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Comparative analysis of multi-criteria probabilistic FR and AHP models for forest fire risk (FFR) mapping in Melghat Tiger Reserve (MTR) forest

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Abstract

A comparative study of Frequency Ratio (FR) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) models are performed for forest fire risk (FFR) mapping in Melghat Tiger Reserve forest, central India. Identification of FFR depends on various hydrometeorological parameters (altitude, slope, aspect, topographic position index, normalized differential vegetation index, rainfall, air temperature, land surface temperature, wind speed, distance to settlements, and distance by road are integrated using a GIS platform. The results from FR and AHP show similar trends. The FR model was significantly higher accurate (overall accuracy of 81.3%, kappa statistic 0.78) than the AHP model (overall accuracy 79.3%, kappa statistic 0.75). The FR model total forest fire risk areas were classified into five classes: very low (7.1%), low (22.2%), moderate (32.3%), high (26.9%), and very high (11.5%). The AHP fire risk classes were very low (6.7%), low (21.7%), moderate (34.0%), high (26.7%), and very high (10.9%). Sensitivity analyses were performed for AHP and FR models. The results of the two different models are compared and justified concerning the forest fire sample points (Forest Survey of India) and burn images (2010–2016). These results help in designing more effective fire management plans to improve the allocation of resources across a landscape framework.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are thankful to DFO of Melghat Tiger Reserve (MTR) Forest, Forest Survey of India (FSI), and Forest Department of Maharashtra for their financial support and providing necessary data. The authors would like to thanks the Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur and Vidyasagar University for its constant support and providing the wonderful platform for research. The authors also thanks Chai Ruihai (corresponding editor) for editing the paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, West Bengal, India

    Narayan Kayet & Khanindra Pathak

  2. Vidyasagar University, Midnapore, West Bengal, India

    Narayan Kayet, Abhisek Chakrabarty & Tanmoy Dutta

  3. Jadavpur University, Kolkata, West Bengal, India

    Satiprasad Sahoo

  4. Odisha Space Application Center, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India

    Bijoy Krishna Hatai

Authors
  1. Narayan Kayet
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  2. Abhisek Chakrabarty
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  3. Khanindra Pathak
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  4. Satiprasad Sahoo
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  5. Tanmoy Dutta
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  6. Bijoy Krishna Hatai
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Narayan Kayet.

Additional information

Project funding: This work was funded by the Forest Survey of India (FSI).

The online version is available at http://www.springerlink.com

Corresponding editor: Chai Ruihai.

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Kayet, N., Chakrabarty, A., Pathak, K. et al. Comparative analysis of multi-criteria probabilistic FR and AHP models for forest fire risk (FFR) mapping in Melghat Tiger Reserve (MTR) forest. J. For. Res. 31, 565–579 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11676-018-0826-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11676-018-0826-z

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