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Times Series Forecasting of Monthly Rainfall using Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average with EXogenous Variables (SARIMAX) Model

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Abstract

In this study, the monthly rainfall time series forecasting was investigated based on the effectiveness of the Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average with EXogenous variables (SARIMAX) model in the coastal area of Phaltan, taluka. Rainfall forecasting is so much helpful to crops and disaster planning and development during monsoon season. The performance of model was assessed using various statistical metrics such as coefficient of determination (R2), and root mean squared error (RMSE). In this study, we have used multi-dimensional components as inputs in the SARIMAX model for prediction of monthly rainfall. In this work, we have tested two models such as first SARIMAX model orders are (1, 0, 1) and (0, 1, 0, 12), while the second model had orders of (1, 1, 1) and (1, 1, 1, 12). The results of two models have been compared and the performance of model show that the first model outperformed on the rainfall forecasting. The RMSE and R2 performance are 54.54 and 0.91 of first model, respectively, while the second model accuracy is RMSE of 71.12 and an R2 of 0.81. Hence best SARIMAX model has been used for forecasting of monthly time series rainfall from 2020 to 2025 for study area. The results of rainfall data analysis of climatic data are valuable for understanding the variations in global climate change.

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The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

Author Sudhir Kumar Singh express sincere thanks to Coordinator, K. Banerjee Centre of Atmospheric and Ocean Studies, University of Allahabad and DST-FIST for providing infrastructural facilities for the work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune &, New Delhi, India

    Shahenaz Mulla

  2. New Era and Development in Civil Engineering Research Group, Scientific Research Center, Al-Ayen University, Thi-Qar, Nasiriyah, 64001, Iraq

    Chaitanya B. Pande

  3. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India

    Chaitanya B. Pande

  4. K. Banerjee Centre of Atmospheric and Ocean Studies, University of Allahabad, Prayagraj, Uttar Pradesh, India

    Sudhir K. Singh

  5. K. Banerjee Centre of Atmospheric and Ocean Studies, University of Allahabad, Prayagraj, India

    Shahenaz Mulla

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  1. Shahenaz Mulla
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Contributions

Shahenaz Mulla: Writing – original draft, Formal Analysis, Field data collection, Creation and Interactive visualization of figures and methodology chart, Writing - review & editing etc., Chaitanya B. Pande: Conceptualization, writing – original draft, Investigation, developed ML algorithms, creation and Interactive visualization of charts of results, Software, Analyzing and Drafting results and analysis, Statistical Analysis, Writing -review & editing., Sudhir K. Singh: Supervision, writing – original draft, Writing -review & editing, Formal Analysis.

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Correspondence to Chaitanya B. Pande.

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Mulla, S., Pande, C.B. & Singh, S.K. Times Series Forecasting of Monthly Rainfall using Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average with EXogenous Variables (SARIMAX) Model. Water Resour Manage 38, 1825–1846 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-024-03756-5

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