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Vulnerability assessment of population in mountain settlements exposed to debris flow: a case study on Qipan gully, Wenchuan County, China

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Abstract

This research selected the Qipan gully as a study area for field investigation. The vulnerability of the population to debris flows in Qipan gully was assessed. Several valuation factors were considered such as family size, age structure, the physical condition of its members, ethnic characteristics, culture level, and distance to known debris flow events. A self-organizing map (SOM) approach was used in order to prevent man-made subjective factors in influencing evaluation index weights. MATLAB and ArcGIS were employed to determine the degree of population vulnerability to debris flow disaster. Population vulnerability of Qipan gully basin was mainly identified on densely populated places. The highest vulnerability was observed in a debris flow ditch mouth, which decreased to surrounding areas. Areas with extremely high-vulnerability and high-vulnerability degree featured a small percentage of the total area of the gully, with 3.52% and 4.90%, respectively. Extremely low-vulnerability and low-vulnerability degree areas exhibited high percentages of 22.98% and 60.06%, respectively. The analysis of the SOM U-matrix and the 18 variable planes hints that higher population vulnerabilities are related to medium or large families, with members of national minorities, primary education, and within 300 m to the debris flow gully. Age structure and members physical condition posed certain effects, but the degree of influence was low for this case study. The results can be used as a reference for reducing casualties in Qipan gully.

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Acknowledgements

This research was financially supported by the National key research and development program of China (Grant No. 2018YFC1505402), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41871174), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. 2682019CX19).

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  1. Faculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, 611756, China

    Mingtao Ding & Tao Huang

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  1. Mingtao Ding
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  2. Tao Huang
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Correspondence to Mingtao Ding.

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Ding, M., Huang, T. Vulnerability assessment of population in mountain settlements exposed to debris flow: a case study on Qipan gully, Wenchuan County, China. Nat Hazards 99, 553–569 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03759-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03759-1

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