Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Predicting impacts of global warming on population dynamics and distribution of arthropods in Japan

  • Review
  • Special feature: Global climate change and the dynamics of biological communities
  • Published:
Population Ecology

Abstract

The mean surface temperature rose by 1.0°C over the last 40 years in Japan. Changes in the pest status, distribution range, winter mortality, and the synchronization in phenology were examined. The increase in the number of annual generations of each taxon was predicted based on the lower developmental threshold and the thermal constant. Increasing damage due to rice- and fruit-infesting bugs, their simultaneous outbreaks and the poleward geographic spread observed for six species may be triggered by global warming. The winter mortality of adults of Nezara viridula and Halyomorpha halys is predicted to be reduced by 15% by each rise of 1°C. More than 50 species of butterflies showed northward range expansions and ten species of previously migrant butterflies established on Nansei Islands during 1966–1987. Global warming may be responsible for the recent decline in abundance of Plutella xylostella and the increase in Helicoverpa armigera and Trichoplusia ni. In general, global warming may work in favour of natural enemies (except for spiders) by increasing the number of generations more than in their host species. Biological control utilizing native natural enemies is expected to become a more important control tactic in the future. Greenhouse culture may provide a model of a temperate agroecosystem after global warming. The increasing occurrence of alien species of tropical origin in association with the increase in pesticide applications might be expected. Interception of alien pests by plant quarantine followed by integrated pest management is needed.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ando Y (1978) Studies on egg diapause in the false melon beetle, Atrachya menetriesi Faldermann (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). Bull Fac Agric Hirosaki Univ 30:131–215

    Google Scholar 

  • Bazzaz FA (1990) The response of natural ecosystems to the rising global CO2 levels. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 21:167–196

    Google Scholar 

  • Harrington R, Bale JS, Tatchell GM (1995) Aphids in a changing climate. In: Harrington R, Stork NE (eds) Insects in a changing environment. Academic Press, New York, pp 125–155

    Google Scholar 

  • Harrington R, Fleming RA, Woiwod IP (2001) Climate change impacts on insect management and conservation in temperate regions: can they be predicted? Agric For Entomol 3:233–240

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hayashi H (1997) Historical changes and control of rice stink bug complex causing the pecky rice (in Japanese). Syokubutu-Boeki 51:455–461

    Google Scholar 

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001) Summary for policymakers. http://www.ipcc.ch/.IPCC

  • Ishiguri Y (2004) Changes in the phenology of the summer fruit tortrix, Adoxophyes orana fasciata, from 1980–2002 in apple orchards in Aomori prefecture (in Japanese with English summary). Annu Rep Plant Protect North Jpn 55:247–251

    Google Scholar 

  • Ito K (2004) The role of the feeding habits of Trigonotylus caelestialium (Kirkaldy) (Heteroptera:Miridae) on the production of pecky rice grains with special reference to the occurrence of split-hull paddy (in Japanese with English summary). Jpn Appl Entomol Zool 48:23–32

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Japan Meteorological Agency (2005) http://www.jma.go.jp/

  • Kiritani K (1971) Distribution and abundance of the southern green stink bug, Nezara viridula. In: Proceedings of the Symposium on Rice Insects. TARC, MAF, Tokyo, pp 235–248

  • Kiritani K (1979) Pest management in rice. Annu Rev Entomol 24:279–312

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kiritani K (1983) Changes in cropping practices and the incidence of hopper-born virus disease of rice in Japan. In: Plumb RT, Thresh JM (eds) Plant virus epidemiology. Blackwell, Oxford, pp 239–247

    Google Scholar 

  • Kiritani K (1988) Effects of climate change on the insect fauna (in Japanese). Meteorol Res Rept 162:137–141

    Google Scholar 

  • Kiritani K(1990) Traits of crop pests in relation to agroecosystems. In: Kiritani K, Hokyo N (eds) Crop pests (in Japanese). Japanese Plant Protection Association, Tokyo, pp 3–10

    Google Scholar 

  • Kiritani K (1991) Potential impacts of global warming on insects (in Japanese). Insectarium 28:212–225

    Google Scholar 

  • Kiritani K (1997a) Formation of exotic insect fauna in Japan. In: Yano E, Matsuo K, Shiyomi M, Andow DA (eds) Biological invasion of ecosystem by pests and beneficial organisms. NIAES Tsukuba Jpn Ser 3:49–65

    Google Scholar 

  • Kiritani K (1997b) The low development threshold temperature and the thermal constant in insects, mites and nematodes in Japan (in Japanese with English summary). Misc Publ Natl Inst Agro-Environ Sci 21:1–72

    Google Scholar 

  • Kiritani K (1999) Shift of IPM strategy for rice under global warming in temperate areas. In: Zhang R, Gu D, Zhang W, Zhou C, Pang Y (eds) Integrated pest management in rice-based ecosystem. Editorial Department, Journal of Zhongshan University, Guangzhou, China, pp 235–244

    Google Scholar 

  • Kiritani K (2000) Integrated biodiversity management in paddy fields: shift of paradigm from IPM toward IBM. IPM Rev 5:175–183

    Google Scholar 

  • Kiritani K (2001) Insects and cimate (in Japanese). Seizando, Tokyo

  • Kiritani K (2004) Toward IBM in paddy ecosystems (in Japanese). Tsukiji-shokan, Tokyo

  • Kiritani K, Iwao S (1967) The biology and life cycle of Chilo suppressalis (Walker) and Tryporyza (Schoenobius) insertulas (Walker) in temperate-climate areas. In: IRRI (ed) The major insect pests of the rice plant. Johns Hopkins, Baltimore, Md., pp 45–101

    Google Scholar 

  • Kiritani K, Morimoto N (2004) Invasive insect and nematode pests from North America. Global Environ Res Assoc Res Initiatives Environ Stud 8:75–88

    Google Scholar 

  • Kiritani K, Naba K (1994) Development and implementation of a rice IPM in Japan. In: Heinrichs EA (ed) Biology and management of rice insects. Wiley, New Delhi, pp 713–731

    Google Scholar 

  • Kiritani K, Yamamura K (2003) Exotic insects and their pathways for invasion. In: Ruiz GM, Carlton JT (eds) Invasive species: vectors and management strategies. Island, Washington, D.C., pp 44–67

    Google Scholar 

  • Kiritani K, Hokyo N, Kimura K (1966) Factors affecting the winter mortality in the southern green stink bug, Nezara viridula L. Ann Soc Entomol Fr (NS) 2:199–207

    Google Scholar 

  • Kiritani K, Nakasuji F, Miyai S (1987) Systems approaches for management of insect-born rice diseases. In: Harris KF (ed) Current topics in vector research, vol 3. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York, pp 57–80

  • Koyama T, Inoue T (2004) Seasonal development of Narathura bazalus (Hewitson) (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae) in the Northern Kanto District, Central Japan. Jpn J Entomol 7:143–153

    Google Scholar 

  • Li D, Jackson RR (1996) How temperature affects development and reproduction in spiders: a review. J Therm Biol 21:245–274

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lincoln DE, Sionit N, Strain BR (1984) Growth and feeding response of Psudoplusia includens (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) to host plants grown in controlled carbon dioxide atomospheres. Environ Entomol 13:1527–1530

    Google Scholar 

  • Matsumura M(2002)Interspecific interaction on wing dimorphism between rice planthoppers and its consequences on population dynamics (in Japanese). Syokubutu-Boeki 56:466–469

    Google Scholar 

  • Matumoto S (2002) How to control fruit bugs this year (in Japanese). Fukuoka Kaju 7:30–33

    Google Scholar 

  • Mishima R, Kuwabara M (1944) Correlation between the temperature in July and the abundance of the second-brood moths of Chilo simplex (in Japanese). Oyo Dobuts Zasshi 15:150–155

    Google Scholar 

  • Morimoto N, Imura O, Kiura T (1998) Potential effects of global warming on the occurrence of Japanese pest insects. Appl Entomol Zool 33:147–155

    Google Scholar 

  • Musolin D, Numata H (2003) Timing of diapause induction and its life-history consequences in Nezara viridula: is it costly to expand the distribution range? Ecol Entomol 28:694 –703

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nakasuji F (1988) Migration of butterflies and its evolutionary adaptation (in Japanese). Special Issue Jpn Soc Lepidoptera 6:211–249

    Google Scholar 

  • Ohira Y (2003) Outbreak of the stink bugs attacking fruit trees in 2002 (in Japanese). Syokubutu-Boeki 57:164–168

    Google Scholar 

  • Parmesan C (1996) Climate change and species’ range. Nature 382:765–766

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parmesan C, Ryrholm N, Stefanescu C, et al. (1999) Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming. Nature 399:579–583

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peng Y, Zhao J, Chen J, Hu C (1999) Effect of temperature on the ontogeny and fecundity of Pirata piraticus (Clerk). In: Zhang R, Gu D, Zhang W, Zhou C, Pang Y (eds) Integrated pest management in rice-based ecosystem. Editorial Department, Journal of Zhongshan University, Guangzhou, China, pp 222–226

    Google Scholar 

  • Plant Protection Division, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (1986) Studies on the prediction of occurrence of fruit infesting stink bugs (in Japanese). Special report on disease and insect outbreak forecasting work, no. 34, pp 149

  • Root TL, Schneider SH (1993) Can large-scale climatic models be linked with multiscale ecological studies? Conserv Biol 7:256–270

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roy DB, Sparks TH (2000) Phenology of British butterflies and climate change. Global Change Biol 6:407–416

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scriber JM, Slansky F (1981) The nutritional ecology of immature insects. Annu Rev Entomol 26:183–211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shimizu, T. Kawasaki K, Hinomoto N (2001) The factor limiting the northern distribution of Orius strigicollis (Heteroptera, Anthocoridae) (in Japanese with English summary). Jpn J Entomol 4:129–141

    Google Scholar 

  • Shiraishi M (2001) Occurrence of rice bugs causing the pecky rice in 2001 (in Japanese). Syokubutu-Boeki 55:445–446

    Google Scholar 

  • Sionit N (1983) Response of soybean to two levels of mineral nutrition in CO2 enriched atmosphere. Crop Sci 23:329–333

    Google Scholar 

  • Suzuki Y (2004) Essential points in managing insect pests of rice (in Japanese). Jpn Agric Technol 48:17–22

    Google Scholar 

  • Thomas CD, Bodsworth EJ, Wilson RJ, Simmons AD, Davies ZG, Musche M, Conradt L (2001) Ecological and evolutionary processes at expanding range margins. Nature 411:577–581

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Tomokuni M, Yasunaga T, Takai M, Yamashita I, Kawamura M, Kawasawa T (1993) A field guide to japanese bugs: terrestrial heteropterans (in Japanese). Zen-Nokyo, Tokyo

    Google Scholar 

  • Tsutsui K (1954) Studies on the correlation of the fluctuation of outbreak of the rice stem borer and the water temperature in the rice field (in Japanese). Bull Div Plant Breed Cultiv Tokai Kinki Nat Agric Exp Stn 1:49–52

    Google Scholar 

  • Utida S (1958) On fluctuations in population density of the rice stem borer, Chilo suppressalis. Ecology 39:587–599

    Google Scholar 

  • Yamaguchi T, Kiritani K, Matsuhira K, Fukuda K (2001) The influence of unusual hot weather on the occurrence of several arthropod crop pests (in Japanese with English summary). Jpn J Appl Entomol Zool 45:1–7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yamamura K, Kiritani K (1998) A simple method to estimate the potential increase in the number of generations under global warming in temperate zones. Appl Entomol Zool 33:289–298

    Google Scholar 

  • Yamamura K, Yokozawa M (2002) Prediction of a geographical shift in the prevalence of rice stripe virus disease transmitted by the small brown planthopper, Laodelphax striatellus, under global warming. Appl Entomol Zool 37:181–190

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yase J (2005) Characteristics of Trichoplusia ni as a vegetable pest (in Japanese). Syokubutu-Boeki 59:14–18

    Google Scholar 

  • Yokosuka T (2001) Biology and control of Leptocorisa chinensis causing pecky rice (in Japanese). Syokubutu-Boeki 55:455–458

    Google Scholar 

  • Yoshio M, Ishii M (2001) A phenological study on northward invasion of the great mormon, Papilio memnon L (in Japanese with English summary). Jpn J Ecol 51:125–130

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

I thank D. Andow, T. Ikemoto, Y. Suzuki, S. Kamitani, K. Yamamura and H. Yamashita for valuable comments and encouragement.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. , 1020-292 Futo, Ito, 413-0231, Japan

    Keizi Kiritani

Authors
  1. Keizi Kiritani
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Keizi Kiritani.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Kiritani, K. Predicting impacts of global warming on population dynamics and distribution of arthropods in Japan. Popul Ecol 48, 5–12 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10144-005-0225-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10144-005-0225-0

Keywords

Search

Navigation