Abstract
Space heating in buildings represents nearly half of the final heat demand in Europe. The potential to save emissions from existing fossil-based heating supply systems is substantial. The Netherlands announced in 2018 its decision to phase out natural gas by 2050 and to supply buildings from 2021 with sustainable heating. Models with a high level of spatial resolution can support the assessment of potential low-carbon heating systems at the local level. This study introduces the Vesta MAIS model, an open-source tool developed for local governments and urban planners in the Netherlands to support the development of municipal roadmaps. The method presented in this study can be applied for a neighbourhood or city and provides new insights for Dutch local authorities and researchers on the suitability and limitations of the Vesta MAIS model. Four scenarios, including individual and district heating technologies and building shell improvements, are compared up to 2030 from a techno-economic and environmental perspective. Our results demonstrate that district heating appears to be the most suitable strategy for the studied area, but with subtle underlying differences in the optimal levels of network temperature, heat density and building insulation. A further investigation of the most favourable combination of these parameters, the use of local data, and the inclusion of additional criteria, next to costs and CO2 emissions, is suggested to increase the practical use of model outcomes. This research serves as a showcase emphasizing the importance of a local analysis in the decision-making of potential heating strategies.
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Data availability
The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
Abbreviations
- ATES:
-
Aquifer thermal energy storage
- CAPEX:
-
Capital expenditure
- CCGT:
-
Combined cycle gas turbine
- DH:
-
District heating
- HP(s):
-
Heat pump(s)
- HT:
-
High temperature
- HTDH:
-
High-temperature district heating
- Ins A:
-
Insulation to energy label A+
- Ins B:
-
Insulation to energy label B
- LCOH:
-
Levelized cost of heat
- LT:
-
Low temperature
- LTDH:
-
Low-temperature district heating
- O&M:
-
Operation and maintenance
- OPEX:
-
Operational expenditure
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank Folckert van der Molen from the Vesta MAIS team in the Netherlands Environmental Agency for his contribution and valuable review. We would also like to thank four anonymous reviewers that contributed to improving the paper.
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Sara Herreras Martínez, Max Uyttewaal: conceptualization, methodology, investigation, formal analysis, visualization and writing—original draft preparation. Robert Harmsen, Wen Liu: writing—reviewing and editing
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Table A1
Building performance for residential building arquetypes as considered in the Vesta MAIS model (DOCX 38.8 kb)
Table A2
Building performance for non-residential buildings arquetypes as considered in the Vesta MAIS model (DOCX 40 kb)
Table A3
Final heat demand and building improvement costs of refurbishment residential buildings. (aBuildings constructed from year 2006 onwards have already insulation up to energy label B). (bThe investment costs data for building upgrades are based on CE Delft (2013)) (DOCX 37 kb)
Table A4
Final heat demand and building improvement costs of refurbishment non-residential buildings. (aThe investment costs data for building upgrades are based on CE Delft (2015)) (DOCX 36 kb)
Table A5
Overview of the CBS sub-neighbourhoods and the sub-neighbourhoods used in this study and the share of buildings connected to the existing HTDH in the current situation and under the assumption in Vesta MAIS before the adjustment made (DOCX 29 kb)
Table A6
Techno-economic data used for the scenarios. (aThe economy of scale factor assumes a costs reduction for apartment buildings in 2030, when all apartments instal the HP system at the same time) (DOCX 34 kb)
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Herreras Martínez, S., Uyttewaal, M., Liu, W. et al. Exploring sustainable heating solutions for buildings at the neighbourhood level. Energy Efficiency 14, 93 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-021-10004-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-021-10004-x