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Trend detection of annual precipitation of Karnataka, India during 1951–2020 based on the innovative trend analysis method

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Abstract

Water is a scarce resource on the earth, and the study of variability in precipitation is necessary for solving the issues related to water. Proper understanding of trends in annual precipitation is crucial for better management of available water sources. In the current study, the Mann–Kendall (MK) and innovative trend analysis (ITA) methods were used to detect the trends in annual rainfall for 30 synoptic stations and different meteorological subdivisions for the period of 1951–2020 for Karnataka, India. The significance of trend is also identified using the MK trend test. Furthermore, the entire time series data were classified into three sub groups to recognize the monotonic trend components based on the ITA method. The results of the MK trend test indicated that, in the first half of the time series data more stations showed decreasing trend, while in the second half, an increasing trend in annual precipitation was observed for most of the stations. In the ITA method, except for four stations, all the stations detected a significantly positive trend in annual precipitation. The spatially distributed trend for precipitation pattern for the total time series data showed the highest positive and negative trends in the southern and northern parts of the state, respectively. Six stations, namely, Bidar, Dakshina Kannada, Dharwad, Kalburgi, Udupi, and Vijayapura, exhibited instability in calculated trends. In the analysis of monotonic trends, only six stations showed monotonic trend components, while the other 24 stations and subdivisions are non-monotonic. In the current study, it was concluded that the ITA method is more sensitive than the MK trend test for detecting hidden trends.

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Funding

This research was carried out without any external funding.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Climate Resilient Agriculture, Keladi Shivappa Nayaka University of Agricultural and Horticultural Sciences, Shivamogga, 577204, Karnataka, India

    Pradeep Gopakkali, Shankarappa Sridhara, Girish R. Kashyap & Konapura Nagaraja Manoj

  2. ICAR-Central Coastal Agricultural Research Institute, Old Goa, 403402, Goa, India

    Bappa Das

Authors
  1. Pradeep Gopakkali
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  2. Shankarappa Sridhara
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  3. Girish R. Kashyap
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  4. Konapura Nagaraja Manoj
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  5. Bappa Das
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Contributions

PG Data collection, prepared methodology part and manuscript writing, SS conceptualized the manuscript, did supervision and correction of manuscript GRK analysis of data with different software. KNM references and draft, BD formal analysis and codes.

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Correspondence to Shankarappa Sridhara.

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Gopakkali, P., Sridhara, S., Kashyap, G.R. et al. Trend detection of annual precipitation of Karnataka, India during 1951–2020 based on the innovative trend analysis method. Environ Earth Sci 82, 551 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-023-11239-w

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