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A multi-criteria geographic information systems approach for the measurement of vulnerability to climate change

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Abstract

A flexible procedure for the development of a multi-criteria composite index to measure relative vulnerability under future climate change scenarios is presented. The composite index is developed using the Weighted Ordered Weighted Average (WOWA) aggregation technique which enables the selection of different levels of trade-off, which controls the degree to which indicators are able to average out others. We explore this approach in an illustrative case study of the United States (US), using future projections of widely available indicators quantifying flood vulnerability under two scenarios of climate change. The results are mapped for two future time intervals for each climate scenario, highlighting areas that may exhibit higher future vulnerability to flooding events. Based on a Monte Carlo robustness analysis, we find that the WOWA aggregation technique can provide a more flexible and potentially robust option for the construction of vulnerability indices than traditionally used approaches such as Weighted Linear Combinations (WLC). This information was used to develop a proof-of-concept vulnerability assessment to climate change impacts for the US Army Corps of Engineers. Lessons learned in this study informed the climate change screening analysis currently under way.

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Notes

  1. This holds true when higher values of constituent indicators and the final index values indicate higher levels of vulnerability; alternative definitions of vulnerability would result in differing interpretations.

  2. USACE engineers and scientists are frequently involved in the decision-making process, but the parameters chosen were later made to be interactive for other groups of decision makers via a software platform.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. The College of William and Mary, 427 Scotland Street, Williamsburg, VA, 23185, USA

    Daniel Miller Runfola

  2. Clark University, Worcester, MA, USA

    Samuel Ratick & Nick Giner

  3. Cadmus Corporation, Waltham, MA, USA

    Julie Blue & Nupur Hiremath

  4. Lehman College City University of New York, New York, NY, USA

    Elia Axinia Machado

  5. US Army Corps of Engineers, Hanover, NH, USA

    Kathleen White & Jeffrey Arnold

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  1. Daniel Miller Runfola
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  2. Samuel Ratick
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  3. Julie Blue
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  4. Elia Axinia Machado
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  7. Kathleen White
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Correspondence to Daniel Miller Runfola.

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Runfola, D.M., Ratick, S., Blue, J. et al. A multi-criteria geographic information systems approach for the measurement of vulnerability to climate change. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 22, 349–368 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-015-9674-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-015-9674-8

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