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Sustainable maize production and climatic change in Nepal: robust role of climatic and non-climatic factors in the long-run and short-run

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Abstract

Among all other leading challenges of this century, climate change affects people’s livelihoods, particularly those residing in rural areas. This study is the first attempt to assess the Long-run (LR) and Short-run (SR) impacts of climatic factors, namely CO2 emissions, temperature, and precipitation on maize production in Nepal from 1983 to 2016, with the incorporation of cultivated area, fertilizers use, and credit supply as important input factors of maize production. To analyze the time-series dataset, we applied the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), Vector error correction model (VECM), Impulse response function (IRF), and Variance decomposition (VD) methodologies. The results reveal that CO2 emissions and temperature decreased maize production in the short- and long-run while precipitation improved maize production in both cases. Also, cultivated area and fertilizers use significantly contributed to maize production in both periods. The results of the VECM causality indicate that rainfall and cultivated area have two-way causal associations with maize production. The CO2 emissions and credit represent unidirectional causality with maize production in the short-run. Besides, all variables share a significant long-run connection. Finally, the IRF and VD outcomes suggested that the effects of climatic and non-climatic factors are consistent on maize production. The policies recommend that better environmental quality is crucial for sustainable maize production in Nepal.

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Abbreviations

CC:

Climate change

LR:

Long-run

SR:

Short-run

ARDL:

Autoregressive distributed lag

VECM:

Vector error correction model

IRF:

Impulse response function

VD:

Variance decomposition

GDP:

Gross domestic product

ADF:

Augmented dickey-fuller test

PP:

Phillips and perron test

CO2 :

Carbon emission

MP:

Maize production

AR:

Average rainfall

AT:

Average temperature

MA:

Maize area

FC:

Fertilizers consumption

CR:

Credit

ln:

Natural log

\(\mathrm{\rm B}\) :

Beta

\({\alpha }_{0}\) :

Constant term

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, China

    Abbas Ali Chandio & Yuansheng Jiang

  2. Department of Business Administration, Sukkur IBA University, Sindh, Pakistan

    Waqar Akram & Sultan Adeel

  3. School of Economics, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, Pakistan

    Uzma Bashir

  4. School of Economics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China

    Fayyaz Ahmad

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  1. Abbas Ali Chandio
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Chandio, A.A., Akram, W., Bashir, U. et al. Sustainable maize production and climatic change in Nepal: robust role of climatic and non-climatic factors in the long-run and short-run. Environ Dev Sustain 25, 1614–1644 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02111-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02111-1

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