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Seismicity assessment in and around Syria based on instrumental data: application of Gumbel distributions and Gutenberg-Richter relationship

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Abstract

An instrumental earthquake catalog covering the time span between 1903 and 2007 and for the area bounded by 32°N–38°N and 35°E–43°E has been compiled in this research. The catalog has a magnitude of completeness (M c ) with 3.5. Least squares and statistical probability Gumbel’s techniques with different approaches have been applied on the instrumental events in order to assess the average recurrence time periods for different earthquake magnitudes. The constants a and b of Gutenberg-Richter and the average recurrence times have been computed firstly for the study area and secondly for the central and northern parts of Dead Sea fault system. The different statistical computations using Knopoff and Kagan formalism are generally in agreement and suggest an average recurrence time of 203 years for an earthquake of magnitude 7 for the region. The occurrence of large well-documented historical earthquakes in Lebanon and western Syria, the existence of active fault segments, the absence of large earthquakes during the study period, the increasing number of the low-magnitude earthquakes, and the continued accumulation of the strain since 1900 indicate therefore the probability of an earthquake occurrence of a large magnitude. This should be permanently taken into consideration in seismic hazard assessment on the local and regional scales.

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Acknowledgements

Prof. I. Othman, Director General of the Atomic Energy Commission of Syria, is thanked for his permission to publish this research work. Special thanks are due to the two anonymous reviewers for their constructive criticisms and their efforts to improve the final version of this research. This work is a scientific research no. AECS-G\FRSR/479/2010.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geology, Atomic Energy Commission of Syria, P.O. Box 6091, Damascus, Syria

    Jamal Asfahani & Ryad Darawcheh

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  1. Jamal Asfahani
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  2. Ryad Darawcheh
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Correspondence to Jamal Asfahani.

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Asfahani, J., Darawcheh, R. Seismicity assessment in and around Syria based on instrumental data: application of Gumbel distributions and Gutenberg-Richter relationship. Arab J Geosci 10, 86 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-017-2862-y

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