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Does Human Capital Tilt the Population-Economic Growth Dynamics? Evidence from Middle East and North African Countries

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Abstract

Various studies have investigated the population-growth dynamics and the human capital-growth dynamics without assessing the human capital-population-growth dynamics in a single context. This study fills the lacuna in the literature by interrogating if human capital tilts the population-economic growth dynamics in MENA countries. It provokes a new perspective and highlights findings on whether human capital is relevant in influencing the impact of population on economic growth? This empirical investigation uses two indicators of human capital: education enrolment and life expectancy at birth on an unbalanced panel data of 19 MENA countries from 1980 to 2020. The novel methodology of feasible generalized least squares and panel-corrected standard errors technique addressed our three objectives and we find that: (i) population growth and human capital indicators individually influence economic growth positively; (ii) the interaction effect is mixed; and (ii) the net effect of population growth on economic growth when human capital is accounted for is mostly positive. Further examination of the results reveal that primary education exerts the most impact among the education indicators while life expectancy is the most potent human capital indicator. These outcomes highlights the relevance of both measures of human capital and supports the discourse that neither education nor health is a perfect substitute for the other as a measure of human capital. Policy recommendations are discussed.

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Fig. 1

Source: Authors’ Computations from World Bank (2020) World Development Indicators

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Data availability

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Notes

  1. Algeria, Bahrain, Cyprus, Egypt, Arab Rep., Iran, Islamic Rep., Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Tunisia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Rep.

  2. We are unabe to engage the cross-sectional augmented Dickey-Fuller (CADF) and cross-sectional Im, Pesaran and Shin (CIPS) panel unit toot tests as both procedures require strongly balanced panel data.

  3. Mean values of lnPRY, lnSEC, lnTER, and lnLEXP are: 4.577, 4.212, 2.828, and 4.247, respectively.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Economics and Development Studies, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria

    Bosede Ngozi Adeleye

  2. Regional Centre of Expertise (RCE), Ota, Ogun, Nigeria

    Bosede Ngozi Adeleye

  3. Centre for Economic Policy and Development Research (CEPDeR), Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria

    Bosede Ngozi Adeleye

  4. Department of Economics, Ouargla University, Ouargla, Algeria

    Ismail Bengana

  5. Laboratory of Quantitative Applications in Economic and Financial Sciences, Ouargla, Algeria

    Ismail Bengana

  6. Scientific and Technical Research Centre for Arid Areas (C.R.S.T.R.A), Touggourt, Algeria

    Abdelaziz Boukhelkhal

  7. Faculty of Economics, Kabul University, Jamal Mina, District 03, Kabul, Afghanistan

    Mohammad Musa Shafiq

  8. Department of Economics and Development Studies, Kwara State University, Kwara, Nigeria

    Hauwah K. K. Abdulkareem

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  1. Bosede Ngozi Adeleye
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The original online version of this article was revised: In the original publication of the article, the affiliation of two coauthors “Abdelaziz Boukhelkhal” and “Mohammad Musa Shafiq” has been mistakenly published online. The same has been corrected here.

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Adeleye, B.N., Bengana, I., Boukhelkhal, A. et al. Does Human Capital Tilt the Population-Economic Growth Dynamics? Evidence from Middle East and North African Countries. Soc Indic Res 162, 863–883 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-021-02867-5

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