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Rapid changes to glaciers increased the outburst flood risk in Guangxieco Proglacial Lake in the Kangri Karpo Mountains, Southeast Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

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Abstract

The Kangri Karpo Mountain Range on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau frequently experiences glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This study assessed the risk of outburst floods for Guangxieco Proglacial Lake (GPL) in this Mountain Range as a typical case to reveal the effects of rapid glacial change. The area of Gongzo Glacier behind GPL decreased by 7.39 ± 0.10% from 1987 to 2019, while this glacier advanced by 32.45 m from 5 June to 27 October in 1988. Guangxieco Proglacial Lake decreased from 0.42 ± 0.03 km2 in 1987 to 0.19 ± 0.03 km2 in 1988 and then continuously expanded to 0.43 ± 0.04 km2 in 2019. Heavy precipitation occurred before 15 July 1988, when no supraglacial lake existed. Meanwhile, sustained abnormally high air temperature caused accelerated glacier and snow melting. Since 1988, a larger volume of rainfall and meltwater impounded by the ice wall caused an increase in the basal water pressure in the glacier. A significant increase in winter mass balance has caused a further increase in the downward gravity component of glacier sliding. As a result, the glacier advanced rapidly while reopening previously blocked subglacial drainage systems. The accumulating subglacial water rapidly drained into the Proglacial Lake causing an elevated lake level and a GLOF event. However, the current area of the glacial lake has recovered to the scale present before the outburst in 1988. Therefore, local government agencies and the local community should improve early warning systems and take measures designed to prevent a new GLOF and to minimize the risk of a recurrence of a GPL outburst.

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Funding

This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42101135), Jiangxi Provincial Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. 20202BAB213013), the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA19070503), the projection of the Environmental Monitoring and Protection in Longhu Mountains of a World Natural Heritage Site from Nanchang Base of the International Centre on Space Technologies for Natural and Cultural Heritage under the Auspices of the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (Grant No. HIST-NB), and also supported by the Opening Fund of the Key Laboratory of the Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research (Jiangxi Normal University), Ministry of Education (Grant No. PK2020002).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Yulong Snow Mountain Glacier and Environment Observation and Research Station/State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, 730000, China

    Yanjun Che, Shijin Wang, Yanqiang Wei, Tao Pu & Xinggang Ma

  2. Department of Geography Science, Yichun University, Yichun, 336000, China

    Yanjun Che

  3. Nanchang Base of International Centre on Space Technologies for Natural and Cultural Heritage under the Auspices of UNESCO, Nanchang, 330000, China

    Yanjun Che

  4. Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research (Jiangxi Normal University), Ministry of Education, Nanchang, 330000, China

    Yanjun Che

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  1. Yanjun Che
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YC and SW involved in conceptualization, methodology, writing—original draft, investigation. YW took part in methodology, data curation, visualization, supervision. TP and XM participated in validation, writing—review and editing.

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Correspondence to Yanjun Che or Shijin Wang.

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Che, Y., Wang, S., Wei, Y. et al. Rapid changes to glaciers increased the outburst flood risk in Guangxieco Proglacial Lake in the Kangri Karpo Mountains, Southeast Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Nat Hazards 110, 2163–2184 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05029-5

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