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Assessment of historical and projected changes in extreme temperatures of Balochistan, Pakistan using extreme value theory

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Abstract

The fundamental consequences of global warming include an upsurge in the intensity and frequency of temperature extremes. This study provides an insight into historical trends and projected changes in extreme temperatures on annual and seasonal scales across “Balochistan, Pakistan”. Historical trends are analyzed through the Mann Kendal test, and extreme temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) are evaluated using generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution for historical period (1991–2020) from the observational data and the two projected periods as near-future (2041–2070) and far-future (2071–2100) using a six-member bias-corrected ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) projections from the coordinate regional downscaling experiment (CORDEX) based on the worst emission scenario (RCP8.5). The evaluation of historical temperature trends suggests that Tmax generally increase on yearly scale and give mixed signals on seasonal scale (winter, spring, summer, and autumn); however, Tmin trends gave mixed signals at both yearly and seasonal scale. Compared to the historical period, the return levels are generally expected to be higher for Tmax and Tmin during the both projection periods in the order as far-future > near-future > historical on yearly and seasonal basis; however, the changes in Tmin are more evident. Station-averaged anomalies of + 1.9 °C and + 3.6 °C were estimated in 100-year return levels for yearly Tmax for near-future and far-future, respectively, while the anomalies in Tmin were found to be + 3.5 °C and + 4.8 °C which suggest the intensified heatwaves but milder colder extreme in future. The findings provide guidance on improved quantification of changing frequencies and severity in temperature extremes and the associated impacts.

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Code/data availability

Historical data for extreme temperature is obtained from the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). The authors do not have the authority to openly distribute this data. The CORDEX Climate Model data used in the study is freely available at: https://www.euro-cordex.net/

Primary codes for GEV distribution fitting are available at: https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/ismev/index.html

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Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledges the Pakistan Meteorological Department for provision of observational data.

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  1. College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan

    Darakshan Naeem, Rizwan Aziz, Muhammad Awais & Sajid Rashid Ahmad

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All authors contributed to this manuscript. The data management and all the analyses were done by D.N. The interpretation of results and visualization was done by M.A. and R. A. The methodology development, overall supervision, and draft and manuscript preparation were done by R.A. Draft review and interpretation of results were carried out by S.R.A.

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Correspondence to Rizwan Aziz.

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Naeem, D., Aziz, R., Awais, M. et al. Assessment of historical and projected changes in extreme temperatures of Balochistan, Pakistan using extreme value theory. Environ Monit Assess 196, 375 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-024-12512-6

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