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Examining the impacts of climatological factors and technological advancement on wheat production: A road framework for sustainable grain production in India

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Abstract

This study marks the pioneering use of time-series econometric techniques and methods, including ARDL, FMOLS, and CCR framework, to examine the short-run dynamic and long-run impacts of climatic change and agricultural technologies on wheat production in India. The research covers the period from 1991 to 2018, thereby spanning nearly three decades. To enhance the assessment of factors influencing wheat production, we incorporated agricultural employment, agricultural credit, and cultivated land into the empirical model. By doing so, we aimed to gain a deeper understanding of the influence of fundamental factors on wheat production dynamics during the study period. In addition, the Granger causality test was employed to determine causational direction among the underlying variables. Results indicate that climatological factors such as precipitation pattern and carbon emissions contribute to an increase in wheat production. In addition, the results indicate that advanced technology has considerably contributed to the increase in wheat production. The ARDL method's long-term results were confirmed and validated by econometric techniques including FMOLS and CCR. According to Granger's estimation of causality, the relationship between farm equipment, agricultural labor, and wheat crop yield is bidirectional. The findings regarding causality indicate that climatological factors had a significant impact on wheat production. To mitigate this issue, the government should develop new crop varieties that are well-suited to the agroclimatic conditions.

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Data availability

Data will be made available on request.

Abbreviations

AC:

Agricultural credit

AL:

Agricultural labor

ARDL:

Autoregressive distributed lag model

CCR:

Canonical cointegration regression

CUSUM:

Cumulative sum chart

CUSUMSQ:

CUSUM of square

FMOLS:

Fully modified ordinary least square

GHG:

Greenhouse gas

GOI:

Government of India

MDI:

Meteorological Department of India

IPCC:

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

USDA:

United States Department of Agriculture

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Economics & IB School of Business Studies, Sharda University, Greater Noida-201310, India

    Imran Ali Baig & Yogesh Gupta

  2. Institute of Business Management, GLA University, Mathura, India

    Shan Mohammad

  3. Department of Economics, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi, India

    Vasim Akram

  4. College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, China

    Abbas Ali Chandio

Authors
  1. Imran Ali Baig
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  2. Shan Mohammad
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  3. Vasim Akram
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  4. Abbas Ali Chandio
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  5. Yogesh Gupta
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Contributions

IAB contributed to conceptualization, data curation, formal analysis, and writing—original draft; SM performed writing—review and editing. VA performed formatting and finalized the draft; AAC performed supervision and finalized the draft; YG performed writing—review and editing.

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Correspondence to Abbas Ali Chandio.

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See Fig. 8.

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Baig, I.A., Mohammad, S., Akram, V. et al. Examining the impacts of climatological factors and technological advancement on wheat production: A road framework for sustainable grain production in India. Environ Dev Sustain 26, 12193–12217 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-03746-4

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