Abstract
This paper analyses age-specific migration exchange between municipal formations (MFs) in Russia based on the net migration and population density data covering the period 2012–2018. Unlike many other developed countries, Russia’s population concentrates in only 2–5% of the country’s territory—in large cities and their suburbs. We utilise population density as an alternative measure for distinguishing between urban and rural populations (which is a formal distinction in most cases) in the urban–rural continuum. The results indicate that internal migration pattern in Russia corresponds to the urbanisation stage of the urban development model and is observed across all age groups. Net migration across all age groups is higher in more densely populated MFs. Migration to more densely populated territories peaks in the 15–19 age group and seems to have no viable alternative directions. Besides the analysis of internal migration role in the urban development patterns in Russia, the paper also contributes to a better understanding of the relationship between age-specific migration and urban development in the Russian context.
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Data availability
Raw data were generated at Rosstat (Database of the municipal formations indicators, https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/munst.htm). Research involved free available statistical information. The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author (Karachurina Liliya, lkarachurina@hse.ru) on reasonable request.
Code availability
Licensed software was used (MS Word, MS Excel, ESRI ArcMap 10.3).
Notes
This age group (i.e., children) might not be “willing” as such as it is likely to be a parental decision.
No data available.
Net migration by age groups is based on administrative data of arrivals and departures applying 9-month threshold for the duration of stay identified through registration documents.
The estimates refer to 2,334 MFs in 2012–2015 and 2,350 MFs in 2016–2018.
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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection: Nikita Mkrtchyan. Methodology: Liliya Karachurina. Writing—original draft preparation: Nikita Mkrtchyan. Writing—review and editing: Liliya Karachurina. All authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Appendices
Appendix A
Population density of MFs in Russia, average for 2016–2018, persons per sq km.
Appendix B
Characteristics of MFs grouped by population size and density
Population density, persons per sq km | MFs population size, thousand people: | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | Over 1,000 | 500–1000 | 250–500 | 100–250 | 50–100 | Less than 50 | |
Share of the population, % | |||||||
Total | 100.00 | 23.54 | 9.33 | 11.34 | 15.05 | 13.50 | 27.24 |
Over 1,000 | 44.14 | 23.54 | 7.57 | 7.03 | 3.58 | 1.62 | 0.80 |
500–1000 | 8.43 | 0.00 | 1.77 | 2.02 | 2.45 | 1.08 | 1.12 |
100–500 | 6.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.59 | 3.17 | 1.26 | 0.88 |
50–100 | 7.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 | 4.14 | 1.88 | 0.44 |
10–50 | 20.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.39 | 6.49 | 12.35 |
1–10 | 11.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.98 | 10.37 |
Less than 1 | 1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1.28 |
Share of the territory, % | |||||||
Total | 100.00 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.21 | 1.95 | 8.10 | 89.61 |
Over 1,000 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
500–1000 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
100–500 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0.03 |
50–100 | 0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.52 | 0.24 | 0.06 |
10–50 | 8.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 2.25 | 6.22 |
1–10 | 27.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.87 | 2.61 | 23.88 |
Less than 1 | 62.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.93 | 59.40 |
Calculated by authors using Rosstat data https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/munst.htm
Appendix C
Characteristics of MFs grouped by remoteness from the center and population density
Population density, persons per sq km | Remoteness from a regional center, km: | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | Center | Less than 50 | 50–100 | 100–200 | 200–300 | over 300 | |
Share of the population, % | |||||||
Total | 100.00 | 39.90 | 13.38 | 11.96 | 16.44 | 9.04 | 9.28 |
Over 1,000 | 44.14 | 35.72 | 2.26 | 2.42 | 1.85 | 0.96 | 0.92 |
500–1000 | 8.43 | 3.50 | 1.26 | 0.55 | 1.19 | 0.86 | 1.08 |
100–500 | 6.87 | 0.35 | 2.43 | 1.10 | 1.41 | 0.81 | 0.78 |
50–100 | 7.20 | 0.30 | 2.28 | 1.58 | 1.90 | 0.72 | 0.42 |
10–50 | 20.21 | 0.03 | 4.35 | 4.74 | 6.62 | 2.99 | 1.49 |
1–10 | 11.64 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 1.54 | 3.35 | 2.53 | 3.47 |
Less than 1 | 1.52 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.19 | 1.11 |
Share of the territory, % | |||||||
Total | 100.00 | 0.22 | 4.61 | 6.40 | 11.81 | 10.62 | 66.33 |
Over 1,000 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
500–1000 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
100–500 | 0.30 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
50–100 | 0.89 | 0.03 | 0.27 | 0.19 | 0.25 | 0.10 | 0.05 |
10–50 | 8.83 | 0.01 | 1.60 | 2.05 | 3.02 | 1.37 | 0.78 |
1–10 | 26.98 | 0.00 | 1.45 | 2.92 | 6.02 | 5.88 | 10.71 |
Less than 1 | 62.73 | 0.00 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 2.44 | 3.23 | 54.73 |
Calculated by authors using Rosstat data https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/munst.htm
Appendix D
Age-specific net migration by population density, b-coefficients, 2012–2015, 2016–2018
Age group | b-coefficients | Adjusted R-squared | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
2012–2015 | 2016–2018 | 2012–2015 | 2016–2018 | |
0–4 | 2.309*** | 2.744*** | 0.076 | 0.078 |
5–9 | 2.609*** | 2.682*** | 0.173 | 0.132 |
10–14 | 1.558*** | 1.514*** | 0.099 | 0.106 |
15–19 | 11.542*** | 6.092*** | 0.324 | 0.186 |
20–24 | 6.401*** | -1.563*** | 0.252 | 0.019 |
25–29 | 6.553*** | 6.780*** | 0.265 | 0.227 |
30–34 | 3.495*** | 3.821*** | 0.182 | 0.128 |
35–39 | 1.768*** | 1.689*** | 0.108 | 0.091 |
40–44 | 1.066*** | 0.820*** | 0.061 | 0.043 |
45–49 | 0.700*** | 0.436*** | 0.038 | 0.014 |
50–54 | 0.784*** | 0.643*** | 0.049 | 0.035 |
55–59 | 1.151*** | 0.855*** | 0.059 | 0.051 |
60–64 | 1.178*** | 1.058*** | 0.047 | 0.08 |
65–69 | 1.131*** | 1.123*** | 0.043 | 0.103 |
70 + | 1.274*** | 1.158*** | 0.127 | 0.178 |
Population total | 2.591*** | 1.767*** | 0.271 | 0.165 |
25–39 | 3.892*** | 3.736*** | 0.234 | 0.189 |
50 + | 1.124*** | 0.957*** | 0.084 | 0.099 |
*** 1% significance level.
Calculated by authors using Rosstat datahttps://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/munst.htm
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Liliya, K., Nikita, M. Internal migration and population concentration in Russia: age-specific patterns. GeoJournal 87, 4741–4762 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-021-10525-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-021-10525-z