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Assessing Outcomes of Environmental Flows for an Estuary-Dependent Fish Species using a Novel Stochastic Population Model Approach

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Summary

Altered flow regimes remain one of the most serious threats to ecological sustainability of estuarine fish populations throughout the world. Estuary Perch (Percalates colonorum) is an estuary-dependent fish native to south-eastern Australia. The species is highly valued by recreational fishers and has greatly declined in abundance in recent decades. Strategies to recover populations include the use of environmental flows. We developed an age-based stochastic matrix population model based on the ecology of the species to explore the likely benefits of present and constructed environmental flow rules on recruitment and population response of the species in the lower Snowy River for 20 years into the future. The model outcomes indicate that the present environmental flow rules produce minimal population response and are of little benefit to recruitment of Estuary Perch. The flow prescription that produced the best modelled outcome, and that was most risk adverse to decline of females, was the annual release of 3 × 15,000 ML/day flow events, spaced 30 days apart in late winter/spring. Our approach highlights the importance of considering the whole life cycle of a species and identifying the key life history traits that can be influenced to achieve the desired conservation outcome. Although the model developed here was used to test management activities at a single site (and for a single species), it provides a novel approach that may be tailored to test and guide management activities aimed at benefiting similar flow-dependent species in estuaries throughout the world.

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Acknowledgements

We dedicate this paper to our co-author Chris Walsh who sadly passed away on the 28 March 2021. Our thoughts are with his family. We thank the East Gippsland Catchment Management Authority for funding this project and Professor Andrew Boulton (University of New England), Professor Andrew Bennett and Tarmo Raadik (Arthur Rylah Institute), and two anonymous referees for providing comments on drafts of this paper. Furthermore, we thank Ben Fanson (Arthur Rylah Institute) for providing advice on statistical analysis.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, 123 Brown Street, Heidelberg, VIC, 3084, Australia

    Daniel Stoessel, Charles R. Todd, Tim Brown & John D. Koehn

  2. Department of Primary Industries, Cnr Beach Road and Orient Street, Batemans Bay, NSW, 2536, Australia

    Chris Walsh & Dylan van der Meulen

  3. University of Tasmania, Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Tasmania, 7004, Australia

    Joel Williams

  4. East Gippsland Catchment Management Authority, 574 Main Street, Bairnsdale, VIC, 3875, Australia

    Melissa Birleson

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  1. Daniel Stoessel
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  2. Charles R. Todd
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Correspondence to Daniel Stoessel.

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Communicated by Kevin M. Boswell

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Fig. S1

Probability of spawning on a given day for fish at spawning zone by August 1 Fig. S2 Estimated proportion of eggs flushed out to sea by flow rate (ML/day) Fig. S3 Estimated period of productivity following floodplain inundation from large flows. As days are discrete in the model, the construct uses the floor of the value from the grey curve Fig. S4 The daily flow data for the Snowy River, Orbost, Victoria, Australia Fig. S5 Estuary Perch recruitment through time ( t EPR ) in the population model for a floodplain threshold of 10,000 ML day-1: a) scenario 1 and 2; b), c) and d) scenario 3; e), f) and g) scenario 4; and h), i) and j) scenario 5 from Table 2 for 10,000 ML day-1 Fig. S6 Estuary Perch recruitment through time ( t EPR ) in the population model for a floodplain threshold of 12,500 ML day-1: a) scenario 1 and 2; b), c) and d) scenario 3; e), f) and g) scenario 4; and h), i) and j) scenario 5 from Table 2 for 12,500 ML day-1 Fig. S7 Estuary Perch recruitment through time ( t EPR ) in the population model for a floodplain threshold of 15,000 ML day-1: a) scenario 1 and 2; b), c) and d) scenario 3; e), f) and g) scenario 4; and h), i) and j) scenario 5 from Table 2 for 15,000 ML day-1 Fig. S8 Predicted response of female adult Estuary Perch in the Snowy River when the flow threshold was set to 15,000 ML to environmental flow regimes compared with a 20-year continuation of planned daily releases devised for 2017–2018 as well as pulsed releases: a) every 5th year; b) every 3rd year; and c) every year. Note that pulses of 10,000, 12,500, and 15,000 ML/day are asynchronous, in each flow release a), b), and, c) Fig. S9 Length fecundity data (n = 21) and fitted line and estimated relationship Fig. S10 Age length data (n = 1545: black crosses) and fitted line (red), estimated relationship and noise in relationship (blue circles) to capture variation in the age length relationship Fig. S11 The derived age fecundity relationship (red line) and generated variation (blue circles) Fig. S12 Perturbation analysis and reproductive value calculation (DOCX 6619 KB)

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Stoessel, D., Todd, C.R., Brown, T. et al. Assessing Outcomes of Environmental Flows for an Estuary-Dependent Fish Species using a Novel Stochastic Population Model Approach. Estuaries and Coasts 45, 2040–2058 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-022-01063-z

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