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Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Isparta province (Turkey) and mapping based on GIS

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Abstract

The province of Isparta is located in the southwest of Turkey and is in a seismically active belt. Many moderate and large earthquakes that occurred in the historical and instrumental periods in the region caused severe losses of life and property. This study aims to calculate the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of Isparta province, which has the potential to produce earthquakes with magnitudes of six or more due to its active tectonics. It also aims to obtain peak ground acceleration (PGA) maps. A comprehensive and homogeneous data set of Mw≥4 for the period between 1900 and March 2021 was used in the analysis. The estimation of the seismic hazard parameters was based on the Poisson method, and the peak ground acceleration values corresponding to the recurrence period of 475 years were obtained by using two different attenuation relationships. The PGA maps of both attenuation relationships were visualized in the GIS environment. The highest PGA was obtained as 0.52 g from Akkar and Çağnan formula and 0.63 g from Kalkan and Gülkan formula in the Yalvaç district, located in the north of Isparta province.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) for providing the data set used in the study. A considerable part of this study was carried out as a master’s thesis of Ms. Serap Kırım at Sakarya University, Institute of Natural Sciences.

Data availability

The data used in the study is public.

Code availability

CRISIS2007 software is available at https://ecapra.org/topics/crisis-2007.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geophysics, Sakarya University, 54187, Sakarya, Turkey

    Serap Kırım, Emrah Budakoğlu & Gündüz Horasan

Authors
  1. Serap Kırım
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  2. Emrah Budakoğlu
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  3. Gündüz Horasan
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Contributions

SK data analysis, software operation, literature review, investigation of attenuation relationships, and manuscript editing; EB literature review, analyses, preparation of figures, investigation of attenuation relationships, manuscript writing, preparation, and editing; GH methodology, mentoring, reviewing and editing, writing, revision, interpretation of figures, and manuscript finalization.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Emrah Budakoğlu.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Responsible Editor: Longjun Dong

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Kırım, S., Budakoğlu, E. & Horasan, G. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Isparta province (Turkey) and mapping based on GIS. Arab J Geosci 14, 2227 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-08653-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-08653-4

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