM, Mool PK (2015) Modified temperature index model for estimating the melt water discharge from debris-covered Lirung Glacier, Nepal. Proc Int Assoc Hydrol Sci 368:409–414
Pathak L, Pant RR, Khadka UR, Nepal J, Poudel S et al (2020) Spatial analysis of water stress and application of water poverty index (WPI) in the Mahakali River basin, Sudurpaschim Province, Nepal. Nepalese J Zool 4(2):85–94
Prakash A (2020) Retreating glaciers and water flows in the Himalayas: implications for governance, vol 400. Obs Res Found, New Delhi, India, pp 1–14
Qiu H, Niu J, Phanikumar MS (2019) Quantifying the space - time variability of water balance components in an agricultural basin using a process-based hydrologic model and the Budyko framework. Sci Total Environ 676:176–189
Santhi C, Arnold JG, Williams JR, Dugas WA, Srinivasan R, Hauck LM (2001) Validation of the SWAT model on a large river basin with point and nonpoint sources. J Am Water Resour Assoc 37:1169–1188
Shabalala ZP, Moeletsi ME, Tongwane MI, Mazibuko SM (2019) Evaluation of infilling methods for time series of daily temperature data: case study of Limpopo Province, South Africa. Climate 7(7):86
Shawul AA, Chakma S, Melesse AM (2019) The response of water balance components to land cover change based on hydrologic modeling and partial least squares regression (PLSR) analysis in the Upper Awash Basin. J Hydrol Reg Stud 26:100640
Shrestha AB, Aryal R (2011) Climate change in Nepal and its impact on Himalayan glaciers. Reg Environ Change 11:65–77
Shrestha S, Htut AY (2016) Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on hydrology of the Bago River Basin, Myanmar. Int J River Basin Manage 14:287–297
Shrestha S, Bhatta B, Shrestha M, Shrestha PK (2018) Integrated assessment of the climate and landuse change impact on hydrology and water quality in the Songkhram River Basin, Thailand. Sci Total Environ 643:1610–1622
Singh J, Knapp HV, Arnold JG, Demissie M (2005) Hydrological modeling of the Iroquois river watershed using HSPF and SWAT. J Am Water Resour Assoc 41:343–360
Srivastava A, Sahoo B, Raghuwanshi NS, Singh R (2017) Evaluation of variable-infiltration capacity model and MODIS-terra satellite-derived grid-scale evapotranspiration estimates in a river basin with tropical monsoon-type climatology. J Irrig Drain Eng 143(8):04017028
Srivastava A, Kumari N, Maza M (2020) Hydrological response to agricultural land use heterogeneity using variable infiltration capacity model. Water Resour Manage 34(12):3779–3794
Terink W, Lutz AF, Simons G, Immerzeel WW, Droogers P (2015) SPHY v 2.0: spatial processes in hydrology. Geosci Model Dev 8(7):2009–2034
Uddin K, Shrestha HL, Murthy MSR, Bajracharya B, Shrestha B, Gilani H, Pradhan S, Dangol B (2015) Development of 2010 national land cover database for the Nepal. J Environ Manage 148:82–90
Van Beek LPH, Wada Y, Bierkens MF (2011) Global monthly water stress: 1. Water balance and water availability. Water Resour Res 47(7):532
Versini PA, Pouget L, McEnnis S, Custodio E, Escaler I (2016) Climate change impact on water resources availability: case study of the Llobregat River basin (Spain). Hydrol Sci J 61:2496–2508
Wang R, Yao Z, Liu Z, Wu S, Jiang L, Wang L (2015) Snow cover variability and snowmelt in a high-altitude ungauged catchment. Hydrol Process 29:3665–3676
Wiltshire A (2013) Climate change implications for the glaciers of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalayan region. Cryosphere 8:941–958
Xu H, Luo Y (2015) Climate change and its impacts on river discharge in two climate regions in China. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 19:4609–4618
Yadav VK, Nema MK, Khare D (2022) Evaluation of SWAT model for simulating the water balance components for the Dudh Koshi River Basin in Nepal. In: Sustain of water resources: impacts and management, pp 63–77
Yan R-P, Cai Y, Li C-h, Wang X, Liu Q (2019) Hydrological responses to climate and land use changes in a watershed of the Loess Plateau, China. Sustainability 5:1443
Zhang F, Thapa S, Immerzeel WW, Zhang H, Lutz AF (2019) Water availability on the third pole: a review. Water Secur 7:100033
Zhang Y, Gao T, Kang S, Shangguan D, Luo X (2021) Albedo reduction as an important driver for glacier melting in Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas. Earth Sci Rev 220:103735
Zhu T, Ringler C (2012) Climate change impacts on water availability and use in the Limpopo river basin. Water 4:63–84
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
JN contributed research conceptualization, methodology, and first draft preparation. SP, SS, and KB performed GIS and statistical analysis. MPA critically reviewed and properly formatted the manuscript. RRP and YPD contributed with supervision, editing, and approval of the final manuscript. To make this research study publishable, all the authors equally contributed to the research work.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Nepal, J., Pant, R.R., Shrestha, S. et al. Water balance estimation and runoff simulation of Chameliya Watershed, Nepal. Environ Earth Sci 83, 117 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-024-11430-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-024-11430-7