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Analysis of spatial spillover effects and influencing factors of transportation carbon emission efficiency from a provincial perspective in China

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Abstract

Globally, the transportation industry has become one of the leading sectors in carbon emission, and all countries are committed to environmental protection and energy conservation while experiencing rapid development. Under China’s “dual-carbon” goal, the carbon emission problem hinders the construction of China’s green transportation system and affects the high-quality development of transportation, so it is of great significance to study the spatial pattern of carbon emission efficiency in the transportation industry and the factors affecting it. Firstly, this paper measures the carbon emission value of transportation in 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2020 based on the IPCC method and measures the carbon emission efficiency through the super-efficiency slack-based measurement model. Secondly, spatial autocorrelation analysis was conducted to determine the spatial clustering characteristics of the efficiency values. Finally, two spatial Durbin models are constructed to measure the spatial spillover effects and analyze the short-term immediate effects of each influencing factor on the static model and the long-term effects of the dynamic model considering the time lag of the transportation carbon emission efficiency. The results of the study show that (1) the average value of efficiency in the central and eastern regions is basically higher than 0.5; in the western and northeastern regions, it is basically lower than 0.3.The overall efficiency of carbon emission in the region shows a fluctuating upward trend but with increasing regional differences. (2) The number of regions with positive spatial correlation increased from 21 to 25 during the study period, and the degree of provincial transportation carbon emission efficiency agglomeration increased. (3) Although urbanization and energy intensity have a large detrimental influence on transportation carbon emission efficiency, environmental regulation has a major favorable effects on it both long and short term. Population scale, opening level, and urbanization all have significant spatial spillover effects. Accordingly, relevant policy recommendations are put forward to provide theoretical guidance for promoting the realization of low-carbon transportation.

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Data availability

The data are available on reasonable request.

Abbreviations

SBM :

Slack-based measurement

SDM :

Spatial Dubin model

IPCC :

Intergovernmental panel on climate change

IEA :

International Energy Agency

SEM :

Spatial error model

SAR :

Spatial lag model

DEA :

Data envelopment analysis

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

WZ: supervision, writing—review and editing; XH: methodology, empirical analysis, writing—original draft, software; QD and DZ: resources, funding acquisition.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Xue Han.

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Written consent was sought from each author to publish the manuscript.

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

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Responsible Editor: V.V.S.S. Sarma

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Appendix

Appendix

Region

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Beijing

0.3361

0.2865

0.2965

0.3025

0.2988

0.3301

0.3213

0.3399

0.3145

0.2899

Tianjin

0.6643

0.5478

0.6229

0.4914

0.5372

0.6286

0.5558

0.5921

0.5826

0.5777

Hebei

1.1589

1.2489

1.2147

1.3015

1.2833

1.1903

1.2732

1.2286

1.2009

1.2790

Shanghai

0.3946

0.3717

0.3813

0.4417

1.0377

1.0510

1.0732

1.0980

1.1076

1.1467

Jiangsu

0.7957

1.0127

0.7865

0.7718

0.6093

0.6287

0.5674

0.6160

0.5846

0.7245

Zhejiang

0.4367

0.4126

0.4259

0.4270

0.4343

0.4814

0.4319

0.4469

0.4635

0.3956

Fujian

0.4344

0.4052

0.3861

0.3782

0.3855

0.4221

0.3845

0.3868

0.4056

0.4108

Shandong

0.4744

0.4607

0.4749

0.5177

0.5252

0.5974

0.6217

0.6226

0.6378

0.6088

Guangdong

0.3739

0.3730

0.3839

0.4040

0.4110

0.4423

0.4183

0.4359

0.4496

0.4095

Hainan

0.2642

0.2926

0.2740

0.2773

0.2780

0.2872

0.2707

0.2761

0.3197

0.3166

East

0.5333

0.5412

0.5247

0.5313

0.5800

0.6059

0.5918

0.6043

0.6066

0.6159

Shanxi

0.2702

0.2847

0.2553

0.2569

0.2840

0.3143

0.3309

0.4172

0.4358

0.4596

Anhui

1.0928

1.0640

1.0934

1.0900

1.0700

1.0411

1.0149

1.0285

1.0271

1.0270

Jiangxi

0.3872

0.4875

0.4479

0.4504

0.4445

0.5013

0.4973

0.5977

0.6329

0.5976

Henan

0.5081

0.6241

0.6879

1.0024

1.0123

1.0464

1.0429

1.0172

1.0114

0.8047

Hubei

0.3617

0.3766

0.4164

0.4330

0.4341

0.4370

0.4165

0.4436

0.4179

0.3577

Hunan

0.3730

0.4216

0.4118

0.4173

0.4170

0.4502

0.4223

0.4330

0.4028

0.3653

Central

0.4988

0.5431

0.5521

0.6083

0.6103

0.6317

0.6208

0.6562

0.6546

0.6020

Inner Mongolia

0.2974

0.3044

0.3269

0.3415

0.3505

0.4245

0.4131

0.4551

0.4788

0.4466

Guangxi

0.2459

0.2390

0.2839

0.2698

0.2891

0.3164

0.2882

0.2992

0.3003

0.2969

Chongqing

0.3661

0.3294

0.2901

0.2961

0.2825

0.3061

0.2694

0.3118

0.3264

0.2976

Sichuan

0.1850

0.1796

0.1897

0.2098

0.2217

0.2452

0.2180

0.2543

0.2609

0.2199

Guizhou

0.2412

0.2383

0.2483

0.2562

0.2495

0.2689

0.2658

0.2838

0.2875

0.2731

Yunnan

0.1876

0.2151

0.2421

0.2480

0.2627

0.2946

0.2838

0.3115

0.3072

0.2764

Shaanxi

0.2684

0.3005

0.3169

0.3266

0.3370

0.3797

0.3437

0.3549

0.3662

0.3625

Gansu

0.4081

0.3995

0.3499

0.2993

0.2755

0.2688

0.2487

0.2611

0.2784

0.2443

Qinghai

0.2350

0.2293

0.2077

0.2072

0.1898

0.1936

0.1629

0.1584

0.1496

0.1366

Ningxia

0.5438

0.5840

0.5176

0.4566

0.4336

0.4259

0.3380

0.3249

0.3322

0.3408

Xinjiang

0.1794

0.2275

0.2075

0.2449

0.2389

0.2522

0.2349

0.3058

0.3034

0.2366

West

0.2871

0.2951

0.2892

0.2869

0.2846

0.3069

0.2788

0.3019

0.3083

0.2847

Liaoning

0.2483

0.2489

0.2463

0.2474

0.2772

0.3500

0.3370

0.3812

0.3843

0.4155

Jilin

0.3511

0.3510

0.3614

0.3419

0.3225

0.3543

0.3118

0.3250

0.3002

0.2919

Heilongjiang

0.1740

0.1846

0.1795

0.1987

0.1905

0.2032

0.1887

0.2072

0.1920

0.1952

Northeast

0.2578

0.2615

0.2624

0.2627

0.2634

0.3025

0.2792

0.3045

0.2922

0.3009

National

0.4086

0.4234

0.4176

0.4302

0.4461

0.4711

0.4516

0.4738

0.4754

0.4602

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Zhang, W., Han, X., Ding, Q. et al. Analysis of spatial spillover effects and influencing factors of transportation carbon emission efficiency from a provincial perspective in China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 31, 12174–12193 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-024-31840-1

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