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A global analysis of residential heating and cooling service demand and cost-effective energy consumption under different climate change scenarios up to 2050

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Abstract

Climate change and energy service demand exert influence on each other through temperature change and greenhouse gas emissions. We have consistently evaluated global residential thermal demand and energy consumption up to the year 2050 under different climate change scenarios. We first constructed energy service demand intensity (energy service demand per household) functions for each of three services (space heating, space cooling, and water heating). The space heating and cooling demand in 2050 in the world as a whole become 2.1–2.3 and 3.8–4.5 times higher than the figures for 2010, whose ranges are originated from different global warming scenarios. Cost-effective residential energy consumption to satisfy service demand until 2050 was analyzed keeping consistency among different socio-economic conditions, ambient temperature, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission pathways using a global energy assessment model. Building shell improvement and fuel fuel-type transition reduce global final energy consumption for residential thermal heating by 30% in 2050 for a 2 °C target scenario. This study demonstrates that climate change affects residential space heating and cooling demand by regions, and their desirable strategies for cost-effective energy consumption depend on the global perspectives on CO2 emission reduction. Building shell improvement and energy efficiency improvement and fuel fuel-type transition of end-use technologies are considered to be robust measures for residential thermal demand under uncertain future CO2 emission pathways.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the World Climate Research Program’s Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the US Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and has led the development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, Kizugawadai 9-2, Kizugawa-shi, Kyoto, 612-0292, Japan

    Keii Gi, Fuminori Sano, Ayami Hayashi, Toshimasa Tomoda & Keigo Akimoto

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  1. Keii Gi
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  2. Fuminori Sano
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  3. Ayami Hayashi
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  4. Toshimasa Tomoda
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  5. Keigo Akimoto
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Keii Gi.

Appendix

Appendix

Table 5 shows the adjusted R 2 for Eqs. (5), (6), (7), (8), (9), and (10). The datasets used for derivation of service demand intensity functions for space heating, space cooling, and water heating are shown in Table 6.

Table 5 Adjusted R 2 of the least-square method for Eqs. (5), (6), (7), (8), (9), and Eq. (10)
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Table 6 Datasets used for derivation of service demand intensity functions for space heating, space cooling, and water heating
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Gi, K., Sano, F., Hayashi, A. et al. A global analysis of residential heating and cooling service demand and cost-effective energy consumption under different climate change scenarios up to 2050. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 23, 51–79 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-016-9728-6

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