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Design flood recalculation under land surface change

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Abstract

Under the influence of land surface variation, observed flood series are no longer stationary. Therefore, conventional flood frequency analysis methods based on the independent and identically distributed hydrological time series are not authentic, and design flood, which is the core of flood control planning, obtained by conventional methods is inevitably being questioned. In this study, we selected Wangkuai reservoir and Xidayang reservoir catchments in Daqinghe watershed affected by human activities to recalculate design floods. We firstly summarized land-use change and construction of hydraulic structures in the two catchments and found that land-use had changed a lot during 1970–1980, and numerous hydraulic structures had been built which had a significant influence on land surface in both catchments. Then, we used both reconstruction of flood series based on rainfall–runoff relationship and probability distribution methods to reconstruct the annual maximum peak flow series and calculated the design flood peaks under current and past land surface. Finally, we compared the design floods by the two methods with those derived from the direct curve fitting method without taking the land surface change into account, and we found that design flood peak and volume decreased due to land surface change in Wangkuai reservoir catchment and Xidayang reservoir catchment. The results were of great significance for flood control in these two catchments.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation (No. 51209157). We are grateful to Hydrology and Water Resource Survey Bureau of Hebei Province for providing so much rainfall and runoff data.

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    Authors and Affiliations

    1. State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China

      Xiyuan Deng, Weinan Ren & Ping Feng

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    1. Xiyuan Deng
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    2. Weinan Ren
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    3. Ping Feng
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    Corresponding author

    Correspondence to Weinan Ren.

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    Xiyuan Deng and Weinan Ren have contributed equally to this work.

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    Deng, X., Ren, W. & Feng, P. Design flood recalculation under land surface change. Nat Hazards 80, 1153–1169 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2016-z

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    • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2016-z

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