Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Application of a linear regression model to assess the influence of urbanised areas and grazing pastures on the microbiological quality of rural streams

  • Published:
Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Faecal coliform (FC) bacteria were used as a proxy of faecal indicator organisms (FIOs) to assess the microbiological pollution risk for eight mesoscale catchments with increasing lowland influence across north-east Scotland. This study sought to assess the impact of urban areas on microbial contaminant fluxes. Fluxes were lowest in upland catchments where populations are relatively low. By contrast, lowland catchments with larger settlements and a greater number of grazing populations have more elevated FC concentrations throughout the year. Peak FC counts occurred during the summer months (April–September) when biological activity is at its highest. Lowland catchments experience high FC concentrations throughout the year whereas upland catchments exhibit more seasonal variations with elevated summer conditions and reduced winter concentrations. A simple linear regression model based on catchment characteristics provided scope to predict FC fluxes. Percentage of improved grazing pasture and human population explained 90 and 62 % of the variation in mean annual FC concentrations. This approach provides scope for an initial screening tool to predict the impact of urban space and agricultural practice on FC concentrations at the catchment scale and can aid in pragmatic planning and water quality improvement decisions. However, greater understanding of the short-term dynamics is still required which would benefit from higher resolution sampling than the approach undertaken here.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • APHA. (1992). Standard methods for the evaluation of water and wastewater (18th ed.). Washington D.C: American Public Health Association.

    Google Scholar 

  • Badgley, B. D., Florence, I. M. T., & Harwood, V. J. (2010). Quantifying environmental reservoirs of faecal coliforms. Environmental Microbiology, 13, 932–942.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bonton, A., Rouleau, A., Bouchard, C., & Rodriguez, M. J. (2011). Nitrate transport modelling to evaluate source water protection scenarios for a municipal well in an agricultural area. Agricultural Systems, 104, 429–439.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boorman, D. B., Hollis, J. M., & Lilly A. (1995). Hydrology of soil types: a hydrological classification of the soils of the United Kingdom. Institute of Hydrology Report, 126, Wallingford, UK.

  • Bracken, L. J., Wainwright, J., Ali, G. A., Tetzlaff, D., Smith, M. W., Reaney, S. M., & Roy, A. G. (2013). Concepts of hydrological connectivity: research approaches, pathways and future agendas. Earth-Science Reviews, 119, 17–34.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brookes, J. D., Antenucci, J., Hipsey, M., Burch, M. D., Ashbolt, N. J., & Ferguson, C. (2004). Fate and transport of pathogens in lakes and reservoirs. Environment International, 30(5), 741–759.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brown, C. D., Bellamy, P. H., & Dubus, I. G. (2001). Prediction of pesticide concentrations found in rivers in the UK. Pest Management Science, 58, 363–373.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Crowther, J., Kay, D., & Wyer, M. D. (2001). Relationships between microbial water quality and environmental conditions in coastal recreational waters: the Fylde coast, UK. Water Research, 35, 4029–4038.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Crowther, J., Kay, D., & Wyer, M. D. (2002). Faecal-indicator concentrations in waters draining lowland pastoral catchments in the UK: relationships with land use and farming practices. Water Research, 36, 1725–1734.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Crowther, J., Wyer, M. D., Bradford, M., Kay, D., & Francis, C. A. (2003). Modelling faecal indicator concentrations in large rural catchments using land use and topographic data. Journal of Applied Microbiology, 94, 962–973.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Davies-Colley, R. J., Nagels, J. W., Smith, R. A., Young, R. G., & Phillips, C. J. (2004). Water quality impact of dairy cow herd crossing a stream. New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research, 38, 569–576.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dawson, J. J. C., Soulsby, C., Tetzlaff, D., Hrachowitz, M., Dunn, S. M., & Malcolm, I. A. (2008). Influence of hydrology and seasonality on long-term DOC exports from three contrasting upland catchments. Biogeochemistry, 90, 93–113.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dawson, J. J. C., Adhikari, Y. R., Soulsby, C., & Stutter, M. I. (2011). The biogeochemical reactivity of suspended particulate matter at nested sites in the Dee basin, NE Scotland. Science of the Total Environment, 434, 159–170.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • DEFRA. (2003). Strategic review of diffuse water pollution from agriculture: discussion document. London: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, www.defra.gov.uk.

  • Droppo, I. G., Kirshnappan, K. G., Liss, S. N., Marvin, C., & Biberhofer, J. (2011). Modelling sediment-microbial dynamics in the South Nation River, Ontario, Canada: towards the prediction of aquatic and human health risk. Water Research, 45(12), 3797–3809.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Environment Agency. (2009). The microbiology of drinking water—Part 4—Methods for the isolation and enumeration of coliform bacteria and Escherichia coli (including E. coli 0157:H7). Methods for the examination of waters and associated materials, http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/research/commercial/32874.aspx. Accessed 4 Dec 12.

  • European Union (EU). (2000). Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2000 establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy. Official Journal of the European Union, L327, 1–23.

    Google Scholar 

  • European Union (EU). (2006a). European Union (EU) Directive 2006/7/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 February 2006 concerning the management of bathing water quality and repealing Directive 76/160/EEC. Official Journal of the European Union, 64L, 37–51.

    Google Scholar 

  • European Union (EU). (2006b). European Union (EU) Directive 2006/113/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 12 December 2006 on the quality required of shellfish waters. Official Journal of the European Union, L376, 14–20.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fewtrell, L., Kay, D., & Godfree, A. (1998). The microbiological quality of private water supplies. Journal of the Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management, 12, 45–47.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Geldreich, E. E. (1996). Pathogenic agents in freshwater resources. Hydrological Processes, 10, 315–333.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hampson, D., Crowther, J., Bateman, I., Kay, D., Posen, P., Stapleton, C., Wyer, M., Fezzi, C., Jones, P., & Tzanopoulos, J. (2010). Predicting microbial pollution concentrations in UK rivers in response to land use change. Water Research, 44, 4748–4759.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Hathaway, J. M., & Hunt, W. F. (2011). Evaluation of first flush for indicator bacteria and total suspended solids in urban stormwater runoff. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 217, 135–147.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Hrachowitz, M., Soulsby, C., Tetzlaff, D., Dawson, J. J. C., Dunn, S. M., & Malcolm, I. A. (2009). Using longer term data sets to understand transit times in contrasting headwater catchments. Journal of Hydrology, 367, 237–248.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Hrachowitz, M., Savenije, H. H. G., Bloeschl, G., McDonnell, J. J., Sivapalan, M., Pomeroy, J. W., et al. (2013). A decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) - a review. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58(6), 1198–1252

  • Kay, D., Myer, M. D., Crowther, J., Stapleton, C., Bradford, M., McDonald, A., Greaves, J., Francis, C., & Watkins, J. (2005). Predicting faecal indicator fluxes using digital land use data in the UK’s sentinel water framework directive catchment: the ribble study. Water Research, 39, 3697–3981.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kay, D., Edwards, A. C., McDonald, A. T., Stapleton, C. M., Wyer, M., & Crowther, J. (2007). Catchment microbial dynamics: the emergence of a research agenda. Progress in Physical Geography, 31, 59–76.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kay, D., Crowther, J., Stapleton, C. M., Wyer, M. D., Fewtrell, L., Anthony, S., Bradford, M., Edwards, A., Francis, C. A., Hopkins, M., Kay, C., McDonald, A. T., Watkins, J., & Wilkinson, J. (2008). Faecal indicator organism concentrations and catchment export coefficients in the UK. Water Research, 42, 2649–2661.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Kay, D., Anthony, S., Crowther, J., Chnabers, B. J., Nicholson, F. A., Chadwick, D., Stapleton, C. M., & Wyer, M. D. (2010). Microbial water pollution: a screening tool for initial catchment-scale assessment and source apportionment. Science of the Total Environment, 408(23), 5649–5656.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • McGrane, S. J., Tetzlaff, D., & Soulsby, C. (2014). Influence of lowland aquifers and anthropogenic impacts on the isotope hydrology of contrasting mesoscale catchments. Hydrological Processes, 28(3), 793–808.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • McGuire, K. J., & McDonnell, J. J. (2010). Hydrological connectivity of hillslopes and streams: characteristic time scales and nonlinearities. Water Resources Research, 46, W10543.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • National Records of Scotland. (2011). Population census information: 2001. www.gro-scotland.gov.uk. Accessed 28 Aug 12.

  • Neff, J. C., & Asner, G. P. (2001). Dissolved organic carbon in terrestrial ecosystems: synthesis and a model. Ecosystems, 4, 29–48.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Oliver, D. M., Heathwaite, A. L., Fish, R. D., Chadwick, D. R., Hodgson, C. J., Winter, M., & Butler, A. (2009). Scale appropriate modelling of diffuse microbial pollution from agriculture. Progress in Physical Geography, 33, 358–377.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oliver, D. M., Heathwaite, A. L., & Haygarth, P. M. (2010). A ‘culture’ change in catchment microbiology? Hydrological Processes, 24, 2973–2976.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pang, L., Close, M., Goltz, M., Sinton, L., Davies, H., Hall, C., & Stanton, G. (2004). Estimation of septic tank setback distances based on the transport of E. coli and F-RNA phages. Environment International, 29, 907–921.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Petry, C., Soulsby, C., Malcolm, I. A., Malcolm, R., & Youngson, A. F. (2002). Hydrological controls on nutrient concentrations and fluxes in agricultural catchments. Science of the Total Environment, 294, 95–110.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Reid, S. C., Lane, S. N., Montgomery, D. R., & Brookes, C. J. (2007). Does hydrological connectivity improve modelling of coarse sediment delivery in upland environments. Geomorphology, 90, 263–282.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodgers, P. J., Soulsby, C., Hunter, C., & Petry, C. (2003). Microbiological water quality in a lowland agricultural catchment. Science of the Total Environment, 314, 289–302.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodgers, P. J., Soulsby, C., Waldon, S., & Tetzlaff, D. (2005). Using stable isotope tracers to identify hydrological flow paths, residence times and landscape controls in a mesoscale catchment. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2, 1–35.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Soulsby, C., Brewer, M., Petry, J., Dunn, S. M., & Ott, B. (2003). Identifying catchment scale hydrological pathways using a novel approach to end-member mixing analysis in a small agricultural catchment. Journal of Hydrology, 274, 109–128.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Soulsby, C., Tetzlaff, D., Gibbins, C. N., & Malcolm, I. A. (2009). British and Irish rivers. In K. Tockner, U. Uehlinger, & C. T. Robinson (Eds.), European rivers. London: Elsevier.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stone, M. (1974). Cross-validatory choice and assessment of statistical predictions. Journal of Royal Statistics Society, 36, 111–147.

    Google Scholar 

  • Taye, M. T., & Willems, P. (2011). Influence of climate variability on representative QDF predictions of the upper Blue Nile basin. Journal of Hydrology, 411, 355–365.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tetzlaff, D., Soulsby, C., & Birkel, C. (2010). Hydrological connectivity and microbiological fluxes between landscapes and riverscapes: the importance of seasonality. Hydrological Processes, 24, 1231–1235.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tetzlaff, D., Capell, R., & Soulsby, C. (2012). Land use and hydroclimatic influences on Faecal Indicator Organisms in two large Scottish catchments: towards land-use based models as screening tools. Science of the Total Environment, 434, 110–122.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Thorn, C. E., Quilliam, R. S., Williams, A. P., Malham, S. K., Cooper, D., Reynolds, B., & Jones, D. L. (2011). Grazing intensity is a poor predictor of waterbourne Escherichia Coli 0157 activity. Anaerobe, 17, 330–333.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Tong, S. T. Y., & Chen, W. (2002). Modelling the relationship between land use and surface water quality. Journal of Environmental Management, 66, 377–393.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vinten, A. J. A., Sym, G., Advic, K., Crawford, C., Duncan, A., & Merrilees, D. W. (2008). Faecal indicator pollution from a dairy farm in Ayrshire, Scotland: source apportionment, risk assessment and potential of mitigation measures. Water Resources Research, 42, 997–1012.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Walsh, C. J., Roy, A. H., Feminella, J. W., Cottingham, P. D., Groffman, P. M., & Morgan, R. P., II. (2005). The urban syndrome: current knowledge and the search for a cure. North American Benthological Society, 24, 706–723.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Werritty, A. (2002). Living with uncertainty: climate change, river flows and water resource management in Scotland. Science of the Total Environment, 294, 29–40.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We are grateful to Audrey Innes for analysing the bacteria samples and the Scottish Alliance for Geography, Environment and Society (SAGES) for funding this research. This research was undertaken by Dr Scott J. McGrane during his doctoral research at the University of Aberdeen.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Scott J. McGrane.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

McGrane, S.J., Tetzlaff, D. & Soulsby, C. Application of a linear regression model to assess the influence of urbanised areas and grazing pastures on the microbiological quality of rural streams. Environ Monit Assess 186, 7141–7155 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-014-3916-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-014-3916-1

Keywords

Navigation