Abstract
The prediction of time to slope failure (TOF) is one of the most pivotal concerns for both geological risk researchers and practitioners. Conventional inverse velocity method (IVM), based on the analysis of displacement monitoring data, has become an effective method to solve this problem because it is easy to perform and the prediction results are generally acceptable. Practically, some limitations like random instrumental noise, environmental noise, and measurement error are ubiquitous factors hampered the reliability of the prediction. In this work, traditional IVM method and modified IVM with three different filters are respectively detected on velocity time series from an landslide event in an open-pit coal mine with the propose of improving, in retrospect, the accuracy of failure predictions. Simultaneously, the effects of noise on the appraisal of IVM graphics are also assessed and explanation. The results demonstrate that the sliding process of landslides can be divided into three signature stages based on the IVM. Noteworthily, the slope failure critical point occurs at the end of the progressive stage and generally coincides with a major acceleration event in which almost integrity of the slope is lost, transitioning to a linear trend ever since. Additionally, the short-term smoothing filter (SSF) and long-term smoothing filter (LSF) models can provide more accuracy and useful information about the probable failure time. Finally, with the intention of enhancing the feasible use of the method and supporting pre-determined response plans, two-level alert procedures combing SSF and LSF are proposed.
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Abbreviations
- T/t :
-
Monitoring time
- A :
-
One dimensionless parameter related to several factors, including material, scale and movement patterns
- α:
-
One dimensionless parameter related to several factors, including material, scale and movement patterns
- X :
-
Displacement time series
- OOA:
-
Onset of acceleration
- EOA:
-
End of Acceleration in the landslide evolution
- TP:
-
Trend point in the landslide evolution
- IN:
-
Instrumental noise
- EN:
-
Environmental noise
- SSF:
-
Short-period easy shifting filter
- LSF:
-
Long-period easy shifting filter
- PSF:
-
Power shifting filter
- T f :
-
Actual time of slope instability
- T fp :
-
Predicted time of slope instability
- t m :
-
Difference value between Tfp and Tf (i.e., Tfp−tm)
- ΔT :
-
Time difference value between actual and forecast
- IVM:
-
Inverse velocity method
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Acknowledgements
This study was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (52109125), the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2020M680583), the National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talent of China (BX20200191), the Excellent Sino-foreign Youth Exchange Program of China Association for Science and Technology in 2020 (No. 58), and the Shuimu Tsinghua Scholar Program (2019SM058).
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HD and DS performed the data analyses and wrote the manuscript; DS helped perform the analysis with constructive discussions; HD and DS carried out subsequent field investigations.
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Du, H., Song, D. Investigation of failure prediction of open-pit coal mine landslides containing complex geological structures using the inverse velocity method. Nat Hazards 111, 2819–2854 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05159-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05159-w