Abstract
Warranty claims forecasting plays an increasingly important role not only for preparing financial plans but also for optimizing warranty policy and improving after-sale services. In the case of new products, an important feature is that the new generation of products often has a close connection with the previous generations of products it replaces. Thus, the warranty claims data of the previous generations of products can be used for extracting reliability information of new products. In this context, we propose a warranty claims forecasting model considering usage rate for new products sold with a two-dimensional warranty. The accelerate failure time model is introduced to investigate the effect of usage rate on product degradation. The non-homogeneous Poisson process is used to model failure counts of repairable products and the constrained maximum likelihood estimation method is used to estimate model parameters. The results of data experiments based on both simulation and real data collected from an automobile manufacturer in China show that the proposed model considering the varying usage rate outperforms the traditional models in forecasting the number of warranty claims.
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Acknowledgments
This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 71802145, 71902180, 71872123, and 71801064, 71532008. The author would like to thank the reviewers for their constructive comments on the earlier version of the manuscript.
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Anshu Dai is an assistant professor in the Co-innovation Center for Computable Modeling in Management Science at Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, China. She received her Ph.D. degree from Tianjin University, China. Her research interests include warranty data analysis and warranty policy design.
Zhaomin Zhang is an assistant professor in the College of Aeronautic Engineering at Civil Aviation University of China. He received his Ph.D. degree from Tianjin University, China. His current research interests include warranty policy design and maintenance service.
Pengwen Hou is an assistant professor in the Co-innovation Center for Computable Modeling in Management Science at Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, China. He received his Ph.D. degree from Tianjin University, China. His research interests include operations research and management mathematics.
Jingyi Yue is a Ph.D. candidate in the Co-innovation Center for Computable Modeling in Management Science at Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, China. Her current research include control theory and optimization algorithm.
Shuguang He is a professor in College of Management and Economics at Tianjin University, China. He received his Ph.D. degree from Tianjin University, China. His research interests include statistical process controls, information management, and warranty data analysis.
Zhen He is currently an academician of International Academy for Quality and a distinguished professor in College of Management and Economics at Tianjin University, China.He received the B.S., M.S., and Ph.D. degrees from Tianjin University, Tianjin, China, 1988,1991, and 2000, respectively. His current research interests include warranty management,statistical process controls, design of experiments, and response surface methodology.
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Dai, A., Zhang, Z., Hou, P. et al. Warranty Claims Forecasting for New Products Sold with a Two-Dimensional Warranty. J. Syst. Sci. Syst. Eng. 28, 715–730 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11518-019-5434-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11518-019-5434-8