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Different GCMs yet similar outcome: predicting the habitat distribution of Shorea robusta C.F. Gaertn. in the Indian Himalayas using CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate models

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Abstract

Climate change impact on the habitat distribution of umbrella species presents a critical threat to the entire regional ecosystem. This is further perilous if the species is economically important. Sal (Shorea robusta C.F. Gaertn.), a climax forest forming Central Himalayan tree species, is one of the most valuable timber species and provides several ecological services. Sal forests are under threat due to over-exploitation, habitat destruction, and climate change. Sal’s poor natural regeneration and its unimodal density-diameter distribution in the region illustrate the peril to its habitat. We, modelled the current as well as future distribution of suitable sal habitats under different climate scenarios using 179 sal occurrence points and 8 bioclimatic environmental variables (non-collinear). The CMIP5-based RCP4.5 and CMIP6-based SSP245 climate models under 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 periods were used to predict the impact of climate change on sal’s future potential distribution area. The niche model results predict the mean annual temperature and precipitation seasonality as the most influential sal habitat governing variables in the region. The current high suitability region for sal was 4.36% of the total geographic area, which shows a drastic decline to 1.31% and 0.07% under SSP245 for 2041–60 and 2061–80, respectively. The RCP-based models predicted more severe impact than SSP; however, both RCP and SSP models showed complete loss of high suitability regions and overall shift of species northwards in the Uttarakhand state. We could identify the current and future suitable habitats for conserving sal population through assisted regeneration and management of other regional issues.

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Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge Ms. Anshu Siwach for her assistance in the literature survey. The authors thank the Principal Chief Conservator of Forests (PCCF) and Chief Wildlife Warden (CWLW), Uttarakhand Forest Department, Uttarakhand, for granting the necessary permissions to carry out the field surveys in the protected regions. We thank the two anonymous reviewers for their in-depth review and critical suggestions which improved the manuscript and its readability substantially.

Funding

The corresponding author acknowledges the major funding from the Science and Engineering Research Board (SERB), project no. EEQ/2016/000164, to carry out this study. Siddhartha Kaushal thanks the University Grants Commission, New Delhi for providing financial assistance through CSIR-UGC senior research fellowship. The financial support received through Faculty Research Programme (FRP) grant, Institution of Eminence (IoE), University of Delhi (IoE/2021/12/FRP) is highly acknowledged.

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  1. Sharanjeet Kaur and Siddhartha Kaushal contributed equally and are the co-first authors.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Botany, University of Delhi, Delhi, 110007, India

    Sharanjeet Kaur, Siddhartha Kaushal, K. S. Rao, Rajesh Tandon, Shailendra Goel & Ratul Baishya

  2. CSIR-National Botanical Research Institute, Uttar Pradesh, Lucknow, 226001, India

    Dibyendu Adhikari

  3. IGCMC, WWF-India, 172-B Lodhi Estate, New Delhi, 110003, India

    Krishna Raj

  4. Department of Botany, North-Eastern Hill University, Shillong, 793022, India

    Saroj K. Barik

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Contributions

Ratul Baishya, Sharanjeet Kaur, and Siddhartha Kaushal conceptualized this study and drafted the original manuscript. Sharanjeet Kaur conducted the formal data analyses. Siddhartha Kaushal gathered the field occurrence records, assisted in methodology, and drafted the discussion. Dibyendu Adhikari and Krishna Raj validated the methodology and reviewed the manuscript. K. S. Rao, Rajesh Tandon, Shailendra Goel, and Saroj K. Barik reviewed and edited the manuscript. Ratul Baishya acquired funding, supervised the entire work and reviewed the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Ratul Baishya.

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Kaur, S., Kaushal, S., Adhikari, D. et al. Different GCMs yet similar outcome: predicting the habitat distribution of Shorea robusta C.F. Gaertn. in the Indian Himalayas using CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate models. Environ Monit Assess 195, 715 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11317-3

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