Abstract
Understanding how future climate change impacts glaciers is crucial to sustainable water supplies and water resource managements. A calibrated degree-day glacier mass balance model and a volume-area scaling approach were coupled to quantitatively assess the effect of future climate change on the ice volume in the Beida River catchment, Northeast Tibetan Plateau. The results show that future mean mass loss of all glaciers will reach to 0.628±0.058, 0.676±0.058 and 0.765±0.074 ×108 m3 yr−1 under RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, with 81%–96.2% ice volume losses by the end of 21st century. Future mass balance tends to be more negative until 2050 under RCP 2.6, until 2060 under RCP 4.5, and until 2100 under RCP 8.5. Glaciers in the catchment are likely experiencing or will soon experience the most intense ice loss, which may lead to negative impact on water resources after the tipping point around 2015–2035. In the RCP 8.5 scenario, the summer mass balance decreases with elevation at the altitudinal belt of 4650∼5050 m a.s.l. due to the variation of elevation structure caused by accelerating glaciers shrinkage. Further, the simulations are sensitive to the parameterization scheme of glacier area and air temperature. The projections have the potential to significantly improve our understandings of glacier regime over data-poor regions.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Anderson RS, Anderson LS, Armstrong WH, et al. (2018) Glaciation of alpine valleys: the glacier—debris-covered glacier—rock glacier continuum. Geomorphology 311: 127–142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2018.03.015
Arendt AA, Bolch T, Cogley JG, et al. (2017) Randolph Glacier Inventory [v6.0]: a dataset of global glacier outlines. Global Land Ice Measurements from Space, Boulder Colorado, USA. https://doi.org/10.7265/N5-RGI-60
Bazai NA, Cui P, Carling PA, et al. (2021) Increasing glacial lake outburst flood hazard in response to surge glaciers in the Karakoram. Earth-Sci Rev 212: 103432. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103432
Bolch T, Kulkarni A, Kääb A et al. (2012) The state and fate of Himalayan glaciers. Science 336(6079): 310–314. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1215828
Bouwer LM, Aerts JCJH, van de Coterlet GM, et al. (2004) Evaluating downscaling methods for preparing global circulation model (GCM) data for hydrological impact modelling. In: Aerts JCJH, Droogers P (Eds.), Climate Change in Contrasting River Basins. CABI Publishing Wallingford. https://doi.org/10.1079/9780851998350.0025
Brun F, Berthier E, Wagnon P, et al. (2017) A spatially resolved estimate of High Mountain Asia glacier mass balances from 2000 to 2016. Nat Geosci 10: 668–673. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0171-z
Cao B, Pan BT, Wen, ZL, et al. (2019) Changes in glacier mass in the Lenglongling Mountains from 1972 to 2016 based on remote sensing data and modeling. J Hydrol 578: 124010. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124010
Chen DL, Xu BQ, Yao TD, et al. (2015) Assessment of past, present and future environmental changes on the Tibetan Plateau. Chin Sci Bull 60(32): 3025–3035. https://doi.org/10.1360/N972014-01370
Cui P, Chen XQ, Cheng ZL, et al. (2010) Monitoring and prevention of debris-flows and landslides in Tibet. Chin J Nat 32(1): 19–25+66. https://www.nature.shu.edu.cn/CN/Y2010/V32/I1/19
Duan KQ, Yao TD, Shi PH, et al. (2017) Simulation and prediction of equilibrium line altitude of glaciers in the eastern Tibetan Plateau. Scientia Sinica Terrae 47(1): 104–113. https://doi.org/10.1360/N072016-00062
Farinotti D, Immerzeel WW, de Kok RJ, et al. (2020) Manifestations and mechanisms of the Karakoram glacier Anomaly. Nat Geosci 13(1): 8–16. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0513-5
Gao HK, Feng ZJ, Zhang T, et al. (2021) Assessing glacier retreat and its impact on water resources in a headwater of Yangtze River based on CMIP6 projections. Sci Total Environ 765: 142774. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142774
Goerlich F, Bolch T, Paul F (2020) More dynamic than expected: an updated survey of surging glaciers in the Pamir. Earth Syst Sci Data 12: 3161–3176. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-79
Günther D, Markel T, Essery R, et al. (2019) Uncertainties in snowpack simulations — Assessing the impact of model structure, parameter choice, and forcing data error on point-scale energy balance snow model performance. Water Resour Res 55: 2779–2800. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR023403
He JQ, Wang NL, Chen AA, et al. (2019) Glacier changes in the Qilian Mountains, Northwest China, between the 1960s and 2015. Water 11: 623. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11030623
Hewitt K (2005) The Karakoram Anomaly? Glacier Expansion and the ‘Elevation Effect’, Karakoram Himalaya. Mt Res Dev 25(4): 332–340. https://doi.org/10.1659/0276-4741(2005)025[0332:TKAGEA]2.0.CO;2
Hock R, Bliss A, Marzeion B, et al. (2019) Glacier MIP — A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections. J Glaciol 65(251): 453–467. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.22
Huai BJ, Li ZQ, Wang SJ, et al. (2014) RS analysis of glaciers change in the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China, during the recent decades. J Geogr Sci 24(6): 993–1008. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-014-1133-z
Huss M (2011) Present and future contribution of glacier storage change to runoff from macroscale drainage basins in Europe. Water Resour Res 47: W07511. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR010299
Huss M, Hock R (2018) Global—scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss. Nat Clim Change 8: 135–140. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0049-x
Immerzeel WW, Lutz A, Andrade M, et al. (2020) Importance and vulnerability of the world’s water towers. Nature 577: 364–369. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1822-y
Immerzeel WW, van Beek LPH, Bierkens MFP (2010) Climate change will affect the Asian Water Towers. Science 328(5984): 1382–1385. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1183188
Immerzeel WW, van Beek LPH, Konz M, et al. (2012) Hydrological response to climate change in a glacierized catchment in the Himalayas. Climatic Change 110(3–4): 721–736. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0143-4
Jia YF, Li ZQ, Jin S, et al. (2020) Runoff changes from Urumqi Glacier No. 1 over the past 60 years, Eastern Tianshan, Central Asia. Water 12: 1286. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12051286
Jiang X, Wang NL, He JQ, et al. (2010) A distributed surface energy and mass balance model and its application to a mountain glacier in China. Chin Sci Bull 55(20): 2079–2087. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-010-3068-9
Kang ES, Cheng GD, Lan YC, et al. (1999) Runoff response to climate change model in continental river basins in arid zones of northwest China. Sci China — Earth Sci 29(S1): 47–54. https://doi.org/10.1360/zd1999-29-S1-47
Kaser G, Grosshauser M, Marzeion B (2010) Contribution potential of glaciers to water availability in different climate regimes. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107(47): 20223–20227. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1008162107
Lei YB, Yao TD, Tian LD, et al. (2021) Response of downstream lakes to Aru glacier collapses on the western Tibetan Plateau. Cryosphere 15: 199–214. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-199-2021
Li YJ, Ding YJ, Shangguan DH, et al. (2021) Climate-driven acceleration of glacier mass loss on global and regional scales during 1961–2016. Sci China — Earth Sci 64(4): 589–599. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-020-9700-1
Liang LQ, Lan C, Liu Q, et al. (2020) Long-term temporal scale-dependent warming effects on the mass balance in the Dongkemadi Glacier, Tibetan Plateau. J Geophys Res — Atmos 125: e2020JD033105. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033105
Liu SY, Yao XJ, Guo WQ, et al. (2015) The contemporary glaciers in China based on the Second Chinese Glacier Inventory. Acta Geogr Sin 70(1): 3–16. https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201501001
Lutz AF, Immerzeel WW, Shrestha AB, et al. (2014) Consistent increase in High Asia’s runoff due to increasing glacier melt and precipitation. Nat Clim Change 4: 587–592. https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2237
Marzeion B, Hock R, Anderson B, et al. (2020) Partitioning the uncertainty of ensemble projections of global glacier mass change. Earths Future 8(7): 1–25. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001470
Marzeion B, Jarosch AH, Hofer M (2012) Past and future sea—level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers. Cryosphere 6(6): 1295–1322. https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-6-3177-2012
Maurer J, Schaefer J, Rupper S, et al. (2019) Acceleration of ice loss across the Himalayas over the past 40 years. Sci Adv 5: eaav7266. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav7266
Mölg T, Maussion F, Scherer D (2014) Mid—latitude westerlies as a driver of glacier variability in monsoonal High Asia. Nat Clim Change 4(1): 68–73. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2055
Neckel N, Kropáček J, Bolch T, et al. (2014) Glacier mass changes on the Tibetan Plateau 2003–2009 derived from ICESat laser altimetry measurements. Environ Res Lett 9(1): 014009. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/1/014009
Neckel N, Loibl D, Rankl M (2017) Recent slowdown and thinning of debris—covered glaciers in south—eastern Tibet. Earth Planet Sci Lett 464: 95–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2017.02.008
Oerlemans J, Fortuin JPF (1992) Sensitivity of glaciers and small ice caps to greenhouse warming. Science 258(5079): 115–117. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.258.5079.115
Oerlemans J, Knap WH (1998) A 1 year record of global radiation and albedo in the ablation zone of Morteratschgletscher Switzerland. J Glaciol 44: 231–238. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022143000002574
Pellicciotti F, Brock B, Strasser U, et al. (2005) An enhanced temperature—index glacier melt model including the shortwave radiation balance: development and testing for Haut Glacier d’Arolla, Switzerland. J Glaciol 51(175): 573–587. https://doi.org/10.3189/172756505781829124
Pfeffer WT, Arendt AA, Bliss A, et al. (2014) The Randolph Glacier Inventory: a globally complete inventory of glaciers. J Glaciol 60(221): 537–552. https://doi.org/10.3189/2014JoG13J176
Phillips TJ, Gleckler PJ (2006) Evaluation of continental precipitation in 20th century climate simulations: the utility of multi-model statistics. Water Resour Res 42: W03202. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004313
Pu JC, Yao TD, Duan KQ et al. (2005) Mass balance of the Qiyi Glacier in the Qilian Mountains: a new observation. J Glaciol Geocryol 27(2): 199–206. CNKI:SUN:BCDT.0.2005-02-007
Radić V, Hock R (2010) Regional and global volumes of glaciers derived from statistical upscaling of glacier inventory data. J Geophys Res — Earth 115: F01010. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JF001373
Radić V, Hock R (2011) Regional differentiated contribution of mountain glaciers and ice caps to future sea level rise. Nat Geosci 4(2): 91–94. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1052
Radić V, Hock R, Oerlemans J (2008) Analysis of scaling methods in deriving future volume evolutions of valley glaciers, J Glaciol 54(187): 601–612. https://doi.org/10.3189/002214308786570809
Raper SCB, Braithwaite RJ (2006) Low sea level rise projections from mountain glaciers and icecaps under global warming. Nature 439(7074): 311–313. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04448
Rounce DR, Hock R, Shean DE (2020a) Glacier mass change in High Mountain Asia through 2100 using the open-source Python Glacier Evolution Model (PyGEM). Front Earth Sci 7: 331. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00331
Rounce DR, Khurana T, Short MB et al. (2020b) Quantifying parameter uncertainty in a large scale glacier evolution model using Bayesian inference: application to High Mountain Asia. J Glaciol 66(256): 175–187. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.91
Shi PH, Duan KQ, Kirsten N, et al. (2020) Modeling past and future variation of glaciers in the Dongkemadi Ice Field on central Tibetan Plateau from 1989 to 2050. Arct Antarct Alp Res 52(1): 191–209. https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2020.1743157
Su FG, Duan XL, Chen DL, et al. (2013) Evaluation of the Global Climate Models in the CMIP5 over the Tibetan Plateau. J Clim 26: 3187–3208. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00321.1
Su FG, Zhang LL, Ou T, et al. (2016) Hydrological response to future climate changes for the major upstream river basins in the Tibetan Plateau. Global Planet Change, 136: 82–95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.10.012
Sun MP, Liu SY, Yao XJ, et al. (2018) Glacier changes in the Qilian Mountains in the past half-century: Based on the revised First and Second Chinese Glacier Inventory. J Geograph Sci 28: 206–220. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-018-1468-y
Tang QH, Lan C, Su FG, et al. (2019) Streamflow change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its impacts. Chin Sci Bull 64: 2807–2821. https://doi.org/10.1360/TB-2019-0141
Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. B Am Meteorol Soc 93: 485–498. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
Tian LD, Yao TD, Gao Y, et al. (2017) Two glaciers collapse in western Tibet. J Glaciol 63(237): 194–197. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.122
van Tiel M, Stahl K, Freudiger D, et al. (2020) Glacio-hydrological model calibration and evaluation. WIREs Water, 7: e1483. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1483
van Tricht L, Paice CM, Rybak O, et al. (2021) Reconstruction of the historical (1750–2020) mass balance of Bordu, Kara-Batkak and Sary-Tor Glaciers in the inner Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan. Front Earth Sci 9: 734802. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.734802
Wang B, Bao Q, Hoskins B, et al. (2008) Tibetan Plateau warming and precipitation changes in East Asia. Geophys Res Lett 35: L14702. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034330
Wang NL, He JQ, Pu JC, et al. (2010) Variations in equilibrium line altitude of the Qiyi Glacier, Qilian Mountains, over the past 50 years. Chin Sci Bull 55(33): 3810–3817. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-010-4167-3
Wang S, Yao TD, Pu JC, et al. (2020) Spatial and temporal variations in mass balance of Qiyi Glacier in Qilian Mountains. J Nat Resour 35(2): 399–412. https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20200212
Wang S, Yao TD, Tian LD, et al. (2017) Glacier mass variation and its effect on surface runoff in the Beida River catchment during 1957–2013. J Glaciol 63(239): 523–534. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2017.13
Wang WC, Yao TD, Gao Y, et al. (2011) A first—order method to identify potentially dangerous glacial lakes in a region of the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Mt Res Dev 31(2):122–130. https://doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-10-00059.1
Wang YZ, Ren JW, Qin DH, et al. (2013) Regional glacier volume changes derived from satellite data: A case study in the Qilian Mountains. J Glaciol Geocryol 35(3): 583–592. https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0067
Wu KP, Liu SY, Jiang ZL, et al. (2018) Recent glacier mass balance and area changes in the Kangri Karpo Mountains from DEMs and glacier inventories. Cryosphere 12(1): 103–121. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-103-2018
Yang W, Guo XJ, Yao TD, et al. (2016) Recent accelerating mass loss of southeast Tibetan glaciers and the relationship with changes in macroscale atmospheric circulations. Clim Dynam 47(3–4): 805–815. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2872-y
Yang W, Yao TD, Guo XJ, et al. (2013) Mass balance of a maritime glacier on the southeast Tibetan Plateau and its climatic sensitivity. J Geophys Res — Atmos 118(17): 9579–9594. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50760
Yao TD, Pu JC, Lu AX, et al. (2007) Recent glacial retreat and its impact on hydrological processes on the Tibetan Plateau, China, and surrounding regions. Arct Antarct Alp Res 39(4): 642–650. https://doi.org/10.1657/1523-0430(07-510)[YAO]2.0.CO;2
Yao TD, Thompson L, Yang W, et al. (2012) Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings. Nat Clim Change 2(9): 663–667. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1580
Yao TD, Yao ZJ (2010) Impacts of glacial retreat on runoff on Tibetan Plateau. Chin J Nat 32(1): 4–8. https://www.nature.shu.edu.cn/CN/Y2010/V32/I1/4
Yao TD, Yu WS, Wu GJ, et al. (2019) Glacier anomalies and relevant disaster risks on the Tibetan Plateau and surroundings. Chin Sci Bull 64: 2770–2782. https://doi.org/10.1360/TB-2019-0246
Yao TD, Bolch T, Chen DL, et al. (2022) The imbalance of the Asian water tower. Nat Rev Earth Env https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00299-4
Zhang GQ, Yao TD, Piao SL, et al. (2017) Extensive and drastically different alpine lake changes on Asia’s high plateaus during the past four decades. Geophys Res Lett 44(1): 252–260. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072033
Zhang XW, Li HJ, Zhang, ZH, et al. (2018) Recent Glacier Mass Balance and Area Changes from DEMs and Landsat Images in Upper Reach of Shule River Basin, Northeastern Edge of Tibetan Plateau during 2000 to 2015. Water 10: 796. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10060796
Zhao QD, Ding YJ, Wang J, et al. (2019) Projecting climate change impacts on hydrological processes on the Tibetan Plateau with model calibration against the glacier inventory data and observed streamflow. J Hydrol 573: 60–81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.03.043
Zhu ML, Yao TD, Thompson L, et al. (2022). What induces the spatiotemporal variability of glacier mass balance across the Qilian Mountains. Clim Dynam. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06283-4
Zhu ML, Yao TD, Xie Y, et al. (2020) Mass balance of Muji Glacier, northeastern Pamir, and its controlling climate factors. J Hydrol 590: 125447. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125447
Zhu ML, Yao TD, Yang W, et al. (2017) Differences in mass balance behavior for three glaciers from different climatic regions on the Tibetan Plateau. Clim Dynam 195: 1–28. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3817-4
Zolles T, Maussion F, Galos SP, et al. (2019) Robust uncertainty assessment of the spatio-temporal transferability of glacier mass and energy balance models. Cryosphere 13: 469–489. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-469-2019
Žebre M, Colucci RR, Giorgi F, et al. (2021) 200 years of equilibrium-line altitude variability across the European Alps (1901–2100). Clim Dynam 56: 1183–1201. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05525-7
Acknowledgements
This work was funded by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP, Grant No. 2019QZKK0201); the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41801034); the “Key Research Programs in Frontier Sciences” of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (QYZDY-SSW-DQC003); the Basic Research Program of Shanxi Province (202203021211258, 20210302123248), the Open Research Fund of Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environmental Changes and Land Surface Processes, Chinese Academy of Sciences (TEL201801). We gratefully acknowledged for the provision of remote sensing and meteorological data.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Electronic supplementary material
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Wang, S., Yao, Td. & Pu, Jc. Response of glaciers to future climate change in the Beida River catchment, northeast Tibetan Plateau. J. Mt. Sci. 19, 3582–3596 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-022-7352-3
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-022-7352-3