Abstract
Climate change has significantly affected hydrological processes and increased the frequency and severity of water shortage, droughts and floods in northeast China. A study has been conducted to quantify the influence of climate change on the hydrologic process in the Tao’er River Basin (TRB), one of the most prominent regions in northeast China for water contradiction. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was calibrated and validated with observed land use and hydro-climatic data and then employed for runoff simulations at upper, middle and lower reaches of the river basin for different climate change scenarios. The results showed that a gradual increase in temperature and decrease in annual precipitation in the basin was projected for the period 2020–2050 for both representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The climate changes would cause a decrease in annual average runoff at basin outlet by 12 and 23 million m3 for RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The future runoff in the upstream and midstream of the basin during 2020–2050 would be −10.8% and −12.1% lower than the observed runoff compared to the base period for RCP4.5, while those would be −5.3% and −10.7% lower for RCP8.5. The future runoff will decrease at three hydrology stations for the assumed future climate scenarios. The results can help us understand the future temperature and precipitation trends and the hydrological cycle process under different climate change scenarios, and provide the basis for the rational allocation and management of water resources under the influence of future climate change in the TRB.
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Acknowledgements
We are grateful to the Key R&D Projects of Jilin Provincial Science and Technology Department (20200403070SF), Young Top-Notch Talent Support Program of National High-level Talents Special Support Plan, National Key R&D Program of China (NO. 2017YFC0403506), China Water Resource Conservation and Protection Project (No. 126302001000150005) and Strategic Consulting Projects of Chinese Academy of Engineering (NO.2016-ZD-08-05-02) for providing financial support for this research. We acknowledge National Climate Center for providing the data of their simulations by regional climate model. We extend our thanks to anonymous reviewers and editors for their helpful comments and suggestions.
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Sun, Jq., Li, Hy., Wang, Xj. et al. Water resources response and prediction under climate change in Tao’er River Basin, Northeast China. J. Mt. Sci. 18, 2635–2645 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-020-6635-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-020-6635-9