Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Evaluation of Global Water Resources Reanalysis Data for Estimating Flood Events in the Brahmaputra River Basin

  • Published:
Water Resources Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Bangladesh and India are in a long-standing conflict with regard to the sharing of hydro-meteorological information of the Brahamaputra River. Consequently, it limits flood risk management in Bangladesh (the downstream country). Recently developed water resources reanalysis data appear as a promising alternative in providing this information. Further evaluation of these global datasets is needed to understand their capabilities to improve flood events estimation. In this study, the potential of the global water resources reanalysis (WRR) developed within the EU-FP7 project eartH2Observe is critically assessed for detecting and estimating flood events in the Brahmaputra River basin for 1980 to 2012 period. The discharge time series of five large-scale models available in the WRR dataset and two multi-model combinations are evaluated at different temporal resolutions and their performance is compared with a local-scale hydrological model. In situ data and reported damaging flood events compiled from two global disaster databases are used as benchmarks in flood events evaluation. Results show that the WRR data have reasonable skill in detecting flood events, though a significant underestimation of magnitude is found. This study also reveals that the individual large-scale models simulate peak flows similarly or even better than the local-scale model, capturing the hydrological behaviour in the basin and identifying the occurrence and severity of both observed and reported damaging flood events. In conclusion, this study gives insights in the applicability of global hydrological models and datasets for estimating flood events at a local-scale for transboundary rivers in water-sharing countries.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bajracharya SR, Palash W, Shrestha MS, Khadgi VR, Duo C, Das PJ, Dorji C (2015) Systematic evaluation of satellite-based rainfall products over the Brahmaputra basin for hydrological applications. Advances in Meteorology, Volume 2015

  • Balsamo G, Viterbo P, Beljaars A, van den Hurk B, Hirschi M, Betts AK, Scipal K (2009) A revised hydrology for the ECMWF model: verification from field site to terrestrial water storage and impact in the integrated forecast system. J Hydrometeorol 10:623–643

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Balsamo G, Albergel C, Beljaars A, Boussetta S, Brun E, Cloke H, Dee D, Dutra E, Muñoz-Sabater J, Pappenberger F, de Rosnay P, Stockdale T, Vitart F (2015) ERAInterim/land: a global land surface reanalysis data set. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 19:389–407

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Balthrop C, Hossain F (2010) Short note: a review of state of the art on treaties in relation to management of transboundary flooding in international river basins and the global precipitation measurement mission. Water Policy 12(5):635

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beck HE, van Dijk AI, Levizzani V, Schellekens J, Miralles DG, Martens B, de Roo A (2017a) MSWEP: 3-hourly 0.25 global gridded precipitation (1979-2015) by merging gauge, satellite, and reanalysis data. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21(1):589

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beck HE, van Dijk AI, de Roo A, Dutra E, Fink G, Orth R, Schellekens J (2017b) Global evaluation of runoff from 10 state-of-the-art hydrological models. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 21(6):2881

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bezak N, Brilly M, Šraj M (2014) Comparison between the peaks-over-threshold method and the annual maximum method for flood frequency analysis. Hydrol Sci J 59(5):959–977

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • BIDS (2014) Projection of GDP, population and income. Bangladesh integrated water resources assessment project report. BIDS, Dhaka

  • Bierkens MFP (2015) Global hydrology 2015: state, trends, and directions. Water Resource Research 51:4923–4947

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brakenridge GR (2017) Global active archive of large flood events, Dartmouth flood observatory, University of Colorado, USA, available at: http://floodobservatory.colorado.edu/ archives/index.Html (last access: 30 September 2017)

  • CRED, Guha-Sapir D. EM-DAT: The Emergency Events Database, Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), Brussels, Belgium, available at: https://www.emdat.be/emdat_db/, last access: 30 September 2017

  • CSIRO, WARPO, BWDB, IWM, BIDS, CEGIS (2014) Bangladesh integrated water resources assessment: final report. CSIRO, Australia

    Google Scholar 

  • Decharme B, Alkama R, Douville H, Becker M, Cazenave A (2010) Global evaluation of the ISBA-TRIP continental hydrological system. Part II: Uncertainties in river routing simulation related to flow velocity and groundwater storage. Journal of Hydrometeorology 11:601–617

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dewan TH (2015) Societal impacts and vulnerability to floods in Bangladesh and Nepal. Weather and Climate Extremes 7:36–42

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • DHI Water and Environment (2001) MIKE BASIN – Short Introduction and Tutorial. Available at: http://former.iemss.org/sites/iemss2006/papers/w5/MB-manual.pdf

  • Dutra E, Balsamo G, Calvet JC, Minvielle M, Eisner S, Fink G, Pessenteiner S, Orth R, Burke S, van Dijk AI, Polcher J, Beck HE, Martinez de la Torre A (2015) Report on the current state-of-the-art Water Resources Reanalysis, Tech. Rep. D.5.1, eartH2Observe

  • Dutra E, Balsamo G, Calvet JC, Munier S, Burke S, Fink G, van Dijk AIJM, de la Martinez Torre A, van Beek R, de Roo A, Polcher J (2017) Report on the improved Water Resources Reanalysis (WRR2), Tech. Rep. D.5.2, eartH2Observe

  • FAO (2011) AQUASTAT: Bangladesh. Available at: http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/countries_regions/BGD/ (last access: April 2019)

  • Flörke M, Kynast E, Bärlund I, Eisner S, Wimmer F, Alcamo J (2013) Domestic and industrial water uses of the past 60 years as a mirror of socio-economic development: a global simulation study, global environ. Chang. 23:144–156

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ghatak M, Kamal A, Mishra OP (2012) Background paper flood risk management in South Asia. Proceedings of the SAARC workshop on flood risk management in South Asia

  • Goswami DC (2008) Managing the wealth and woes of the river Brahmaputra. Ishani, 2(4)

  • Gründemann GJ, Werner M, Veldkamp TIE (2018) The potential of global reanalysis datasets in identifying flood events in southern Africa. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 22:4667–4683

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gupta HV, Kling H, Yilmaz KK, Martinez GF (2009) Decomposition of the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: implications for improving hydrological modelling. J Hydrol 377(1):80–91

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haddeland I, Clark DB, Franssen W, Ludwig F, Voß F, Arnell NW, Bertrand N, Best M, Folwell S, Gerten D, Gomes S, Gosling SN, Hagemann S, Hanasaki N, Harding R, Heinke J, Kabat P, Koirala S, Oki T, Polcher J, Stacke T, Viterbo P, Weedon GP, Yeh P (2011) Multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance: setup and first results. J Hydrometeorol 12:869–884

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haque A, Jahan S (2015) Impact of flood disasters in Bangladesh: a multi-sector regional analysis. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 13:266–275

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hofer T, Messerli B (2006) Floods in Bangladesh: history, dynamics and rethinking the role of the Himalayas. Ecology 29:254–283

    Google Scholar 

  • Immerzeel W (2008) Historical trends and future predictions of climate variability in the Brahmaputra basin. Int J Climatol 28(2):243–254

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kron W, Steuer M, Löw P, Wirtz A (2012) How to deal properly with a natural catastrophe database – analysis of flood losses. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 12:535–550

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mirza MMQ (2003) Three recent extreme floods in Bangladesh: a hydro-meteorological analysis. Flood problem and management in South Asia (pp. 35-64). Springer Netherlands

  • Mirza MMQ (2011) Climate change, flooding in South Asia and implications. Reg Environ Chang 11(1):95–107

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Munich-Re: NatCatSERVICE Database, Munich: Munich Reinsurance Company Geo Risk Research, available at: www.munichre.com/natcatservice, last access: 30 September 2017

  • Rodell M, Houser PR, Jambor U, Gottschalck J, Mitchell K, Meng C, Arsenault K, Cosgrove B, Radakovich J, Bosilovich M, Entin JK, Walker JP, Lohmann D, Toll D (2004) The global land data assimilation system. B Am Meteorol Soc 85:381–394

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schellekens J, Dutra E, Martínez-de la Torre A, Balsamo G, van Dijk A, Weiland FS et al (2017) A global water resources ensemble of hydrological models: the eartH2Observe Tier-1 dataset. Earth System Science Data 9(2):389

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sood A, Mathukumalli BKP (2011) Managing international river basins: reviewing India–Bangladesh transboundary water issues. Intl J River Basin Management 9(1):43–52

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sutanudjaja EH, van Beek LPH, Bosmans JHC, Drost N, de Graaf IEM, van der Ent RJ, Hoch JM, de Jong K, Karssenberg D, Lopez Lopez P, Pessenteriner S, Schmitz O, Straatsma MW, Vannametee E, Wada Y, Wanders N, Wisser D, Bierkens MFP (2018) PCR-GLOBWB 2.0: a 5 arc-minute global hydrological and water resources model. Geosci Model Dev 11:2429–2453

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Te Linde AH, Aerts JCJH, Hurkmans RTWL, Eberle M (2008) Comparing model performance of two rainfall-runoff models in the Rhine basin using different atmospheric forcing data sets. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 12:943–957 Available at: www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/12/943/2008/

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trigg MA, Birch CE, Neal JC, Bates PD, Smith A, Sampson CC, Yamazaki D, Hirabayashi Y, Pappenberger F, Dutra E, Ward PJ, Winsemius HC, Salamon P, Dottori F, Rudari R, Kappes MS, Simpson AL, Hadzilacos G, Fewtrell TJ (2016) The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis. Environ Res Lett 11:094014

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • UNISDR (2015) Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction 2015–2030, available at: www.unisdr.org/we/inform/publications/43291 (last access: 10 June 2017)

  • Van Der Knijff JM, Younis J, De Roo APJ (2010) LISFLOOD: a GIS-based distributed model for river basin scale water balance and flood simulation. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 24:189–212

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Villarini G, Smith JA, Serinaldi F, Ntelekos AA (2011) Analyses of seasonal and annual maximum daily discharge records for Central Europe. J Hydrol 399(3–4):299–312

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Viney NR, Bormann H, Breuer L, Bronstert A, Croke BFW, Frede H, Gräffe T, Hubrechts L, Jakeman AJ, Kite G, Lanini J, Leavesley G, Lettenmaier DP, Lindström G, Seibert J, Sivapalan M, Willems P (2009) Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modelling (LUCHEM) II: ensemble combinations and predictions. Adv Water Resour 32:147–158

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weedon GP, Balsamo G, Bellouin N, Gomes S, Best MJ, Viterbo P (2014) The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set: WATCH forcing data methodology applied to ERA-interim reanalysis data. Water Resour Res 50(9):7505–7514

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang H, Piao S, Zeng Z, Ciais P, Yin Y, Friedlingstein P, Sitch S, Ahlström A, Guimberteau M, Huntingford C, Levis S, Levy PE, Huang M, Li Y, Li X, Lomas MR, Peylin P, Poulter B, Viovy N, Zaehle S, Zeng N, Zhao F, Wang L (2015) Multicriteria evaluation of discharge simulation in dynamic global vegetation models. Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 120(15):7488–7505

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This research received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no. 603608, Global Earth Observation for integrated water resource assessment: eartH2Observe. We would like to thank the Institute of Water Modelling (IWM) in Bangladesh for their engagement and collaboration during this work.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Inland Water Systems Unit, Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands

    Patricia López López

  2. Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands

    Patricia López López

  3. Institute of Water Modelling (IWM), Mohakhali, Dhaka, Bangladesh

    Tashrifa Sultana, Mohammed Abdulla Hel Kafi, Mohammed Shahadat Hossain, Abu Saleh Khan & Mohammed Sohel Masud

Authors
  1. Patricia López López
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Tashrifa Sultana
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Mohammed Abdulla Hel Kafi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Mohammed Shahadat Hossain
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Abu Saleh Khan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Mohammed Sohel Masud
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Patricia López López.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Additional information

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Electronic supplementary material

ESM 1

(DOCX 26.4 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

López, P.L., Sultana, T., Kafi, M.A.H. et al. Evaluation of Global Water Resources Reanalysis Data for Estimating Flood Events in the Brahmaputra River Basin. Water Resour Manage 34, 2201–2220 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-020-02546-z

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-020-02546-z

Keywords

Search

Navigation