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Identifying key factors of regional agricultural drought vulnerability using a panel data grey combined method

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Abstract

Regional agricultural drought vulnerability (RADV) is a complex problem caused by the interaction of various factors, and the combination of multiple dimensions of each subregion, factor index and time affects the RADV. Therefore, panel data should be used to reflect the actual situation of the region objectively and comprehensively. Current research on identifying key factors of affecting RADV is relatively scarce from the perspective of panel data. In view of this, in order to classify and identify the key factors, a new panel data grey combined method of comprehensive grey relational analysis (CGRA) and Max-CGRA clustering is proposed, which is applied to identify the key factors of RADV in China’s Henan Province. According to the identification results of key factors, the reasons for the change of RADV are further discovered, and the corresponding drought policies and countermeasures that need to be strengthened and controlled are presented. In addition, these results can also provide scientific basis for regional agricultural drought risk control.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are very grateful to the referees for their insightful and constructive comments and suggestions that have led to an improved version of this paper. This paper is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 71771119, 71371098, 71701105), Postgraduate Research and Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province (SJKY19_0143), Key Research Project of Social Science Fund in Jiangsu Province (No. 16GLA001) and Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No. 2017301).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing, 211106, China

    Huifang Sun & Yaoguo Dang

  2. School of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing, 211189, China

    Wenxin Mao

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  1. Huifang Sun
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  2. Yaoguo Dang
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  3. Wenxin Mao
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Correspondence to Huifang Sun.

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Sun, H., Dang, Y. & Mao, W. Identifying key factors of regional agricultural drought vulnerability using a panel data grey combined method. Nat Hazards 98, 621–642 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03722-0

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