Abstract
Across the world’s oceans, western boundary currents are strengthening and warming faster than the global average. This is expected to have large impacts on the distribution of pelagic fishes, as their dispersal and physiological range limits shift. Monitoring the distribution of larval fish assemblages, sampled with plankton nets, allows for population and community-level responses to climate-driven changes to be observed without reliance on fisheries data. Here, we characterise patterns in the distribution of larval fish over 15° of latitude with highly variable conditions driven by a western boundary current, the East Australian Current, using a newly available larval fish database supplemented with recently collected samples. Using generalized additive mixed models, we show strong non-linear relationships between larval fish taxonomic richness and abundance with latitude. During autumn, winter and spring, both larval fish abundance and richness are greater in equatorward latitudes (28°S) than in more poleward ones (43°S), with this pattern reversed during the summer. The region where the East Australian Current separates from the coast delineates a zone of marked change in larval fish richness and abundance. Analyses of larval fish assemblages using Gaussian copula graphics models revealed a strong association between assemblage composition and temperature. The direction of temperature effects on individual taxa varied greatly, highlighting the complex nature of possible climate-driven shifts. Our study highlights the utility of compiling multi-voyage databases and their role in monitoring the global oceans.
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Data availability
The larval fish assemblage data is freely available from the Australian Ocean Data Network https://portal.aodn.org.au/ (Smith et al. 2018). Bathymetry data from GEBCO’s gridded 15 arc-second interval bathymetric data set is freely available from the GEBCO Compilation Group (2020) GEBCO 2020 Grid (https://doi.org/10.5285/a29c5465-b138-234d-e053-6c86abc040b9) https://www.gebco.net/data_and_products/gridded_bathymetry_data/ (IOC et al. 2003). The 1° grid monthly mean Hadley Centre sea ice and SST dataset is freely available at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/data/download.html (Rayner et al. 2003). Extracted data and code to reproduce analyses and figures is available at https://github.com/charliehinchliffe/larval_fish_distribution_analyses.
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Acknowledgments
We thank all researchers who contributed to the IMOS Larval fish database, and the crews of the vessels who obtained the samples. We particularly acknowledge the on-going support of the Marine National Facility. The dataset which allowed us to undertake this study is the outcome of some dedicated postgraduate and honours students over the past three decades, and includes the efforts of many volunteers who provided a helping hand. We acknowledge the Australian Fisheries Management Authority who funded part of this study (Grant: 2015/0819). We acknowledge the support of the Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS), which currently undertakes the larval fish monitoring at the National Reference Stations. CH is funded by an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship. JDE was funded by Australian Research Council Discovery Projects DP150102656 and DP190102293. This research includes computations using the computational cluster Katana supported by Research Technology Services at UNSW Sydney.
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CH, HTS & JDE retrieved the data, CH, JAS, DSF & AJR designed the analysis, CH performed the analysis and led the writing of the manuscript. All authors helped conceive ideas, contributed critically to the drafts, and gave final approval for publication.
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Hinchliffe, C., Smith, J.A., Everett, J.D. et al. Modelling the distribution of larval fish in a western boundary current using a multi-voyage database. Rev Fish Biol Fisheries 31, 399–415 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11160-021-09647-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11160-021-09647-x