Abstract
In this study, a super cyclonic storm (Amphan) over Bay of Bengal was analyzed with the National Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, Unified Model (NCUM) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global model data. Further, the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model has been utilized to simulate this super cyclonic storm with NCUM and NCEP data as initial and boundary conditions. The model is integrated, for every 12 h interval from 16 May 0000 UTC to 18 May 1200 UTC with horizontal resolution of 9 km and vertically at 34 levels. The results reveal that the track of the cyclone, central pressure of the cyclone, intensity of the cyclone, and landfall time of the cyclone are simulated by the model reasonably well in both the cases that are with NCUM-GFS and NCEP-GFS. However, the WRF simulations with NCEP data are closer to IMD’s estimated track and intensity, when compared with the simulations with NCUM data. The relatively higher errors in simulations with NCUM could be due to the differences in the initial cyclone vortex against the observation in some initial conditions.
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to express their gratitude to the National Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) for having provided the analysis and forecast data used in this study. We also thank the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for providing the gridded rainfall data, cyclone track data and the DWR images corresponding to the case of SuCS Amphan. Acknowledgements are also due to Thailand Meteorological Department (TMD), from where synoptic charts have been obtained.
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Model run and drafting the manuscript were done by D.N. Vyshnavi; design and conceptualization of the study and finalization of the manuscript were presented by PVS Raju; Ploting and drafting the manuscript by U Harish and manuscript correction and finalization by R Ashrit.
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Vyshnavi, D.N., Raju, P.V.S., Harish, U. et al. Mesoscale simulation of tropical cyclone Amphan over Bay of Bengal: inter comparison with NCEP and NCUM global models. Acta Geophys. (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-024-01368-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-024-01368-6