Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Seismic risk assessment as part of the National Risk Assessment for the Republic of Cyprus: from probabilistic to scenario-based approach

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Seismic risk assessment for Cyprus at national scale is based on event-based probabilistic seismic risk analysis and eventual selection of seismic scenarios for given return periods. The current study was included in the National Risk Assessment of Cyprus, for 2018, following the European Commission requirements and guidelines. The latter analysis is performed with the relevant algorithm of Open Quake engine, which first incorporates stochastic event-based hazard analysis for extended earthquake catalogues and models of the area, as developed in the ESHM13 model developed in the SHARE project. The exposure model employed is built and elaborated by local resources, and the vulnerability model developed for local building typologies, as included in past publications, was used, with additional considerations. Risk is expressed in terms of monetary loss, at national level and for the biggest urban areas, and is provided in aggregated values as well as distributed along the island with map representation. For the selected scenarios, with 475- and 2500-year return period, expected casualties and displaced population are also estimated.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

adapted from Cagnan and Tanircan 2010)

Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
Fig. 15
Fig. 16
Fig. 17
Fig. 18
Fig. 19

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

Not applicable.

Code availability

Not applicable.

References

  • Ahmad N, Crowley H, Pinho R (2011) Analytical Fragility Functions for Reinforced Concrete and Masonry Buildings and Buildings Aggregates of EuroMediterranean Regions – UPAV methodology. Internal Report, Syner-G Project 2009/2012. Euro-Mediterranean Regions (Greece, Italy, Turkey)

  • Akkar S, Bommer J (2010) Empirical equations for the prediction of PGA, PGV, and spectral accelerations in Europe, the Mediterranean Region, and the Middle East. Seismol Res Lett 81(2):195–206

  • Atkinson GM, Boore DM (2003) Empirical ground-motion relations for subduction-zone earthquakes and their application to Cascadia and other regions. Bullet Seismol Soc Am 93:1703–1729

  • Ambraseys NN (1965) The seismic history of Cyprus. Reven Union Intern Secours Geneva 3:25–48

    Google Scholar 

  • Ambraseys NN (1992) Reappraisal of the seismicity in Cyprus (1894–1991). Boll Geofis Teor Eds Appl 34:41–80

    Google Scholar 

  • Anastasiades A, Pitilakis KA, Apessou M, Apostolides P, Kallioglou P, Tika TH, Michaelides P, Petrides G, (2006) Seismic response of soil formations in Limassol. 5th Hellenic conference of geotechnical and environmental engineering, Technical Chamber of Greece, Xanthi

  • ASEAC (1992) Seismic Code for Reinforced Concrete Structures in Cyprus, Cyprus Civil Engineers and Architects Association, Committee for Earthquake Engineering

  • Basili R, Kastelic V, Demircioglu M B, Garcia Moreno D, Nemser E S, Petricca P, Sboras S P, Besana-Ostman G M, Cabral J, Camelbeeck T, Caputo R, Danciu L, Domac H, Fonseca J, García-Mayordomo J, Giardini D, Glavatovic B, Gulen L, Ince Y, Pavlides S, Sesetyan K, Tarabusi G, Tiberti M M, Utkucu M, Valensise G, Vanneste K, Vilanova S, Wössner J (2013). The European Database of Seismogenic Faults (EDSF) compiled in the framework of the Project SHARE. http://diss.rm.ingv.it/share-edsf/, doi: https://doi.org/10.6092/INGV.IT-SHARE-EDSF. http://diss.rm.ingv.it/share-edsf/. Accessed 29 Nov 2020

  • Burton C G, Khazai B, Silva V (2014). Social vulnerability and Integrated risk assessment within the Global Earthquake Model. Tenth U.S. National conference on earthquake engineering: frontiers of earthquake engineering, Anchorage, Alaska, USA.

  • Cagnan Z, Tanircan GB (2010) Seismic hazard assessment for Cyprus. J Seismol 14:225–246. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-009-9163-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Calvi GM (1999) A displacement-based approach for vulnerability evaluation of classes of buildings. J Earthq Eng 3:411–348

    Google Scholar 

  • Cauzzi C, Faccioli E (2008) Broadband (0.05 to 20 s) prediction of displacement response spectra based on worldwide digital records. J Seismol 12:453–475

  • CCDD (2016) 2nd Report on the National Risk Assessment of the Republic of Cyprus, Cyprus Civil Defence Department Ministry of Interior, Republic of Cyprus

  • CCEAA (1992) Seismic code for reinforced concrete structures in Cyprus. Committee for Earthquake Engineering, Cyprus Civil Engineers and Architects Association, Cyprus

  • CEB (1991) CEB-FIB model Code 1990—Final draft. Bulletins no 203/204/205. Comite Euro-international du Beton, Lausanne

  • CEN (2004) Eurcode 8, Design of structures for earthquake resistance-part 1: general rules, seismic actions and rules for buildings, EN 1998–1:2004. Comite Europeen de formalisation, Brussels

    Google Scholar 

  • CGSD (2000) Microzonation study of the city of Lemesos in Cyprus. Cyprus Geological and Survey Department, Republic of Cyprus

  • CGSD (2017) Significant recent earthquake (1900-today), Cyprus Geological Survey Department. http://www.moa.gov.cy/moa/gsd/gsd.nsf/All/16C98663E655EFF6C22583C40046E788?OpenDocument). Accessed 29 Nov 2020

  • Chiou BS-J, Youngs RR (2008) An NGA model for the average horizontal component of peak ground motion and response spectra. Earthq Spectra 24:173–216

  • Chrysostomou (2009) Seismic Protection of Cyprus. 16th concrete conference ΤΕΕ, ΕΤΕΚ, 21–23 October 2009, Pafos, Cyprus (in Greek)

  • Chrysostomou Ch, Kyriakides N, Cagnan Z (2014) Scenario-based seismic risk assessment for the Cyprus region. Proceedings of 2nd European conference on earthquake engineering and seismology, Istanbul, Turkey

  • Coburn A, Spence R (2002) Earthquake protection, 2nd edn. Wiley, Chichester, England

  • Cohen D, Rutherford N, Morisseau E, Zissimos A (2012) Geochemical patterns in the soils of Cyprus. Sci Total Environ 420:250–262

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cornell CA (1968) Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull Seismol Soc Am 58:1583–1606

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Crowley H, Despotaki V, Rodrigues D, Silva V, Costa C, Toma-Danila D, Riga E, Karatzetzou A, Fotopoulou S, Sousa L, Ozcebe S, Gamba P, Dabbeek J, Romão X, Pereira X, Castro JM, Daniell J, Veliu BH, Adam C, Deyanova M, Ademovic N, Atalic J, Bessason B, Shendova V, Tiganescu A, Toma-Danila D, Zugic Z, Akkar S, Hancilar U, Exposure Contributors (2020) European exposure model data repository (Version 0.9) [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4062044

  • Cutter SL, Boruff BJ, Shirley WL (2003) Social vulnerability to environmental hazards. Soc Sci Q 84(2):242–261

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Delavaud E et al (2012) Towards a ground-motion logic tree for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Europe. J Seismolog 16:451–473

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • EC (2010) Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management. Commission Staff Working Paper, SEC (2010) 1626 final

  • ECORYS & Fraunhofer (2018) Peer review Cyprus 2018. 2018–2019 Programme for peer reviews in the framework of EU cooperation on civil protection and disaster risk management

  • Erdik M, Sestyan K, Demircioglu M, Tuzun C, Giardini D, Gulen L, Akkar S, Zare M (2012). Assessment of seismic hazard in the Middle East and Caucasus: EMME (Earthquake Model of Middle East) project. Proceedings of 15th World conference on earthquake engineering, Lisbon, Portugal

  • FEMA (2003) HAZUS-MH MR4. Technical Manual—Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology – Earthquake Model. Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington D.C., 2003

  • Field EH, Jordan TH, Cornell CA (2003) OpenSHA—A developing community-modeling environment for seismic hazard analysis. Seismol Res Lett 74:406–419

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Galanopoulos A, Delibasis N (1965) The seismic activity in the Cyprus area. Prakt Akad Athenon 40:387–405

    Google Scholar 

  • GEM (2020a) Global Earthquake Model Foundation. https://www.globalquakemodel.org/. Accessed 29 Nov 2020

  • GEM (2020b). GEM/OpenQuake Physical Vulnerability Database , Global Earthquake Model Foundation. https://platform.openquake.org/vulnerability/list Accessed 29 Nov 2020

  • Giardini D et al. (2013). Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE): Online Data Resource - http://www.efehr.org/en/Documentation/specific-hazard-models/europe/hazard-computation-input/. Accessed 29 Nov 2020

  • Giardini D, Woessner J, Danciu L (2014) Mapping Europe’s seismic hazard. Eos 95(29):261–262

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giardini D, Danciu L, Erdik M, Sesetyan K, Demircioglu M, Akkar S, Gülen L, Zare M (2016) Seismic hazard map of the middle east. https://doi.org/10.12686/a1

  • Gountromichou C, Kazantzidou-Firtinidou D, Goretti A, Kyriakides N (2017) Deliverable B2d—Seismic scenarios focused on the operational preparedness and planning, PACES Project

  • HAZUS (1999) Earthquake loss estimation methodology – technical and user manuals. Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington D.C.

  • ISO (2018) ISO 31000:2018, Risk management—Guidelines. International Organization for Standards, Geneva, Switzerland

  • ISO (2019) ISO31010:2019, Risk management—Risk assessment techniques. International Organization for Standards, Geneva, Switzerland

  • Kalogeras I, Stavrakakis G, Solomi K (1999) The October 9, 1996 earthquake in Cyprus: seismological, macroseismic and strong motion data. Ann Geofis 42:85–97

    Google Scholar 

  • Kappos A, Panagopoulos G, Panagiotopoulos C, Penelis G (2006) A hybrid method for the vulnerability assessment of R/C and URM buildings, Bull Earthquake Eng 4:391–413

  • Kazantzidou-Firtinidou D, Gountromichou C, Kyriakides K, Liassides P, Hadjigeorgiou K (2018) Seismic Risk Assessment as a basic tool for emergency planning: “PACES” EU project. Disaster Manag Human Health Risk V WIT Trans Built Environ 173:43–54

    Google Scholar 

  • Kazantzidou-Firtinidou D, Kyriakides N, Chrysostomou C (2019) Earthquake Risk Assessment for Cyprus. 2nd international conference on natural hazard and infrastructure, 23–26 June, Chania

  • Kazantzidou-Firtinidou D, Sakkas G, Papathanasiou C, Eftychidis G (2021) Risk-based methodological approach for planning for emergency sheltering due to earthquake disasters. Special Issue "Technology Advances and Support for Security Practitioners" of the “Security Informatics and Law Enforcement“. ISBN: 978-3-030-69460-9

  • Kyriakides N, Chrysostomou Ch, Tantele E, Votsis R (2015) Framework for the derivation of analytical fragility curves and life cycle cost analysis for non-seismically designed buildings. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 78:116–126

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lin P-S, Lee C-T (2008) ground-motion attenuation relationships for subduction-zone earthquakes in Northeastern Taiwan. Bullet Seismol Soc Am 98(1):220–240

  • Musson R (2000) The use of Monte Carlo simulations for seismic hazard assessment in the U.K. Annali in Geofisica 43:1

  • Pagani M, Monelli D, Weatherill G, Danciu L, Crowley H, Silva V, Henshaw P, Butler L, Nastasi M, Panzeri L, Simionato M, Vigano D (2014) OpenQuake engine: an open hazard (and risk) software for the global earthquake model. Seismol Res Lett 85(3):1–13

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Papadouris G (1990). Building materials in the traditional architecture of Cyprus. Association of Cypriot Archaeologists, Repubic of Cyprus (in Greek)

  • Papazachos BC, Papaioannou CA (1999) Lithospheric boundaries and plate motions in the Cyprus area. Tectonophysics 308:193–204

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Quarantelli EL (1982) Sheltering and housing after major community disasters: case studies and general conclusions. Disaster Research Center, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH

    Google Scholar 

  • Sesetyan K, Demircioglu M, Rovida A, Stucchi M (2011) SHARE-CET, the SHARE earthquake catalogue for Central and Eastern Turkey complementing the SHARE European Eartquake Catalogue (SHEEC). Catalogue available at: https://www.emidius.eu/SHEEC/

  • Silva V, Crowley H, Pagani M, Monelli D, Pinho R (2013) Development of the OpenQuake engine, the Global Earthquake Model’s open-source software for seismic risk assessment. Nat Hazards 72(3):1409–1427

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Silva V, Amo-Oduro D, Calderon A, Dabbeek J, Despotaki V, Martins L, Rao A, Simionato M, Viganò D, Yepes C, Acevedo A, Horspool N, Crowley H, Jaiswal K, Journeay M, Pittore M (2018) Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Seismic Risk Map (version 2018.1). https://doi.org/10.13117/GEM-GLOBAL-SEISMIC-RISK-MAP-2018.1

  • Spence R (ed) (2007) Earthquake Disaster scenario prediction and Loss modelling for Urban areas, LESSLOS Report, IUSS Press, Pavia

  • Stucchi et al (2013) The SHARE European earthquake catalogue (SHEEC) 1000–1899. J Seismolog 17:523–544

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • TEC (2007) Specification for structures to be built in disaster areas. Ministry of Public Works and Settlement Government of Republic of Turkey

  • UNISDR (2009) Terminology of Disaster Risk Reduction. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland

  • UNDRR (2019) Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland

  • UNISDR (2015) Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland

  • UNISDR (2017) National Disaster Risk Assessment, Governance System, Methodologies and Use of Results. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk reduction, Geneva, Switzerland

  • USGS (2020) Global Slope - Based Vs30 Map, Unites States Geological Survey Department. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/data/vs30/ Accessed 29 Nov 2020.

  • VCE—Vienna Consulting Engineers (2011) D7.1-Functional Fragility Curve Archive, SYNER-G project Systemic Seismic Vulnerability and Risk Analysis for Buildings, Lifeline Networks and Infrastructures Safety Gain

  • Wald DJ, Allen TI (2007) Topographic slope as a proxy for seismic site conditions and amplification. Bull Seismol Soc Am 97(5):1379–1395

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wdowinski S, BenAvraham Z, Arvidsson R, Ekström G (2006) Seismotectonics of the Cyprian Arc. Geophys J Int 164:176–181

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woessner J, Danciu L, Kästli P, Monelli D (2013) Databases of seismogenic zones, Mmax, earthquake activity rates, ground motion attenuation relations and associated logic trees. SHARE Project Deliverable D6.6. http://www.efehr.org/en/Documentation/specific-hazard-models/europe/hazard-computation-input/ Accessed 29 Nov 2020.

  • Yenier E, Sandikkaya MA, Akkar S (2010) SHARE D4.1—Updated strong-ground motion database

  • Youngs RR, Chiou S-J, Silva WJ, Humphrey JR (1997) Strong ground motion attenuation relationships for subduction zone earthquakes. Seismol Res Lett 68(1):58–73

  • Zhao JX, Zhang J, Asano A, Ohno Y, Oouchi T, Takahashi T, Ogawa H, Irikura K, Thio HK, Somerville PG, Fukushima Y, Fukushima Y (2006) Attenuation relations of strong ground motion in Japan using site classification based on predominant period. Bull Seism Soc Am 96(3):898–913

Download references

Acknowledgements

This study has been funded from Cyprus Civil Defence as part of the National Risk Assessment for the Republic of Cyprus, tender no. 004/2018, coordinated by the Cyprus University of Technology. The authors of this study are deeply grateful to A. Rhao and V. Despotaki, risk engineers of Global Earthquake Model and T. Apostolopoulos, earthquake engineer, for their help with OpenQuake software, risk issues and mapping; Dr. I. Kassaras, assistant professor of seismology in National Kapodistrian University of Athens and Dr. G. Sakkas, Research associate in Center for Security Studies, for their support with seismic hazard issues. The authors are deeply thankful to the reviewers of the submitted manuscript for their comments and recommendations.

Funding

The research was not funded.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Security Studies (KEMEA), Ministry of Citizen Protection, Athens, Greece

    Danai Kazantzidou-Firtinidou

  2. Department of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Cyprus University of Technology, Limassol, Cyprus

    Nicholas Kyriakides, Renos Votsis & Christis Ζ. Chrysostomou

Authors
  1. Danai Kazantzidou-Firtinidou
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Nicholas Kyriakides
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Renos Votsis
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Christis Ζ. Chrysostomou
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

Not applicable.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Nicholas Kyriakides.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The author declares that they have no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Kazantzidou-Firtinidou, D., Kyriakides, N., Votsis, R. et al. Seismic risk assessment as part of the National Risk Assessment for the Republic of Cyprus: from probabilistic to scenario-based approach. Nat Hazards 112, 665–695 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05200-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05200-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation