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Logistics infrastructure and export survival in European Union countries

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Abstract

This study investigates the effects of logistics performance on export survival using a sample of 28 European Union (EU-28) exporters and 70 importers for the 2005–2017 period. We find that the mean duration of EU-28 exports is 2.37 years. Furthermore, the duration is two months longer when partners have higher than average levels of Logistics Performance Index (LPI). Estimates from the discrete-time logit model with random effects indicate that improvements in logistics performance in both the exporting and importing country significantly increase the survival of EU-28 exports. We also find that the “hard” logistics of importers have a greater impact on the duration of EU-28 exports than do those of exporters. Conversely, the “soft” logistics of exporters have a greater effect on the duration of EU-28 exports than do those of importers.

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Notes

  1. Different definitions of extensive and intensive margins exist depending on whether the analysis is at the micro or macro level (refer to Creusen et al. 2011 for details).

  2. In the study, Belgium and Luxembourg are considered as a single exporter because trade data for both are combined in CEPII’s BACI database. In the graphs, Belgium–Luxembourg is listed under Belgium.

  3. Excluding intra-EU-28 trade also reduces the difficulty in separating the effects of logistics from other factors that significantly affect trade within the EU (Zaninović et al. 2020).

  4. Presented as ISO3 country codes.

  5. France ranked low on the ease of doing business indicators including EoT in the 2004 report due to the faulty understanding of French law and legal culture. However, the position of France has improved in the rankings following criticisms of the French commentators and institutions in the later years (McCormack 2018).

  6. As Sect. 4.2.2 later demonstrates, this result only holds when “hard” logistics (LPI and LSCI) are considered.

  7. Another extra analysis is based on the modified sample created by merging all spells with a one-year gap into a single, longer spell. The results (not reported here) are qualitatively very similar to those reported in the fourth column of Table 3, confirming the distinctive role of logistics performance in enhancing export survival in Europe.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Economics, Akdeniz University, Kampus, Antalya, Turkey

    Kemal Türkcan

  2. School of Economics, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya

    Socrates Kraido Majune

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  1. Kemal Türkcan
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Correspondence to Kemal Türkcan.

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Appendix

Appendix

See Tables 6, 7 and 8.

Table 6 Exporters and importers included in the study
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Table 7 Variable definitions and data sources
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Table 8 Summary statistics
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Türkcan, K., Majune, S.K. Logistics infrastructure and export survival in European Union countries. Empirica 49, 509–535 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-021-09527-4

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