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Probabilistic prediction of the spatial distribution of potential key blocks during tunnel surrounding rock excavation

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Abstract

Jointed network simulations tend to be more random in nature due to the uncertainty of rock mass structures. In this paper, a series of jointed network models can be established in batches using Monte Carlo simulation (MSC) and loop iteration. Taking the joints, tunnel profile and their intersections as the edges E and vertices V of graph G, the jointed network model can serve as an unweighted undigraph. Then, the breadth-first search is introduced to search the closed paths around the tunnel profile, such as the potential key blocks. With batch simulation of network models, the spatial distribution characteristics and probability distribution rules of blocks can be automatically analysed during the search process. For comparison, the Laohushan tunnel of the Jinan Belt Expressway in China has been analysed using the breadth-first search, discontinuous deformation analysis method and procedure of “Finding the Key Blocks-Unrolled Tunnel Joint Trace Maps”. Each simulation starts from the same probabilistic model of geometrical parameters of joints but develops differently with different outcomes. The spatial distribution rule of potential key blocks simulated by the aforementioned batch jointed network models is essentially identical to the actual rockfall during tunnel excavation.

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Acknowledgements

This research was funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant number: 51909150); National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51808359); National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 52009076); Shandong Provincial Key Research and Development Program (No. 2019JZZY010428).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Civil Engineering Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266590, Shandong, China

    Peng He, Gang Wang & Shang-qu Sun

  2. Geotechnical and Structural Engineering Research Center, Shandong University, Jinan, 250061, Shandong, China

    Li-ping Li

  3. School of Civil Engineering, Shijiazhuang Tiedao University, Shijiazhuang, 050043, Hebei, China

    Fei Xu

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  1. Peng He
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  3. Gang Wang
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Correspondence to Shang-qu Sun.

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He, P., Li, Lp., Wang, G. et al. Probabilistic prediction of the spatial distribution of potential key blocks during tunnel surrounding rock excavation. Nat Hazards 111, 1721–1740 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05113-w

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05113-w

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