Abstract
Global warming affects the phenology of the Earth’s flora and fauna, notably by advancing the date at which many plants and animals tend to reproduce. We use fish, where this reproductive acceleration is well-documented, to present a simple approach based on sine curves to predict, in spring spawning fish, the minimum number of days (Δdmin) that spawning is advanced as the result of a given increase in water temperature (Δ°C). We show, via comparison with field estimates, that our simple model’s robust predictions correspond to observed values of Δdmin/Δ°C, and discuss both the potential uses and the limitations of the model.
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Acknowledgements
We thank Ms. Elaine Chu for drafting our figures.
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DP thanks the Sea Around Us, a research initiative supported by philanthropic foundations, notably the Marisla, MAVA, Minderoo, Oak, David and Lucille Packard, and Rockefeller Foundations, as well as the Pew Charitable Trusts and the WWF. CL thanks financial support by the Open Fund of CAS Key Laboratory of Marine Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (KLMEES202004).
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Pauly, D., Liang, C. Temperature and the maturation of fish: a simple sine-wave model for predicting accelerated spring spawning. Environ Biol Fish 105, 1481–1487 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10641-022-01212-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10641-022-01212-0