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Forecasting Southwest Indian Monsoon Rainfall Using the Beta Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (\(\beta\)SARMA) Model

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Abstract

Monsoon rainfall has always been a key driver of the Indian economy. Understanding the spatiotemporal rainfall pattern and its prediction is therefore of great importance. The present endeavor implements a beta seasonal autoregressive moving average (BSARMA) model to forecast the southwest monsoon rainfall (June–September) in five homogeneous regions of the Indian subcontinent. The southwest monsoon rainfall data set for the period 1871–2016 was utilized to conduct the analysis. The best-fit model for each region was selected on the basis of diagnostic analysis and the Akaike information criterion (AIC). Further, the conditional maximum likelihood estimator was employed to compute the parameters of the models. The accuracy of the models was assessed using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The study demonstrates that the BSARMA model outperforms the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model in all three measures.

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Acknowledgements

The financial grant in the form of a fellowship to the first author by the CSIR, India, is thankfully acknowledged.

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This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-from-profit sectors.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mathematics and Scientific Computing, National Institute of Technology, Hamirpur, Himachal Pradesh, 177005, India

    Mohammad Shad & Y. D. Sharma

  2. School of Mathematics, Thapar Institute of Engineering & Technology, Patiala, Punjab, 147004, India

    Pankaj Narula

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  1. Mohammad Shad
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MS: conceptualization, methodology, coding and analysis, writing-original draft preparation, writing-reviewing, and editing. YDS: supervision, project administration, resources, validation. PN: reviewing and editing.

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Correspondence to Mohammad Shad.

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Shad, M., Sharma, Y.D. & Narula, P. Forecasting Southwest Indian Monsoon Rainfall Using the Beta Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (\(\beta\)SARMA) Model. Pure Appl. Geophys. 180, 405–419 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-022-03217-3

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