Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Climate change effects on pesticide usage reduction efforts: a case study in China

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

China has announced plans to stabilize its pesticide use by 2020. Yet, future climate change will possibly increase the difficulty of meeting this goal. This study uses econometric estimation to explore how climate impacts Chinese pesticide usage and subsequently to project the future implications of climate change on pesticide use. The results indicate that both atmospheric temperature and precipitation increase pesticide usage. Under current climate change projections, pesticide usage will rise by +1.1 to 2.5% by 2040, +2.4 to 9.1% by 2070, and +2.6 to 18.3% by 2100. Linearly extrapolating the results to 2020 yields an approximately 0.5 to 1.2% increase. Thus, to achieve stabilization, more severe actions are needed to address this increase. Possible actions to achieve the reductions needed include using better monitoring and early warning networks so as to permit early responses to climate change-stimulated increases, enhancing information dissemination, altering crop mix, and promoting nonchemical control means. Additionally, given that increased pesticide usage generally increases health and environmental damage, there may be a need to more widely disseminate safe application procedure information while also strengthening compliance with food safety regulations. Furthermore, pest control strategies will need to be capable of evolving as climate change proceeds. Globally, efforts could be made to (1) scale up agrometeorological services, especially in developing countries; (2) use international frameworks to better align the environmental and health standards in developing countries with those in developed countries; and (3) adapt integrated pest management practices to climate change, especially for fruits and vegetables.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Attavanich W, McCarl BA (2014) How is CO2 affecting yields and technological progress? A statistical analysis. Clim Chang 124(4):747–762

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bazoche P, Combris P, Giraud-Haraud E, Seabra Pinto A, Bunte F, Tsakiridou E (2014) Willingness to pay for pesticide reduction in the EU: nothing but organic? Eur Rev Agric Econ 4(1):87–109

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Birch AN, Begg GS, Squire GR (2011) How agro-ecological research helps to address food security issues under new IPM and pesticide reduction policies for global crop production systems. J Exp Bot 62(10):3251–3261

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Breusch TS, Pagan AR (1980) The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. Rev Eco Stud 47(1):239–253

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carvalho FP (2006) Agriculture, pesticides, food security and food safety. Environ Sci Policy 9(7–8):685–692

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen C, McCarl BA (2001) An investigation of the relationship between pesticide usage and climate change. Clim Chang 50(4):475–487

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen C, Qian Y, Chen Q, Tao C, Li C, Li Y (2011) Evaluation of pesticide residues in fruits and vegetables from Xiamen, China. Food Control 22(7):1114–1120

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen R, Huang J, Qiao F (2013) Farmers’ knowledge on pest management and pesticide use in Bt cotton production in China. China Econ Rev 27:15–24

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Delcour I, Spanoghe P, Uyttendaele M (2015) Literature review: impact of climate change on pesticide use. Food Res Int 68:7–15

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ding G, Tian Y (2014) Organophosphate pesticide exposure and child health in China. Environ Sci Pollut R 21(1):759–760

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fischer G, Winiwarter W, Cao GY, Ermolieva T, Hizsnyik E, Klimont Z, Wiberg D, Zheng XY (2011) Implications of population growth and urbanization on agricultural risks in China. Popul Environ 33(2):243–258

    Google Scholar 

  • Ghimire N, Woodward RT (2013) Under- and over-use of pesticides: an international analysis. Ecol Econ 89:73–81

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gregory PJ, Johnson SN, Newton AC, Ingram JS (2009) Integrating pests and pathogens into the climate change/food security debate. J Exp Bot 60(10):2827–2838

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grovermann C, Schreinemachers P, Berger T (2013) Quantifying pesticide overuse from farmer and societal points of view: an application to Thailand. Crop Prot 53:161–168

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hansen JW, Zebiak S, Coffey K (2014) Shaping global agendas on climate risk management and climate services: an IRI perspective. Earth Persp. doi:10.1186/2194-6434-1-13

  • Hartzler B (2005) Herbicides and cold weather. http://www.ipm.iastate.edu/ipm/icm/2005/5-2-2005/herbcold.html. Cited 2 Jul 2017

  • Hausman JA (1978) Specification tests in econometrics. Econometrica 46(6):1251–1271

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hillocks RJ (2012) Farming with fewer pesticides: EU pesticide review and resulting challenges for UK agriculture. Crop Prot 31(1):85–93

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Horowitz JK, Lichtenberg E (1994) Risk-reducing and risk-increasing effects of pesticides. J Agr Econ 45(1):82–89

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hou Y, Ma L, Gao ZL, Wang FH, Sims JT, Ma WQ, Zhang FS (2013) The driving forces for nitrogen and phosphorus flows in the food chain of China, 1980 to 2010. J Environ Qual 42(4):962–971

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu R, Huang X, Huang J, Li Y, Zhang C, Yin Y, Chen Z, Jin Y, Cai J, Cui F (2015) Long- and short-term health effects of pesticide exposure: a cohort study from China. PLoS One 10(6):e0128766

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang S (2010) Global trade of fruits and vegetables and the role of consumer demand. In: Hawkes C, Blouin C, Henson S, Drager N, Dubé L (eds) Trade, food, diet and health: perspectives and policy options. Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester, pp 60–76

    Google Scholar 

  • Huang J, Wu Y, Rozelle S (2009) Moving off the farm and intensifying agricultural production in Shandong: a case study of rural labor market linkages in China. Agric Econ 40(2):203–218

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014) Climate Change 2014 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Part B: Regional Aspects. Cambridge University Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Ju H, van der Velde M, Lin E, Xiong W, Li Y (2013) The impacts of climate change on agricultural production systems in China. Clim Chang 120(1):313–324

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Just RE, Pope RD (1979) Production function estimation and related risk considerations. Am J Agr Econ 61(2):276–284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kiritani K (2006) Predicting impacts of global warming on population dynamics and distribution of arthropods in Japan. Popul Ecol 48:5–12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koleva NG, Schneider UA (2009) The impact of climate change on the external cost of pesticide applications in US agriculture. Int J Agr Sust 7(3):203–216

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lamichhane JR, Barzman M, Booij K, Boonekamp P, Desneux N, Huber L, Kudsk P, Langrell SRH, Ratnadass A, Ricci P, Sarah J-L, Messéan A (2015) Robust cropping systems to tackle pests under climate change. A review. Agron Sustain Dev 35:443–459

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lamichhane JR, Dachbrodt-Saaydeh S, Kudsk P, Messéan A (2016) Toward a reduced reliance on conventional pesticides in European agriculture. Plant Dis 100(1):10–24

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li D, Nanseki T, Takeuchi S, Song M, Chen T, Zhou H (2012) Farmers’ behaviors, perceptions and determinants of pesticides application in China: evidence from six eastern provincial–level regions. J Fac Agric Kyushu Univ 57(1):255–263

    Google Scholar 

  • Li Q, Huang J, Luo R, Liu C (2013) China’s labor transition and the future of China’s rural wages and employment. China World Econ 21(3):4–24

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li H, Zeng EY, You J (2014) Mitigating pesticide pollution in China requires law enforcement, farmer training, and technological innovation. Environ Toxicol Chem 33(5):963–971

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lichtenberg E (2013) Economics of pesticide use and regulation. In: Shogren JF (ed) Encyclopedia of energy, natural resource, and environmental economics. Elsevier, Waltham, pp 86–97

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Liu Y, Pan X, Li J (2015) A 1961–2010 record of fertilizer use, pesticide application and cereal yields: a review. Agron Sustain Dev 35(1):83–93

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCarl BA, Miller SF (1983) Pest management: the international dimensions of pesticides, labor, and trade. International Plant Protection Center, Oregon State University, October 1983

  • McCarl BA, Rettig RB (1983) Influence of hatchery smolt releases on adult salmon production and its variability. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 40(11):1880–1886

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mendelsohn R, Nordhaus D, Shaw D (1994) The impact of global warming on agriculture: a Ricardian analysis. Am Econ Rev 84(4):753–771

    Google Scholar 

  • Ministry of Agriculture of China (2015) The action plan for zero increase in pesticide use by 2020 [in Chinese]. http://www.moa.gov.cn/zwllm/tzgg/tz/201503/t20150318_4444765.htm. Cited 01 Feb 2016

  • Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA, Manning MR, Rose SK, van Vuuren DP, Carter TR, Emori S, Kainuma M, Kram T, Meehl GA, Mitchell JFB, Nakicenovic N, Riahi K, Smith SJ, Stouffer RJ, Thomson AM, Weyant JP, Wilbanks TJ (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463(7282):747–756

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • National Bureau of Statistics of China (2001-2014a) China Statistical Yearbook. http://www.stats.gov.cn/enGliSH/Statisticaldata/AnnualData/. Cited 13 Apr 2016

  • National Bureau of Statistics of China (2001-2014b) China Rural Statistical Yearbook [in Chinese]. http://tongji.cnki.net/kns55/navi/HomePage.aspx?id=N2017030076&name=YMCTJ&floor=1. Cited 13 Apr 2016

  • Okonya JS, Kroschel J (2015) A cross-sectional study of pesticide use and knowledge of smallholder potato farmers in Uganda. Biomed Res Int 2015:9. doi:10.1155/2015/759049

  • Patterson DT, Westbrook JK, Joyce RJV, Lingren PD, Rogasik J (1999) Weeds, insects, and diseases. Clim Chang 43(4):711–727

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peshin R, Zhang W (2014) Integrated pest management and pesticide use. In: Pimentel D, Peshin R (eds) Integrated pest management: pesticide problems, vol 3. Springer, Netherlands, pp 1–46

    Google Scholar 

  • Peshin R, Bandral R, Zhang W, Wilson L, Dhawan AK (2009) Integrated pest management: a global overview of history, programs and adoption. In: Peshin R, Dhawan AK (eds) Integrated pest management: innovation-development process, vol 1. Springer, Netherlands, pp 1–49

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A, Yang XB, Epstein PR, Chivian E (2001) Climate change and extreme weather events: implications for food production, plant diseases, and pests. Glob Chang Hum Health 2(2):90–104

  • Schreinemachers P, Tipraqsa P (2012) Agricultural pesticides and land use intensification in high, middle and low income countries. Food Policy 37(6):616–626

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shakhramanyan NG, Schneider UA, McCarl BA (2013) US agricultural sector analysis on pesticide externalities -- the impact of climate change and a Pigovian tax. Clim Chang 117(4):711–723

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shu F (2016) Summary and analysis of 2015 pesticides production and consumption in China [in Chinese]. Pestic Mark News 21:31–33

    Google Scholar 

  • Stigter CJ (2008) Agrometeorology from science to extension: assessment of needs and provision of services. Agric Ecosyst Environ 126(3–4):153–157

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun B, Zhang L, Yang L, Zhang F, Norse D, Zhu Z (2012) Agricultural non-point source pollution in China: causes and mitigation measures. Ambio 41(4):370–379

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tall A, Jay A, Hansen J (2013) Scaling up climate services for farmers in Africa and South Asia workshop report. CCAFS working paper no. 40. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Copenhagen Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org

    Google Scholar 

  • Tall A, Hansen J, Jay A, Campbell B, Kinyangi J, Aggarwal PK, Zougmoré R (2014) Scaling up climate services for farmers: mission possible, learning from good practice in Africa and South Asia. CCAFS report no. 13. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Copenhagen Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org

    Google Scholar 

  • Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. B Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thiers P (1997) Successful pesticide reduction policies: learning from Indonesia. Soc Nat Resour 10(3):319–328

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • United States General Accounting Office (US GAO) (2001) Agricultural pesticides: management improvements needed to further promote integrated pest management. http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d01815.pdf. Cited 20 March 2017

  • Wang Q, Lu G (1999) A brief analysis on IPM in China [in Chinese]. Hubei Plant Prot 6:30–32

    Google Scholar 

  • Wickham H, Chang W (2017) Smoothed conditional means. http://ggplot2.tidyverse.org/reference/geom_smooth.html. Cited 19 Apr 2017

  • Widawsky D, Rozelle S, Jin S, Huang J (1998) Pesticide productivity, host-plant resistance and productivity in China. Agric Econ 19(1):203–217

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wiersma J (2017) Herbicide performance and crop injury with cool weather. http://blog-crop-news.extension.umn.edu/2017/05/herbicide-performance-and-crop-injury.html. Cited 2 Jul 2017

  • Xu C-H, Xu Y (2012) The projection of temperature and precipitation over China under RCP scenarios using a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Atmos Oceanic Sci Lett 5(6):527–533

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang W, Jiang F, Ou J (2011) Global pesticide consumption and pollution: with China as a focus. http://www.iaees.org/publications/journals/piaees/articles/2011-1(2)/Global-pesticide-consumption-pollution.pdf. Cited 22 Jul 2016

  • Zhang C, Guanming S, Shen J, Hu R (2015) Productivity effect and overuse of pesticide in crop production in China. J Integr Agr 14(9):1903–1910

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou J, Jin S (2009) Safety of vegetables and the use of pesticides by farmers in China: evidence from Zhejiang province. Food Control 20(11):1043–1048

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zilberman D, Millock K (1997) Pesticide use and regulation: making economic sense out of an externality and regulation nightmare. J Agr Resour Econ 22(2):321–332

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the New Faculty Start-up Grant #16X100040010 at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, China. The initial work of this study received helpful feedback from scientists working at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. The authors also thank the editor and the two anonymous reviewers for their valuable feedback and suggestions, which substantially helped to improve this work.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Agriculture and Biology, Institute of New Rural Development, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, 200240, China

    Yuquan W. Zhang

  2. Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA

    Bruce A. McCarl

  3. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Yibo Luan

  4. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 2361, Berlin, Germany

    Ulrich Kleinwechter

Authors
  1. Yuquan W. Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Bruce A. McCarl
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Yibo Luan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Ulrich Kleinwechter
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Yuquan W. Zhang.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Zhang, Y.W., McCarl, B.A., Luan, Y. et al. Climate change effects on pesticide usage reduction efforts: a case study in China. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 23, 685–701 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-017-9755-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-017-9755-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation