Abstract
Egyptian Mediterranean coast hosts five shallow lagoons which play a vital role in the national economy. Lake Burullus is the second largest one that is located in the Nile Delta and is connected to the Mediterranean by a narrow outlet. This lagoon faces various anthropogenic-induced implications that threat its ecosystem and biodiversity. The prime objective of this study is investigating the impacts of future climate change (CC) on its characteristics. A 2-D hydro-ecological modeling for the lagoon was implemented, using MIKE21FM. The proposed model was calibrated and validated against the collected water quality records, for two successive years (2011–2013), at twelve monitoring stations throughout the lagoon. The simulations were executed for various parameters, including water depth, salinity, DO, BOD, and nutrient components. Six simulations from different regional climate models (RCMs) were obtained and examined to extract the most accurate climatic projections for the lagoon coordinates. These climatic estimates cover three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios according to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). A moderate sea level rise (SLR), locally projected offshore from the Nile Delta coast, was obtained. The validated model was forced with the climatic and SLR projections of 2 years representing the mid and long-term future of the twenty-first century. The model results showed that the developed model is an efficient tool to simulate the lagoon characteristics. The results of the modified model showed that CC has the potential to radically alter the physical and chemical structure of Lake Burullus. The results emphasized that the lagoon is expected to be warmer and more saline. The risk of oxygen depletion is firmly predictable with significant spatial differences of DO decreasing. A prolonged residence time is expected, accompanied by an increasing trend of phosphate and chlorophyll-a and a decreasing trend of nitrate. CC impacts on Lake Burullus should be considered in its urgently required management plan.
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Acknowledgments
This research was originated as part of a completed M.Sc. work for the first author at Faculty of Engineering, Tanta University, Egypt. The authors extremely thank the Coastal Research Institute, Egypt (CoRI), and the Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (EEAA) for providing field records for Lake Burullus. The authors extend their sincere thanks to the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Regional Climate, and the Working Group on Coupled Modelling, former coordinating body of CORDEX and responsible panel for CMIP5 for making the simulations available through the ESGF web services. Sincere thanks must go to the reviewers as their comments and suggestions have improved the paper considerably.
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Shalby, A., Elshemy, M. & Zeidan, B.A. Assessment of climate change impacts on water quality parameters of Lake Burullus, Egypt. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27, 32157–32178 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-06105-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-06105-x