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Mapping the spatial variability of rainfall from a physiographic-based multilinear regression: model development and application to the Southwestern Iberian Peninsula

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Abstract

A physiographic-based multilinear regression model supported by GIS was developed to estimate spatial rainfall variability in the Southwest Iberian Peninsula. The area study includes a wide diversity of landscape features and comprises four Portuguese regions and one Spanish province (totalizing 28,860 km2). The region suffers a very strong Mediterranean influence, with a major cleavage between winter and summer seasons. Thus, the analysis was carried out separately for the wet (October to March) and dry (April to September) semesters. From an initial set of 10 explanatory physiographic variables, five were selected to be used in the multilinear regression, as they allowed generating models by map algebra that fitted well with the last 40 years of monthly rainfall data records. These records were obtained from 163 weather stations, filtered from an initial set of 230 (142 stations in Portugal and 88 in Spain). The correlation between the physiographic-based multilinear regression model and a model obtained by interpolation from rainfall historical data showed to be good or very good in approximately 75% of the area under study. Results show that physiographic-based models can be effectively used to estimate rainfall where there is a lack of rain gauges, or to densify spatial resolution of rainfall between rain gauges.

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Data availability

The authors confirm that the raw data supporting the findings of this study are available within the article. The raw data could be downloaded through the Portuguese and Spanish Official Networks of Hydrometeorological Records (Direção Regional de Agricultura e Pescas (DRAP); Junta de Andalucía (JA); Ministerio para la Transición Ecológica y el Reto Demográfico (MITECO); Sistema Nacional de Informação de Recursos Hídricos (SNIRH)).

https://www.drapc.gov.pt/base/agrometeorologia.htm

https://www.juntadeandalucia.es/agriculturaypesca/ifapa/riaweb/web/

https://www.miteco.gob.es/es/cartografia-y-sig/ide/descargas/otros/default.aspx

https://snirh.apambiente.pt/

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Acknowledgements

This work is the result of a research stay of the first author in the University of Algarve, which was supported by the University of Cadiz (2021-025/PU/PP-EST/MV).

Funding

This work is the result of a research stay of the first author in the University of Algarve, which was supported by the University of Cadiz (2021-025 / PU / PP-EST / MV). This work was supported by the FCT—Foundation for Science and Technology, strategic projects UIDB/04292/2020 granted to MARE and UIDB/04020/2020 granted to CinTurs.

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Correspondence to Verónica Ruiz-Ortiz.

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Ruiz-Ortiz, V., G. P. Isidoro, J.M., Fernandez, H.M. et al. Mapping the spatial variability of rainfall from a physiographic-based multilinear regression: model development and application to the Southwestern Iberian Peninsula. Environ Monit Assess 194, 722 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10312-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10312-4

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